American Economics Thread

chgough34

Junior Member
Registered Member
Why do you assume ITIF's findings are fake in the first place, you shouldn't just dismiss research that you don't like.
I don’t assume. I pointed how, even assuming they are true, they don’t lead to the conclusions stated. Of course, any think-tank research is itself ideologically motivated, any think-tank research that gets published publically itself is going to be published, not because of the veracity of study results, but to shape elite opinion in the Washington metropolitan area (and thus need to be viewed from that angle)
Also, what do you mean by "ability to deploy"?
If you read the report - it mentions being able to put it into being able to sell electricity.
The ability to deploy green energy faster and cheaper is literally the goal.
Yes - but the political barriers to building infrastructure are not necessarily technological barriers or the inability to field technologies - and those political barriers are literally just what the Congress has obliterated.
 

CMP

Senior Member
Registered Member
How many people in America actually have a 401k? Do you even live in the United States? Pointing to a 401k as if though it was somehow representative of actual average Americans shows just how you don't understand context. You cherry-pick facts to support a narrative and agenda without realizing that the cherry-pick facts make your argument look silly because you don't understand the context of the country that you're 'Rah-Rahing'.

Do us all a favor and sod off to Reddit.
According to data from the U.S. Census Bureau, only 32% of Americans are saving for retirement in a 401(k). This is an old figure from 2017 though. 2021 figures show it is 18%.
 

chgough34

Junior Member
Registered Member
According to data from the U.S. Census Bureau, only 32% of Americans are saving for retirement in a 401(k). This is an old figure from 2017 though. 2021 figures show it is 18%.
“In 2020, working-age baby boomers ages 56 to 64 were the most likely to own at least one type of retirement account (58.1%).

Generation or Gen X members ages 40 to 55 were the next most likely to own retirement accounts (56.1%).

About half (49.5%) of Millennials ages 24 to 39 owned at least one type of retirement account but only 7.7% of Generation or Gen Z members ages 15 to 23 owned a retirement account.”

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- those numbers will be even higher now because of the SECURE 2.0 Act -
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restricting the set to “401(k)” is silly since 401(k)s are only offered to employees of large for-profit companies and thus completely ignores the broader range of ERISA retirement accounts that are for other type of firm structures: for example, nonprofit employees (403(b)), small businesses (SEP plans), sole proprietorships (Solo IRAs), among others.
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
Technological catch-up is easier than pushing the technological frontier; the least surprising thing ever.
China did catch-up, then it paced 15 years forward. So it did the easy thing and it did the hard thing too. Now China's gonna make America unable to do the easy thing.
It’s mildly revealing, imo, that you condition US competency on being able to maintain a perpetual lead over a country with 4x US population in everything (expecting the U.S. to be hyper-competent in everything, forever, and substantially better than every foreign policymaker is one helluva null hypothesis - where did that null come from, if I may ask?) Congress is useless because a country with no technology and no physical capital is able to converge to 1/6th the U.S. GDPPC level after 4 decades of intensive catch-up? Sure thing lol.
Bingo. I like it. I said before, America should just give up trying to keep up with China. Why would 330M liberal arts majors and frat boys be able to keep up with 1.4B STEM majors? I compared US politicians arguing over how to compete with China with 50 baboons shrieking over how to fit 10 gallons of water in a 2 gallon bucket. I also said that once China takes over the US, the US politician cope to the people would be that it was already a miracle that America kept up for as long as it did. Yup, we're there with you.
This is mainly besides the point - the point was Congress is able to pass large technocratic reforms (as they just did) and that is obviously contradictory to a claim that Washington/DC/Congress is hopelessly deadlocked when they clearly are not.
I like to wait for the results. Making a plan doesn't count for any back-patting as far as I'm concerned.
No, not really.
Not really? Reuters isn't media? It's not bigger than you? LOL
It is once again, definitional. Reuters is a newswire since regional broadcasters and newspapers cannot afford national correspondents so they buy coverage of federal politics form newswires (the regionals are literally copying coverage from Reuters).
It is once again, reported in a major outlet.
All pages have headlines lmao.
What page is this? LMFAO
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It was literally an act of Congress. Expecting zero coverage is ridiculous for an act of Congress with substantial macroeconomic effects.
You're the one who brought it up saying it wasn't well-covered. I don't care; I just see that there are no results and you're already bragging like an American bigmouth.
But there isn’t going to be broad public opinion on it either way unless it is on Page A1 of a newspaper of record or it garners substantial TV coverage through broadcasts/mentions during prime time (neither happened wrt the nuclear energy bill). Hence, broadly under the radar.
That's because most Americans are too stupid to read and understand anything tech related.
Once again - asking people whether they are living paycheck to paycheck is not useful when no one has a consistent meaning of what it actually means. And even if taken literally that individuals spend all of their household labor income and save none of it - that itself doesn’t necessarily indicate financial distress because capital income is a thing that provides substantial revenue to many households and because often, substantial discretionary spending is due to voluntary choices and household confidence in the future - which if those polls are to be taken literally - is what it points to once disaggregated by income
Once again - the exact definition is unimportant because everyone except you understands that paycheck to paycheck means that there's gonna be trouble if you miss your next payday. That's financial frailty. No amount of US politician squirming with escape that fact.
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Yeah I know, right? Americans are so crazy bad with money, I agree.
 
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chgough34

Junior Member
Registered Member
China did catch-up, then it paced 15 years forward.
Alas: if you read the report, that’s not what they said. China produces less nuclear energy than the U.S., and (per the ITIF report - ofc take with a grain of salt), is not ahead of the U.S. in nuclear reactor technology. The “ahead” focus was entirely on the regulatory environment for deploying technology. So for neither capital formation or technological development has China paved 15 years forward (albeit, even if China did, that would not be evidence of Congress’ incompetence).
So it did the easy thing and it did the hard thing too. Now China's gonna make America unable to do the easy thing.
Nah. US competitive advantages will persist for decades - regardless of what happens in China because U.S. firm scale effects, economies of scale, network effects, and accumulated capital stock and technological development provide a very large wall for anyone challenging US incumbents. For example, the ZTE sanctions went on nearly a decade ago but U.S. semiconductor market shares have barely shifted since then despite creating obvious global disincentives to buy American - simply because US semiconductor firms are very well entrenched. This replicated across every market segment.
Bingo. I like it. I said before, America should just give up trying to keep up with China. Why would 330M liberal arts majors and frat boys be able to keep up with 1.4B STEM majors?
The stem graduate proportion is actually the same in the U.S. and China; of course, due to the U.S. having functional higher education for centuries, the U.S. population is much better credentialed than China’s population. The U.S. is generally competently governed with substantial competiveness in most everything lol.
I compared US politicians arguing over how to compete with China with 50 baboons shrieking over how to fit 10 gallons of water in a 2 gallon bucket. I also said that once China takes over the US, the US politician cope to the people would be that it was already a miracle that America kept up for as long as it did. Yup, we're there with you.
It’s not a miracle. It’s just the longest unbroken chain of peaceful economic development of any country today, overseen by competent governance for 2+ centuries that have laid a business environment conducive to capital formation and technological development. The “competition with China” is simply an irrelevant sideshow for the bored house guys of Fairfax County to get resume filler since it is ultimately, irrelevant for the lives of anyone outside of the Washington-Arlington-Alexandria Metropolitan Statistical Area. Even if the U.S. “loses”, no one will know it outside of a handful of people in Fairfax county. The stakes are quite low for the U.S.
I like to wait for the results. Making a plan doesn't count for any back-patting as far as I'm concerned.
No. Making a plan is an achievement since it focuses a bureaucracy and sets the legal/regulatory environment for which development takes place. It’s the same reason why 5-year plans take a substantial amount of effort in China. Same here.
Not really? Reuters isn't media? It's not bigger than you? LOL

It is once again, reported in a major outlet.
I originally stated that it was going to be carried by newswires, which doesn’t cut against the point that the ADVANCE Act didn’t receive so much media coverage that there is broad public awareness of its existence. An act of Congress will always get media coverage from major outlets - the question is always how much coverage - is it cabined to a side-item (such as the NDAA) or does it take up headline coverage (as say, with the TCJA or CARES)
What page is this? LMFAO
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A newswire (it also doesn’t have pages since those decisions are for editors elsewhere to place).
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A specialist publication
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Another specialist publication
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Wow yet another specialist publication
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Another specialist publication
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Yet another specialist publication
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And a press release from the author of the bill. Your links were literally what I said - coverage was primarily concentrated in industry publications and newswires.
You're the one who brought it up saying it wasn't well-covered. I don't care
It was literally my original narrow point - that the Congress passes a substantial amount of bipartisan legislation with large microeconomic and macroeconomic effects, so long as tue
That's because most Americans are too stupid to read and understand anything tech related.
Regardless of the reason, it doesn’t change the fact that Congress made substantial changes (and for which you’ve tried to downplay but not deny) that Congress isn’t unable to pass large technocratic reforms. “Tech related” news comes up pretty regularly - and it often gets headline coverage: for example, the abortion pill, climate change, superfund sites, among others.
Once again - the exact definition is unimportant because everyone except you understands that paycheck to paycheck means that there's gonna be trouble if you miss your next payday.
The exact definitions are important because savings are often counted as expense which makes living “paycheck to paycheck” a tautology! If your definition is a tautology, then it is entirely illogical. This reading of the “paycheck to paycheck” survey data is the most natural reading of it to comport with the Survey of Consumer Finances showing household net worth is positive (impossible without savings in either illiquid or liquid form) and 72% of households reporting doing okay or living comfortably when presented with a menu of 4 options - “living comfortably”, “doing okay”, “just getting by”, or “finding it difficult to get by” - see pg. 5. (
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Yeah I know, right? Americans are so crazy bad with money, I agree.
No. What it shows is that the surveys are not measuring savings activity or financial fragility - households at 100K are 60th percentile, so it should follow if they are actually living paycheck to paycheck, households in the 60th percentile should have no retirement savings. Alas, 76% of households at the 60th percentile have retirement savings (
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). So what “paycheck to paycheck” means is simply not measuring anything meaningful when it doesn’t comport with higher quality data - audited household balance sheets.
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
Alas: if you read the report, that’s not what they said. China produces less nuclear energy than the U.S., and (per the ITIF report - ofc take with a grain of salt), is not ahead of the U.S. in nuclear reactor technology.
The “ahead” focus was entirely on the regulatory environment for deploying technology. So for neither capital formation or technological development has China paved 15 years forward (albeit, even if China did, that would not be evidence of Congress’ incompetence).
No, that is your personal logical fallacy. Producing less poer with far far less reactors means superior reactor technology. America has a huge fleet of old reactors while China has the world's first and only 4th gen reactor. That's called superior technology. China also has 27 under construction while the US has 0.
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Nah. US competitive advantages will persist for decades - regardless of what happens in China because U.S. firm scale effects, economies of scale, network effects, and accumulated capital stock and technological development provide a very large wall for anyone challenging US incumbents. For example, the ZTE sanctions went on nearly a decade ago but U.S. semiconductor market shares have barely shifted since then despite creating obvious global disincentives to buy American - simply because US semiconductor firms are very well entrenched. This replicated across every market segment.
Yeah, the US fights like an old lion grinding down its last miserable tools while China fights like a young lion growing stronger every day. Semiconductors are the hardest tech in the world; 8 years since the ZTE sanctions and China basically closed what experts say was over 20 years in difference and the increase in momentum is the most encouraging aspect of China's tech rise. It takes more time to go from tech to market. So while the US can still hang on, China's the only one gaining ground. American competitive advantages are still there due to the old order but hoping they can resist change for decades is more than wishful thinking.
The stem graduate proportion is actually the same in the U.S. and China; of course, due to the U.S. having functional higher education for centuries, the U.S. population is much better credentialed than China’s population. The U.S. is generally competently governed with substantial competiveness in most everything lol.
Competitiveness to the world, not to China. Actually, China has a higher per capita STEM grad output than the US and China's STEM output is basically entirely Chinese while the US trains many foreigners and minorities who may leave. Furthermore, Chinese are known to outperform all other groups both in Western countries and when competing from China against Western countries. China has higher quantity and better quality.
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It’s not a miracle. It’s just the longest unbroken chain of peaceful economic development of any country today,
That's so histoically ignorant it's hallmark American. So many empires have hundreds of years of prosperity compared to America's decades.
overseen by competent governance for 2+ centuries that have laid a business environment conducive to capital formation and technological development. The “competition with China” is simply an irrelevant sideshow for the bored house guys of Fairfax County to get resume filler since it is ultimately, irrelevant for the lives of anyone outside of the Washington-Arlington-Alexandria Metropolitan Statistical Area. Even if the U.S. “loses”, no one will know it outside of a handful of people in Fairfax county. The stakes are quite low for the U.S.
Yessss that's the kinda cope we all expected for when the US loses. "So what if we lose to China? Doesn't matter! We had a great run!" We all rag on you for being stupid here but you're ahead of your time as a US politician.
No. Making a plan is an achievement since it focuses a bureaucracy and sets the legal/regulatory environment for which development takes place. It’s the same reason why 5-year plans take a substantial amount of effort in China. Same here.
LOLOL OK. China's standard for success is the development of the technology. American standard for success is agreeing to develop the technology. We have different standards; go ahead and pat yourself on the back for waking up to get the work, then for entering the building while you're at it.
I originally stated that it was going to be carried by newswires, which doesn’t cut against the point that the ADVANCE Act didn’t receive so much media coverage that there is broad public awareness of its existence. An act of Congress will always get media coverage from major outlets - the question is always how much coverage - is it cabined to a side-item (such as the NDAA) or does it take up headline coverage (as say, with the TCJA or CARES)
So how much coverage? You wanna answer that? You got numbers?
A newswire (it also doesn’t have pages since those decisions are for editors elsewhere to place).
Oh it doesn't have pages... so... what was that page 17 stuff you were talking about? Pulled out of your ass?
Yet another specialist publication
And a press release from the author of the bill. Your links were literally what I said - coverage was primarily concentrated in industry publications and newswires.
1. You missed Reuters
2. I got you. You didn't think I'd leave you high and dry asking to be proven wrong, did you?
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It was literally my original narrow point - that the Congress passes a substantial amount of bipartisan legislation with large microeconomic and macroeconomic effects, so long as tue
The original point was that I said America's a big mouth and you tried to say it's not that big cus you don't think it got enough coverage to qualify LOL
Regardless of the reason, it doesn’t change the fact that Congress made substantial changes (and for which you’ve tried to downplay but not deny) that Congress isn’t unable to pass large technocratic reforms. “Tech related” news comes up pretty regularly - and it often gets headline coverage: for example, the abortion pill, climate change, superfund sites, among others.
So... they talked about it and made a plan. And you jumped on it with enthusiasm as if the tech came out LOL. To Chinese people used to real progress, this isn't even worth discussing until the reactors are build and the new tech is demonstrated.
The exact definitions... reduced for space... sheets.
No, paycheck to paycheck is the highest and most meaningful data. Not only does is show inability to absorb shock (AKA frailty), it further shows inability to budget and plan. Actually, it goes hand-in-hand with this data for the most meaningful picture of the finanacial situation which is reliant on each paycheck, unable to pay emergency expenses even with all paycheck coming in:
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ZeEa5KPul

Colonel
Registered Member
Even if the U.S. “loses”, no one will know it outside of a handful of people in Fairfax county. The stakes are quite low for the U.S.
lmao cope.

To be fair to you, sleepy, you are right in a sense. Americans will be too busy watching their quality of life get flushed down the toilet and their society crumble to notice this epochal change. I'd say they'd also be too busy watching inflation wipe out their savings, but they have no savings to wipe out. You know how it is.
 
How many people in America actually have a 401k? Do you even live in the United States? Pointing to a 401k as if though it was somehow representative of actual average Americans shows just how you don't understand context. You cherry-pick facts to support a narrative and agenda without realizing that the cherry-pick facts make your argument look silly because you don't understand the context of the country that you're 'Rah-Rahing'.

Do us all a favor and sod off to Reddit.
I would think most Americans do have retirement accounts, the the question is how much are people putting in to their retirement accounts. There may be many people only earning 100k and putting 6% in with additional 4% company match, only 10k per year. That is not going to be enough to retire on. How many Americans are able to max out their 401ks? A homeowner maxing out their 401k may be able to get by with minimum savings outside of their 401k (provided once they have 6-24 months emergency savings in cash), but how many Americans actually fit that demographic?
 
Nah. US competitive advantages will persist for decades - regardless of what happens in China because U.S. firm scale effects, economies of scale, network effects, and accumulated capital stock and technological development provide a very large wall for anyone challenging US incumbents. For example, the ZTE sanctions went on nearly a decade ago but U.S. semiconductor market shares have barely shifted since then despite creating obvious global disincentives to buy American - simply because US semiconductor firms are very well entrenched. This replicated across every market segment.

Economies of scale and scale effects are exactly why no country can compete with China. Tell me you use words you don't understand without telling me you use words you don't understand.
 

chgough34

Junior Member
Registered Member
No, that is your personal logical fallacy. Producing less poer with far far less reactors means superior reactor technology. America has a huge fleet of old reactors while China has the world's first and only 4th gen reactor. That's called superior technology. China also has 27 under construction while the US has 0.
If you uncritically accept the ITIF’s report - you should accept all of its study conclusions. There - it is unambiguous - the U.S. and China are similar in technological levels, the U.S. has more nuclear energy deployed, and China has a more permissive structure to marketize nuclear energy. So even there, your favored sources do not support an unambiguous “15 years ahead” conclusion - especially not for capital formation and technological development.

“However, this does not necessarily mean that China’s largest nuclear power companies—notably the state-owned enterprises (SOEs) China General Nuclear Power Corporation (CGN) and the China National Nuclear Power (CNNP)—are exceptionally innovative technologically.” -
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.

All of this is distracting from the original point that Congress is able to substantial changes (which you haven’t rebutted as much as you’ve downplayed).
Yeah, the US fights like an old lion grinding down its last miserable tools while China fights like a young lion growing stronger every day. Semiconductors are the hardest tech in the world;
Not just semiconductors lol. How many of the world’s larger electronic gas manufacturers are from China? Software publishers? Aircraft manufacturers (even with Boeing’s recent kerfuffle)? Pharmaceutical corporates? Life insurers? Medical device manufacturers? Oilfield equipment companies? Package couriers? Commercial avionics manufacturers?

The point was you don’t need to know anything about the state of where China is to know US firms will maintain their market leading positions for decades.
8 years since the ZTE sanctions and China basically closed what experts say was over 20 years in difference and the increase in momentum is the most encouraging aspect of China's tech rise. It takes more time to go from tech to market.
This is indeed the point. By the time China scales effectively, it will be 203X at the earliest. Decades, indeed.
Competitiveness to the world, not to China. Actually, China has a higher per capita STEM grad output
There were ~1.9M STEM bachelor degree recipients in China in 2022. There were ~18 million people born in China in 2000. ~11% of the cohort earned a STEM bachelor degree.
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There were ~420K STEM bachelor recipients in the U.S. in 2022. There ~4 million people born in the U.S. in 2000 and once again, ~11% of the cohort earned a ST
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than the US and China's STEM output is basically entirely Chinese while the US trains many foreigners and minorities who may leave.
You can toggle with the numerators with international students and U.S. citizen/lpr Asians. It doesn’t change the analysis.
Furthermore, Chinese are known to outperform all other groups both in Western countries and when competing from China against Western countries. China has higher quantity and better quality.
No. It’s because immigrants are a positively selected cohort. Especially Asians, since they didn’t exist in the U.S. in 1965 and had to enter the U.S. on worker visas before there was any level of appreciable family reunification migration since the early 2000s.
That's so histoically ignorant it's hallmark American. So many empires have hundreds of years of prosperity compared to America's decades.
No other country has been at continuous peace since the 1860s, except, well, of course, the United States.
LOLOL OK. China's standard for success is the development of the technology. American standard for success is agreeing to develop the technology.
Because the technology already exists? It is just being deployed slowly? Also, “we will do X” is newsworthy in its own right - see the substantial coverage of Five Year Plans in China
So how much coverage? You wanna answer that? You got numbers?
Again, A1 headlines and prime time tv reports are observable. They didn’t cover it. Expecting national political outlets not to cover acts of Congress is patently ridiculous. To what extent they cover it is much more operative.
The original point was that I said America's a big mouth and you tried to say it's not that big cus you don't think it got enough coverage to qualify LOL
Do you not expect national media outlets to cover acts of Congress? If that’s the standard for having a big mouth, then having a big mouth is (once again) tautological. It’s also meaningless because if national political outlets don’t cover acts of Congress - what else do they cover? It’s one of the 3 branches of government lol.
So... they talked about it and made a plan. And you jumped on it with enthusiasm as if the tech came out LOL. To Chinese people used to real progress, this isn't even worth discussing until the reactors are build and the new tech is demonstrated.
You act as if Xinhua and the like don’t reasonably spend a lot of effort covering Five Year Plans. Policy developments are always newsworthy.
No, paycheck to paycheck is the highest and most meaningful data. Not only does is show inability to absorb shock (AKA frailty), it further shows inability to budget and plan. Actually, it goes hand-in-hand with this data for the most meaningful picture of the finanacial situation which is reliant on each paycheck, unable to pay emergency expenses even with all paycheck coming in:
The $400 (or however much) expense report you cite is simply wrong - a substantial number of individuals who state they can’t afford an unexpected expense *also* have substantially more in transaction accounts. -
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.

And once again, if you want to measure the ability to sustain financial shocks, you can look at financial assets held outright on balance sheets - there, since tje median household has ~$40K in financial assets, that’s clearly contradictory to survey data.

Survey respondents tend to underestimate their financial positionso actual financial statements take precedence.

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