American Economics Thread

HereToSeePics

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It could be a dead cat bounce for all we know lol don't call it so early.

If you believe the doomsayers that the U.S. is collapsing, then there’s only one economic/monetary outcome: interest rates drop to 0 -> money printing -> inflation. This is ultimately good for broad based U.S. stocks because companies tend to raise prices to account for inflation. In all almost all examples of countries with high inflation, their stock market has always met or beat inflation.


Stonks only go up!
Never fight the FED!

In the long run, yes.
 
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chgough34

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interesting post giving more examples of how incumbency + US scale effects leads to all kinds of mass affluence - software developers at RedHat and sports commentators at NBC (and the tens of millions of Americans that clear >100K and live in the boring suburbs of places like GreenBay and Albany) are able to both benefit from and create their own economies of scale and get the economic ball rolling
 

chgough34

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They revised down most of their job creation numbers as it was already discussed on this forum. One of the months was revised down by 50%! And a lot of the job creation was people finding second jobs.
It is insane how much manipulation the media has engaged in. Major outlets have been doing pro-Biden propaganda since 2022.
“Pro-Biden propaganda” is when the BLS releases QCEW revisions on a regular scheduled basis.

The Current Employment Survey which is used as the main headline for estimates of payrolls, is increasingly unreliable because of higher nonresponse rates (and those nonresponses are not random so survey parameters are simply off). To counteract this problem, there is growing reliance on administrative data - such as unemployment insurance records - everyone formally employed in the U.S. has their employer submit an UI application which lists out the firm, taxable wages, and identity of the employee - and that is published quarterly and annually in the quarterly census of wages and employment. Thus, that is considered more accurate than the CES. But the QCEW has its downsides as well - it will not do a good job measuring informal employment (think for example, a server that works under the table), self-employed individuals (they don’t have to pay UI tax if they don’t want to), and agricultural workers (since they are exempt from UI provisions)
 

chgough34

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He will post some index proving that the job numbers are extremely high and that the American economy is doing well.

Let me tell you the reality of the American economy here: the US economy has been embroiled in stagflation since 2020.

When you analyze the micro reality of the American economy, you will notice a difference in relation to the macro data of the economy that he keeps posting here, the reality is that it has been proven that we can consider that all the reports regarding the American economy are full of falsehoods.
US households uniformly report their household finances as good and that’s even ignoring how partisanship impacts how people perceive their personal finances (since Biden is in the White House, republicans are more likely to report their household finances as doing poorly, compared to identically situated Democrats). The “micro reality” of US households is in aggregate, fine.

It’s the same path travelled by tens of millions of people (as has been the case in the U.S., really since at least the post-1945 period) - do decently enough in high school to get into a regional 4yr; pick a healthcare/business major, get drunk and party for 4 years, graduate into a job market paying 50-70K entry level with 2-3% pay raises each year to do hyper-niche and specific work for an obscure middle market firm, move out to the suburbs, and thereafter be continuously employed until retirement.
 

BoraTas

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“Pro-Biden propaganda” is when the BLS releases QCEW revisions on a regular scheduled basis.

The Current Employment Survey which is used as the main headline for estimates of payrolls, is increasingly unreliable because of higher nonresponse rates (and those nonresponses are not random so survey parameters are simply off). To counteract this problem, there is growing reliance on administrative data - such as unemployment insurance records - everyone formally employed in the U.S. has their employer submit an UI application which lists out the firm, taxable wages, and identity of the employee - and that is published quarterly and annually in the quarterly census of wages and employment. Thus, that is considered more accurate than the CES. But the QCEW has its downsides as well - it will not do a good job measuring informal employment (think for example, a server that works under the table), self-employed individuals (they don’t have to pay UI tax if they don’t want to), and agricultural workers (since they are exempt from UI provisions)
If the errors were because of limitations with the method you would expect as many upwards corrections as downwards corrections. But you don't. You only see downwards corrections, substantial ones at that. You may want to be understanding and assume that they aren't being deliberately optimistic with the figures but then media shouldn't report such figures with a joy until they get a few revisions.
 

Sinnavuuty

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Calling this a stagflation is just fake news.
No, it is not. The official statistical data on the American labor market are being distorted by the US Census Bureau's statistical adjustment model due to the employment of part-time workers and the massive influx of immigrants into the country. Even disregarding these factors, job creation, which has remained at an average of over 200,000, has in reality been close to zero or even negative, as the BLS's own household survey has shown. It is not just the labor market data that is completely distorted; other important indicators of economic performance, when viewed behind the official lens of what the government wants to show, show how the real economy has never recovered from the crisis seen in 2020 due to the pandemic, characterizing stagflation. But the good news for Americans is that this is not only affecting the US but the entire world. Just to give an example, retail sales do not take into account price increases, so higher rates do not necessarily reflect greater demand, but rather because of the impact of inflation on product prices. Although retail sales have increased by 13.2% in the last three years, when adjusted for inflation, the indicator shows a drop of 3.6%, that is, Americans are spending more and buying less, this is a clear sign of impoverishment and not of increasing wealth and economic growth.
 

HighGround

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No, it is not. The official statistical data on the American labor market are being distorted by the US Census Bureau's statistical adjustment model due to the employment of part-time workers and the massive influx of immigrants into the country. Even disregarding these factors, job creation, which has remained at an average of over 200,000, has in reality been close to zero or even negative, as the BLS's own household survey has shown. It is not just the labor market data that is completely distorted; other important indicators of economic performance, when viewed behind the official lens of what the government wants to show, show how the real economy has never recovered from the crisis seen in 2020 due to the pandemic, characterizing stagflation. But the good news for Americans is that this is not only affecting the US but the entire world. Just to give an example, retail sales do not take into account price increases, so higher rates do not necessarily reflect greater demand, but rather because of the impact of inflation on product prices. Although retail sales have increased by 13.2% in the last three years, when adjusted for inflation, the indicator shows a drop of 3.6%, that is, Americans are spending more and buying less, this is a clear sign of impoverishment and not of increasing wealth and economic growth.

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: Stagflation is an economic cycle characterized by slow
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and a high unemployment rate accompanied by inflation. Economic policymakers find this combination particularly difficult to handle, as attempting to correct one of the factors can exacerbate another.

US rGDP growth; 2.5% (2023)
US inflation rate; MoM 0.4 (Feb) 0.4 (Mar) 0.3 (Apr) 0.0 (May) -0.1 (Jun) 0.2 (Jul)
US Unemployment; 1.6% (U-1) 2.1 % (U-2) 4.3% (U-3) 4.5% (U-4) 5.1% (U-5) 7.8% (U-6)

Where is the high unemployment?

Where is the high inflation?

And is 2.5% rGDP growth really "slow growth"?

Though I know this conversation is pointless because half of the people in this thread don't believe US statistical reporting. Which is pretty hilarious to me, considering this is what ignorant Americans think of Chinese statistics. It's like looking in the mirror.
 

chgough34

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If the errors were because of limitations with the method you would expect as many upwards corrections as downwards corrections. But you don't. You only see downwards corrections, substantial ones at that. You may want to be understanding and assume that they aren't being deliberately optimistic with the figures but then media shouldn't report such figures with a joy until they get a few revisions.
The CES has upwards and downwards revisions all the time (and downwards corrections aren’t dispositive - if you have nonresponse bias - it’s very likely that response bias is going to lead to the signs on parameters being systematically biased, not randomly biased)
 
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