American Economics Thread

chgough34

Junior Member
Registered Member
Economies of scale and scale effects are exactly why no country can compete with China.
Economies of scale accrue to firms.

FedEx will not allow UPS to use its infrastructure even if they both have U.S. headquarters. U.S. firms, particularly technology firms and manufacturers, have much broader scale than firms located in the rest of the world.
 

chgough34

Junior Member
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I would think most Americans do have retirement accounts, the the question is how much are people putting in to their retirement accounts. There may be many people only earning 100k and putting 6% in with additional 4% company match, only 10k per year. That is not going to be enough to retire on.
This hypothetical absolutely is enough to retire on. 10K a year from 22 to 65 at a 5% return results in an end balance of $1.465 million. Assuming a 4% dividend yield/interest rate, the 401K generates $58,600 of annual income, then add $25,000 on social security and the retiree now has $83,600 each year for life without touching principal.
How many Americans are able to max out their 401ks? A homeowner maxing out their 401k may be able to get by with minimum savings outside of their 401k (provided once they have 6-24 months emergency savings in cash), but how many Americans actually fit that demographic?
Pretty common - the median net worth of a person nearing retirement is ~400K (
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). Of course, since they are near retirement, they can sell their home and move into a condo - their children have left. At a 4% yield with an annual $25K social security payment, this generates 400*.04 + 25 or $41.4K of annual income; for a husband-wife duo, you should add another $25K for another social security check for $66.4K of annual income. The average retired household spends ~$55K per year so even without touching principal, most households are secure for retirement. (
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This hypothetical absolutely is enough to retire on. 10K a year from 22 to 65 at a 5% return results in an end balance of $1.465 million. Assuming a 4% dividend yield/interest rate, the 401K generates $58,600 of annual income, then add $25,000 on social security and the retiree now has $83,600 each year for life without touching principal.
How about you try to retire on 1.4M then let us know in a years how that goes. In 20 years, how far do you think 86k per year is going to get you? Do you have any idea how high health care costs are for people aged over 60?

Economies of scale accrue to firms.
Economies of scale apply to supply chains, industrial sectors, and market sizes, not individual firms. Why are Chinese electric cars so much cheaper than Teslas? Even cars produced by smaller Chinese firms?
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
If you uncritically accept the ITIF’s report - you should accept all of its study conclusions.
Not necessarily. That's like saying if you agree with me on one thing you need to agree on everything. Stupid, right? But despite how stupid your rule is, you've still violated it saying that you agree with the one point saying that the US and China are likely at par on one thing, then saying that China is NOT 15 years ahead, which is against the conclusion of the article.
There - it is unambiguous - the U.S. and China are similar in technological levels,
Can you even read? Every point gives China the heavy advantage and one time, it says that analysts say that China and the US are "likely at par." It's unsupported and then even if it's true, the rest of it means that although both guys are big dreamers, China's the bigger doer.
the U.S. has more nuclear energy deployed, and China has a more permissive structure to marketize nuclear energy. So even there, your favored sources do not support an unambiguous “15 years ahead” conclusion - especially not for capital formation and technological development
“However, this does not necessarily mean that China’s largest nuclear power companies—notably the state-owned enterprises (SOEs) China General Nuclear Power Corporation (CGN) and the China National Nuclear Power (CNNP)—are exceptionally innovative technologically.” -
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No, you can't read at all. The US has more nuclear power deployed because of what it had done in the decades before. China's tech is superior. The US has no 4th gen reactors or plans to build one while China's is operations. You're getting really stupid on a really basic level. You can't even distinguish the difference between numeric superiority and technological superiority.
All of this is distracting from the original point that Congress is able to substantial changes (which you haven’t rebutted as much as you’ve downplayed).
No changes have been seen. They've talked about it. What's the result? Where's the tech that came out of it? Nothing, no changes, just talking about changes.
Not just semiconductors lol. How many of the world’s larger electronic gas manufacturers are from China? Software publishers? Aircraft manufacturers (even with Boeing’s recent kerfuffle)? Pharmaceutical corporates? Life insurers? Medical device manufacturers? Oilfield equipment companies? Package couriers? Commercial avionics manufacturers?
The pattern is all the same; American/Western companies totally dominant a decade or 2 ago, now, some of those fields, they have Chinese challengers and others, they have already been beaten like telecom, electric vehicles. Like I said, old lion's tools getting ground down by young lion's growth.
The point was you don’t need to know anything about the state of where China is to know US firms will maintain their market leading positions for decades.
The point is that you actually know nothing about the state of China but hope that you can close your eyes and imagine that the future will resemble the past. The hallmark of a waning empire.
This is indeed the point. By the time China scales effectively, it will be 203X at the earliest. Decades, indeed.
Your point is that it'll take 20 years or less from the time China challenges the US to when it overtakes in each field?

Generally, when people hear "decades," we think at least 40 years, probably 50-60. You meant decades as in 203X? That's... probably fine. I don't expect the US to go down that fast.
There were ~1.9M STEM bachelor degree recipients in China in 2022. There were ~18 million people born in China in 2000. ~11% of the cohort earned a STEM bachelor degree.
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There were ~420K STEM bachelor recipients in the U.S. in 2022. There ~4 million people born in the U.S. in 2000 and once again, ~11% of the cohort earned a ST
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This is jumbled garbage. This mixes all types of majors with no emphasis on STEM. Nobody has any idea which lines you decided to add.

STEM graduates per capita direct data:
STEM-Graphic-2-HD-1536x1159.png

Figure 3 shows that 41% of Chinese students choose STEM while ony 20% of American students choose STEM. Furthermore, while America has basically nowhere left to go as a developed nation (actually seeing declines in college attedance since 2011), China's rapidly increasing college attendance rate compounds with the double in proportion of students selecting STEM.
You can toggle with the numerators with international students and U.S. citizen/lpr Asians. It doesn’t change the analysis.
Which I'm showing above, not your made up shit.
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
No. It’s because immigrants are a positively selected cohort. Especially Asians, since they didn’t exist in the U.S. in 1965 and had to enter the U.S. on worker visas before there was any level of appreciable family reunification migration since the early 2000s.
We've done this so many times before. Chinese students beat American students everywhere. We beat you in America; we beat you at international competitons. There is no globally competitive math Olympiad team that is not predominantly ethnic Chinese. In America, Chinese kids whose parents are first gen immigrants working in restaurants beat American kids whose parents are top earners, causing white flight in schools with a high Asian population. Your excuse makes no sense at all.
No other country has been at continuous peace since the 1860s, except, well, of course, the United States.
Being at peace meaning not at war? Do you know how any wars America has fought? Do you know how many recessions America has seen since the 1860's? This is an ignorant stupid claim it's total nonsense.
Because the technology already exists?
In China
It is just being deployed slowly?
Very slowly AKA Western beaurocrat pace
Also, “we will do X” is newsworthy in its own right - see the substantial coverage of Five Year Plans in China
That is the basic direction of the country, like the state of the union address. I think that needs to be covered or nothing would be covered. However, a meeting to address appropriate reaction or investment in tech are rarely if ever publicized. We prefer to hold closed door meetings with the relevent personell and the next time you hear about it, the results are achieved. This is opposite to American style, which is to publicize the meeting for political points, and then totally fail to achieve anything. China has the world's only 4th gen reactor with 27 in construction vs America's 0. What reaslitically do you think they can do to reverse China's lead?
Again, A1 headlines and prime time tv reports are observable. They didn’t cover it.
I just listed all the main outlets, NY Times included.
Expecting national political outlets not to cover acts of Congress is patently ridiculous. To what extent they cover it is much more operative.

Do you not expect national media outlets to cover acts of Congress? If that’s the standard for having a big mouth, then having a big mouth is (once again) tautological. It’s also meaningless because if national political outlets don’t cover acts of Congress - what else do they cover? It’s one of the 3 branches of government lol.
You're the one saying they didn't cover enough to warrant big mouth shit; I'm saying they totally did.
You act as if Xinhua and the like don’t reasonably spend a lot of effort covering Five Year Plans. Policy developments are always newsworthy.
Addressed above.
The $400 (or however much) expense report you cite is simply wrong - a substantial number of individuals who state they can’t afford an unexpected expense *also* have substantially more in transaction accounts. -
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No, you are simply wrong. Transaction amounts are not emergencies; these are emergency unplanned expenses. You mistook this to mean that these people didn't spend $400 at all on anything?
And once again, if you want to measure the ability to sustain financial shocks, you can look at financial assets held outright on balance sheets - there, since tje median household has ~$40K in financial assets, that’s clearly contradictory to survey data.
No, I get it from the horses's mouth. Assets are not free; using many of them causes penalties; other assets need to be sold like your car and house to use them to get by, which obviously is not doable. Straight up having not enough money in the bank to cover $100/$400/$1K is what it says and what it means and it's financial frailty. It doesn't say that these individuals don't have that amount in their name if they sold everything they owned; that's some serious next level shit. Nobody is claiming that but you are arguing against it anyway.
Survey respondents tend to underestimate their financial positionso actual financial statements take precedence.
No, you tend to overestimate your own competence telling other people that they can afford what they tell you they can't.
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Answered above; available funds is not total asset worth and total asset worth is not what you can mobilize to truly absorb a shock. If you had to sell assets, for example, your car, to cover a $2K emergency, that's not absorbing the emergency; that's breaking down one wall to mend another.
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier

More evidence of the “paycheck to paycheck” vernacular having no meaning, whatsoever.

Apparently you live paycheck to paycheck after buying things and contributing to savings vehicles such as a 401(k) and home equity.
So basically you're broke until 60. That's what I'm talking about when I say your assets are not free to use. That's definitely terrible and definitely paycheck to paycheck.

Also explains why when I sell things on Craigslist/Facebook this year, I get 70 year old dudes coming like, "How much for the race bike? $3,600? I'll take it. Cash ok? Betty! Get my money clip." And then I have 30 year olds like, "You want $25 for the bike trainer? How about 20? No? OK ok, meet at $22? I've got $12 in my Venmo, I'll do $5 Zelle and $5 cash."
That is…tautological.
I make the max contribution to my 401K every year, own my house and my cars without payments and I have enough in the bank to cover any emergencies. If my kid goes to the hospital and I have to pay a 6 figure bill to save his life, AND I lose my job on the same day, I don't have to touch my 401K, sell any assets, nor would I have to make changes to the way I spend money. That is... NOT paycheck to paycheck. This is... financially solid.
 
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chgough34

Junior Member
Registered Member
Not necessarily. That's like saying if you agree with me on one thing you need to agree on everything. Stupid, right? But despite how stupid your rule is, you've still violated it saying that you agree with the one point saying that the US and China are likely at par on one thing, then saying that China is NOT 15 years ahead, which is against the conclusion of the article.
No. I actually stated that the report was thinly veiled lobbying and thus shouldn’t be given much credence, but since you seem to put an extraordinary amount of emphasis on one line of the report and cite it again and again and again, we might as well take the report as a whole (which is much more qualified than the headlines claimed)
No, you can't read at all. The US has more nuclear power deployed because of what it had done in the decades before.
Yes - since capital stock lasts for a long time - capital formation involves both stock and flow measurements; and so even decades later, the Us
China's tech is superior.
Citing once again - “Where China has thrived, however, regarding nuclear power innovation more pertains to systemic and organizational innovation. This especially refers to the country’s coherent national strategy toward nuclear power—at both federal and provincial levels—which entails a range of supportive policies from low-interest financing, feed-in tariffs, and other subsidies that make nuclear power generation cost competitive to streamlined permitting and regulatory approval (i.e., of safety and environmental impact assessments), to coordinating supply chains in an effective fashion. Indeed, as industry analyst Kenneth Luongo commented, “They don’t have any secret sauce other than state financing, state supported supply chain, and a state commitment to build the technology.”

The report you cite does not support your highly bombastic conclusions.
No changes have been seen. They've talked about it. What's the result? Where's the tech that came out of it? Nothing, no changes, just talking about changes.
Congress is a legislature, not an energy corporate or a regulator so Congress passing laws is all they can do; that is where their power comes from. This is clearly not “just talk” since there’s an actual new law that’s now in force.
The pattern is all the same; American/Western companies totally dominant a decade or 2 ago, now, some of those fields, they have Chinese challengers and others, they have already been beaten like telecom, electric vehicles.
If getting “beat” involves Cisco grossing $50bn a year, again, that proves the point lol. US firm competitive advantages are deep and entrenched and will persist no matter what happens in other countries
The point is that you actually know nothing about the state of China but hope that you can close your eyes and imagine that the future will resemble the past. The hallmark of a waning empire.
You don’t need to know anything about China as the comment below proves.
Generally, when people hear "decades," we think at least 40 years, probably 50-60. You meant decades as in 203X? That's... probably fine. I don't expect the US to go down that fast.
2-3 decades is a working lifetime and if that’s the lower bound on your estimate - that proves the point about US competitive advantages persisting, regardless of what happens in the rest of the world.
STEM graduates per capita direct data:
STEM-Graphic-2-HD-1536x1159.png

Figure 3 shows that 41% of Chinese students choose STEM while ony 20% of American students choose STEM.
The proportion of people that go to 4 year colleges is not the same in each country, the denominators simply are not the same and so cannot directly be compared; the U.S. has effectively open enrollment 4yr universities; China has a gaokao limit - enrollment compositions (especially at U.S. regional universities will reflect that accordingly) - the lines I added were the Engineering and Science ones in China; the CIS/Eng./Math/Phys/Life. The graph also proves my point - 820K stem graduates in the U.S.; 3.57 million graduates in China, so there are 4.35x more stem graduates in China which is entirely consistent with a population differential - 1.4/.330 is 4.24.

Furthermore, while America has basically nowhere left to go as a developed nation (actually seeing declines in college attedance since 2011)
The declines in college attendance have nearly entirely been concentrated in humanities enrollment - CS enrollments have increased substantially - see Table 6 -
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chgough34

Junior Member
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So basically you're broke until 60. That's what I'm talking about when I say your assets are not free to use.
People make trade offs between consumption today vs. consumption tomorrow. If people want to consume today and save less today; that’s a completely reasonable choice, but it is not evidence of financial distress. It’s evidence people are unhappy dealing with a budget constraint - something people have been unhappy about since the beginning of time.
That's definitely terrible and definitely paycheck to paycheck.
If living “paycheck to paycheck” involves a savings component, it’s now a tautology since savings + consumption = income.
I make the max contribution to my 401K every year, own my house and my cars without payments and I have enough in the bank to cover any emergencies. If my kid goes to the hospital and I have to pay a 6 figure bill to save his life, AND I lose my job on the same day, I don't have to touch my 401K, sell any assets, nor would I have to make changes to the way I spend money. That is... NOT paycheck to paycheck. This is... financially solid.
You are risk-averse and like to save money. Others aren’t and like to spend money today. Different people have different circumstances and different considerations which result in different outcomes. Least surprising thing ever.
 

chgough34

Junior Member
Registered Member
We've done this so many times before. Chinese students beat American students everywhere. We beat you in America; we beat you at international competitons. There is no globally competitive math Olympiad team that is not predominantly ethnic Chinese.
The focus on Olympiads is incredibly niche since those are thinly attended events that even in the college adcom world, come up infrequently so there very much may just be selection on the dependent variable here. This whole thing is also unbelievably silly, ethnic Chinese students are ~1% of US school enrollment and unless you lead with an absolutely preposterous conclusion that only the top 1% of US students are academically competitive (for example, the ~1% of US birth cohorts that receive a PhD are ~10% Asian); this weird obnoxious ethnonationalism is seriously misplaced.
In America, Chinese kids whose parents are first gen immigrants working in restaurants beat American kids whose parents are top earners
No: Olympiad students aren’t attending LAUSD, or NYC City Schools; they attend suburban schools in NJ, metro Dallas, etc. It’s a very positively selected cohort. Even the restaurant workers are not necessarily negatively selected - they like many immigrant groups, could be highly credentialed but those fail to transfer to the U.S. or lack English proficiency and/or cultural proficiency - immigrants that arrive in adulthood don’t see much labor market change even though they tend to be from higher income strata in their home countries (see, for example -
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Being at peace meaning not at war? Do you know how any wars America has fought? Do you know how many recessions America has seen since the 1860's? This is an ignorant stupid claim it's total nonsense.
Doesn’t matter for the economic development analysis. Those wars were out of sight, out of mind for those resident in the U.S. There simply has been no war on US soil a since the civil war ended in 1865; a longer streak than any other country
That is the basic direction of the country, like the state of the union address. I think that needs to be covered or nothing would be covered. However, a meeting to address appropriate reaction or investment in tech are rarely if ever publicized.
Happens all the time, policy developments are newsworthy. Simple as that. Congress and the NPC share similar roles and so just like anything the NPC does is newsworthy, same with Congress. acts of Congress will of course be covered - whether it gets wall to wall tv coverage and A1 coverage or whether it gets bunkered to a side-column on the internet is an editorial choice

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No, you are simply wrong. Transaction amounts are not emergencies; these are emergency unplanned expenses. You mistook this to mean that these people didn't spend $400 at all on anything?
If the median household has $8K in transaction accounts and has an average monthly expenditure of ~$6K (
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) they can afford an emergency $400 emergency, especially if they are continuing to work. Transaction accounts are immediately liquid but are by no means the only source of liquidity for households; if even the first line on their balance sheet is able to cover needed outcomes, the inquiry stops there.
No, I get it from the horses's mouth. Assets are not free
These are solely financial assets so selling them might increase tax burdens, result in actualized losses, or result in less accrued interest; but none of those 3 “penalties” matter for the solvency analysis
No, you tend to overestimate your own competence telling other people that they can afford what they tell you they can't.
Nah. This is done all the time with credit risk analysis and bank/insurer solvency evaluation - if household net worth is positive and their quick ratio is very high, they simply are solvent, regardless of the perpetual pessimism of households talking about their finances.
Answered above; available funds is not total asset worth and total asset worth is not what you can mobilize to truly absorb a shock
Those were solely financial assets
. If you had to sell assets, for example, your car, to cover a $2K emergency
You by definition sell assets to cover a $2K, since even using bank accounts means you sell your money you’ve loaned to a bank to cover a transaction. Paying for anything in any form involves selling assets.
 
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