American Economics Thread

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
No. It’s just what is being reported out is random. Data is meaningful (by itself); would be more meaningful with a larger numbers of time-series.
In other worse, the current numbers and time series kicks your ass so you need to escape into nonexistant "larger numbers."
And I’m not them and so I don’t really care.
Everytime I hear you say this, I get you for a second. But it's so weird that the goal most Americans set for the country is to be number 1 and the goal you set is to just be better than yesterday... or 50 years ago in an absolute sense, down to the details of when you can buy seasonal fruit.
I must have missed your reply,
That's strange, because there were several in the series; missing just one wouldn't collapse it. As a general rule, I always reply unless the contention is dissolved, so look for it.
but the same point remains (there are substantial selection effects unrelated to ability that determine graduate education attainment); there are a substantial numerous number of fields where there are a smaller share of foreigners (such as biology) where there is still an overwhelmingly large U.S. market share (ex., pharmaceuticals and medical devices); and as noted above - assuming a 1-to-1 relationship between ability and graduate educational attainment - the top ~1-2% of any U.S. bachelor degree cohort goes and obtains a PhD; if every foreigner was replaced with a U.S. citizen, that would push the number to the top ~3-4%. In order for that to be an ability-based classification (instead the of an economic one), you would need to assume there is a massive difference between individuals in the 97th percentile and those in the 98th percentile. That massive difference is observable in no other context, whatsoever.
Ifs and buts. The same point remains, the higher up on the speartip in America's STEM force, the more foreign it is. It is around 50% at the top and that doesn't even include US-born minorities with decreasing allegiance to the US due to the political conditions. This is far more useful than the data you presented including the US "STEM workforce without a bachelor's degree" because there is no such thing unless you count lab janitors as STEM workers.
A performance discontinuity. If there is that big of a discontinuity between individuals; then any association of individuals (corporations and municipalities, for example) should exhibit the same discontinuities. Alas, they do not exist.
What the hell does this mean? This is talking about there being a large foreign representation in the US STEM speartip. What you said makes no sense in the face of this fact.
They aren’t.
Ohhh ok ok it was in the post you "missed," right? It was in the data that you presented showing that while foreigners represent a relatively small percentage of the US total STEM workforce, which includes those without a bachelor's degree, that representation went up to nearly 50% at the PhD level. Normally, you would be expected to know that your own source said this even if you missed my reply but that requires that you be able to read charts, which you can't.
We were (originally) talking about the high school graduating class of 1990 who would’ve completed their doctorates in the late 1990s (and their performance).
Orignal meaning you brought it up; there is nothing special about them that I care to discuss.
Ignoring the ethnonationalist nonsense near the end;
You mean ignoring the painful truth. What can I say, it's not PC but it's the same as looking at the finalists in the 100m dash at every Olympics and World Championships and concluded what type of people are best at running.
US innovation (even if we assume it was all driven by doctoral degree holders) during the 2000s and 2010s would be from people who earned their PhDs in the 1980s and 1990s (which would be a super-super-super majority U.S.-born cohort) and thus by implication, validate that the high school graduating classes of those decades received sufficient human capital development.
American high school classes of those decades were at the top of the world. China had not even entered the world stage academically at those times. But the innovative enviornment is competitve and grows increasingly complex with the development of advanced technology. A cohort sufficient to build the best gas-powered car 4 decades ago has no competitive capability at all compared to a cohort today that can build the best self-driving EVs. In other words, America's STEM competitiveness is being made obsolete by a massive cohort of Chinese STEM PhDs that didn't exist 40 years ago and whether America has improved over itself in absolute terms over those years just doesn't matter amidst this backdrop.
 

antiterror13

Brigadier
It's actually less than that because you didn't including compounding interest. Over 30 years of interest is a huge modifier on wealth accumulation.

This just shows the median American isn't saving any money at all.

I wasn't even joking when I said $4M by 55 is needed. Since I live in Canada, the estimate is $1.75 M per person by 60 to have a comfortable retirement. So if you want to retire by 55, need just a bit more than that.

Between myself and my wife we are looking at $6M by 50 to retire comfortably. This doesn't include any future rents we would be collecting on our rentals or any inheritance we might get. So when we do get those just make life easier.

Our saving goals are actually very easy to reach because we are getting great returns on our investments.

Your goal make me very nervous ;) $6M by 50? gooosh, how would you do that ?

In NZ with choice lifestyle, for 2 people in Metro would need NZ$1.4K per week. and I believe I can do that comfortably (without paying rent). In NZ for a couple would get NZ super after 65 (for everybody even for super rich) roughly NZ$800 per week after tax for both
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1718174288105.png

So, if you have free mortgage home in NZ, even if you have NZ$600K between yourself and wife would be enough to retire (at 65) and the great thing in NZ you still can work when you are 65 and you get the salary and NZ super, no deduction. Of course my target is much higher than NZ$600K saving .... but nowhere near yours $6M (is it CAD$ or US$)
 
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Staedler

Junior Member
Registered Member
I am currently living in the US. I am making 40k and I am not even struggling. As Asian, we tend to have a big household and everyone do their share of paying rent.

The people who are struggling are lack of financial knowledge. They buy too expensive house and car. There are many affordable real estate in Texas. It is about 1500 bucks for rent. If you cannot afford 1500 bucks, you can look for a roommate which cost 700-800 bucks.

With your house payoff, you are able to retire with 500k. You can also rent a room to someone

I have friends who are chefs at Chinese restaurants. The owner covers the cost of meals and shared apartment because they are from another state. All they do is save money, they spent on nothing.
The question isn't whether it's livable if you save money. Most places are. The question is whether it's MORE livable. The answer is unless you're living in an undeveloped or post-Soviet / harvested (East & West Europe) country, it's not.

The previous posters have a belief that living in the US is better than all other places on Earth for the average person. It's simply not true and hasn't been true for a while.


I mean even the median salary for (including migrant workers!) in Guangzhou for private entities (typically lower salaries than foreign & SOE) now requires saving 70% of biweekly pay post-taxes to get $400k (non-compounding) at 55. That's with the current bad exchange rate. In 2017 (6 years before the current latest figures), it required 167% of biweekly pay (current tax & exchange rates).

Not to forget that the remaining 30% is worth at least 6x more in Guangzhou due to purchasing power disparities.
NY-HK is a (current) 3x PP difference in favor of HK. HK-Shenzhen is 2x PP. Guangzhou is even further down in terms of prices.
I've also lived in other cities in the US and while NY was more expensive, it wasn't 2x more expensive.

Sure, if you're say 75th percentile in the US, you're probably still better off, but that's, by definition, not the experience of the majority of people.
 
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chgough34

Junior Member
Registered Member
Everytime I hear you say this, I get you for a second. But it's so weird that the goal most Americans set for the country is to be number 1 and the goal you set is to just be better than yesterday... or 50 years ago in an absolute sense, down to the details of when you can buy seasonal fruit.
There are in effect a handful of comparisons - those vis-a-vis China, those vis-a-vis a hypothetical ideal (that turn into chest beating about China), and then the comparative time-series that all get merged into one. The fruit example was for a generalized principle that fully applies in China.
Ifs and buts. The same point remains, the higher up on the speartip in America's STEM force, the more foreign it is. It is around 50% at the top and that doesn't even include US-born minorities with decreasing allegiance to the US due to the political conditions.
Nah. There are multitudes of reasons why the PhD as ability proxy doesn’t work (and if you were to use other proxies - such as income, it breaks down even further), those minorities have allegiance to their bank accounts (regardless of political conditions) and they also lack citizenship in other countries so it’s a moot point regardless. And this of course is detracting from the original point - the U.S. born cohort of PhDs is larger than ever which necessarily implicates US human capital development.
This is far more useful than the data you presented including the US "STEM workforce without a bachelor's degree" because there is no such thing unless you count lab janitors as STEM workers.
It was always STEM workforce with at least a bachelors degree.
What the hell does this mean? This is talking about there being a large foreign representation in the US STEM speartip. What you said makes no sense in the face of this fact.
The original contention was whether the foreign-born share was due to US inability or other factors. I’m pointing out that assuming it’s from inability leads to absolutely absurd conclusions.
American high school classes of those decades were at the top of the world. China had not even entered the world stage academically at those times. But the innovative enviornment is competitve and grows increasingly complex with the development of advanced technology. A cohort sufficient to build the best gas-powered car 4 decades ago has no competitive capability at all compared to a cohort today that can build the best self-driving EVs. In other words, America's STEM competitiveness is being made obsolete by a massive cohort of Chinese STEM PhDs that didn't exist 40 years ago and whether America has improved over itself in absolute terms over those years just doesn't matter amidst this backdrop.
If we go back dozens of messages (?), it was “omg I can’t imagine how all the people who drink and smoke recreationally in high school could perform at all, whatsoever” in reference to the high school class of 1980. The intervening decades have shown that it wasn’t a particularly large impediment and the human capital developed well, anyways. The current cohort in China is simply irrelevant. This extends from the conclusion you agreed with a while back - but the current youth cohorts in both the U.S. & China are the highest performing cohorts that have ever graduated at all percentiles cohorts in China are going to be better performing than comparable US cohorts
 

Sinnavuuty

Senior Member
Registered Member
Okay, I want to say something to the regulars here.

It is the money printing.

Jerome should be pumping up the US economy with all his hard work, yet it is not going gangbusters at all.

Growth is still kind of flat.

The United States from 1960-2000 was able to grow its economy over 3% easily, WITHOUT THE MONEY PRINTING!

Now they print the money, and hail 2% growth if they can actually make that.

It is a different world.

:D
In fact, between the 1990s and 2000s, the US grew at such rates driven by money printing that it ended up creating two bubbles in that period, the Dot-com.com and the subprime bubble. The American economy since the 1980s has been experiencing bubble cycles, part of this growth was actually aimed at new production and investment cycles, but also at the stimulation of such bubbles.
 

chgough34

Junior Member
Registered Member
How American to look only at the exposed tip of the iceberg. How many students and professors are left-leaning and supportive of Palestine?
Professors and students write very left-wing pro-Palestine things all the time, everywhere. They were being punished for actions, not speech, so there wasn’t/isn’t any chilling effect on their teaching or research. There have always been limits (imposed socially) on the extent campus activism runs but teaching and research (which are core to the university function), simply are not implicated. Further, most university research (even in the social sciences) is quite apolitical and even the political research, very little of it delves into MENA. Any hypothetical chilling effect would be incredibly small (and tying originally, would not touch macroeconometric models and would not be anywhere close to a Cultural Revolution)
Yeah, because they're so down-to-earth and simple that they require almost no education-specialized input. Which is as I said, US economists are either right because it's common sense or wrong when they try to step it up to a higher level.
Yes, there’s a reason why quantitative methods have won over in economics and it’s because they’ve been substantially more accurate. Solow-Swan for growth forecasting takes a fair bit to understand it’s assumptions and it’s calculations but it’s besides the point - model accuracy matters, not model complexity; and macroeconomic models on China have been accurate for decades.
That sucks for the US. That's like the torso trying to move opposite from the legs.
Bureaucratic infighting and competing interests - what are those? Happens everywhere
Orrrrr, (and, actually LOL) your excuse is stupid and ignores "Occam's Razor" that making tests easier is usually a response to a complaint that they are too hard for the people taking them.
That’s both assuming the SATs have gotten easier and that College Board’s customers are test takers (they aren’t, it’s a captive audience) instead of state/local governments and universities.
They used to be famed for Nobel Laureates; now they're famed for campus gang activity.
SUNY has had a handful of Nobel Laureates in the 2010s but it’s broadly distracting from the point - outside of UBuffalo and Stony Brook - the non flagship universities (all regional universities) are in effect - open admissions universities created by business interests - their stats and their operational issues will be reflective of that
1 .You're referring to the wrong thing. The problem I referred to is the mass failures in Math in the schools of Balitmore and Chicago.
Those cohorts aren’t applying to college in any case.
2. The parade takes time to come; right now the implementation isn't even at mass with many expected to happen in 2025.
The high school graduating cohort in 2020 graduated last month. Any hypothetical parade of horrors from going test optional has had more than enough time to play out.
No, they are not similar at all. In America's case, it's developed cities degenerating into dirty dysfunctional shit holes.
They aren’t “degenerating”. They’ve been adversely selected areas since the 1970s since that’s when redlining, white flight, and exclusionary zoning came into force.
When did they last circle to the mass failures in education that they are talking about today?
Pretty regularly? The entire premise of A Nation At Risk, published in 1983 was that there were mass education failures everywhere. That report has been referenced and cited and continually referenced since…forever afterwards - - in basically all the school funding litigation, No Child Left Behind, Every Student Succeeds Act, among others. “The schools are mass failures” has been an accepted axiom since…forever since you can always find at least one district to find fault with.
It wasn't that ambiguous until America came up with these crazy bad results that make you think it could not have possibly been worse. If there was hard data that it was even worse before, then fine but without it, it's just hard to see how this could be an improvement over anything.
It was worse because there was substantially higher abseentism and dropping out in the 1950s and 1960s.
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
Professors and students write very left-wing pro-Palestine things all the time, everywhere. They were being punished for actions, not speech, so there wasn’t/isn’t any chilling effect on their teaching or research. There have always been limits (imposed socially) on the extent campus activism runs but teaching and research (which are core to the university function), simply are not implicated. Further, most university research (even in the social sciences) is quite apolitical and even the political research, very little of it delves into MENA. Any hypothetical chilling effect would be incredibly small (and tying originally, would not touch macroeconometric models and would not be anywhere close to a Cultural Revolution)
Their actions are peaceful protests; essentially, their actions are speech and nobody had any legitimate reason to punish them. The chilling effect is that once any part of you is oppressed, you are oppressed. If are oppressed and insulted, your desire to support the structure that oppresses you diminished. If your boss told you to recite 100 times every day that America is the shittiest country on earth, and slapped you if you didn't get to 100, you would probably want to leave the company. But according to your logic, it's separate from your ability to do work so you'd just take it and work diligently for him all the same.
Yes, there’s a reason why quantitative methods have won over in economics and it’s because they’ve been substantially more accurate. Solow-Swan for growth forecasting takes a fair bit to understand it’s assumptions and it’s calculations but it’s besides the point - model accuracy matters, not model complexity; and macroeconomic models on China have been accurate for decades.
So basically, once again, common sense works and all the economics training is only worth common sense. Try to step it up and you're immediately wrong. So economics training is worth common sense at best, book fool fantasies beyond that.
Bureaucratic infighting and competing interests - what are those? Happens everywhere
Occam's razor happens everywhere. Useless bullshit excuses happen everywhere in the US and the West.
That’s both assuming the SATs have gotten easier
Already showed the exit surveys from test takers that they are, which is what we have in the absense of a numeric measure for "ease."
and that College Board’s customers are test takers (they aren’t, it’s a captive audience) instead of state/local governments and universities.
Doesn't assume that at all, nor does it matter. It's the same reason that political correctness is taking over US education.
SUNY has had a handful of Nobel Laureates in the 2010s but it’s broadly distracting from the point - outside of UBuffalo and Stony Brook - the non flagship universities (all regional universities) are in effect - open admissions universities created by business interests - their stats and their operational issues will be reflective of that
Their students are dumb as fuck borderline criminals who basically don't pay to go to school, which is par for the course since they're too stupid to learn anything from the experience anyway.
Those cohorts aren’t applying to college in any case.
That's not even an excuse LOL. That's dogpiling onto America's educational failures.
The high school graduating cohort in 2020 graduated last month. Any hypothetical parade of horrors from going test optional has had more than enough time to play out.
1. Even if what you said made sense, which it doesn't, 1 month is not enough time for anything to play out. The people that eventually flood and rot the system are literally not smart enough to even know that a change has occurred that they can take advantage of until news slowly spreads by ear.
2. Right now is 2024. Much of the implementation is 2024-2025. What the hell does 2020 have to do with it?
They aren’t “degenerating”. They’ve been adversely selected areas since the 1970s since that’s when redlining, white flight, and exclusionary zoning came into force.
They are developed cities with no game plan to improve while China's rural areas are the fastest improving areas in the world.
Pretty regularly? The entire premise of A Nation At Risk, published in 1983 was that there were mass education failures everywhere. That report has been referenced and cited and continually referenced since…forever afterwards - - in basically all the school funding litigation, No Child Left Behind, Every Student Succeeds Act, among others. “The schools are mass failures” has been an accepted axiom since…forever since you can always find at least one district to find fault with.
Cite them and the numbers. I want to see how ugly it was. They had dozens of schools where every kid failed before? Why weren't the staff replaced with competent instructors?
It was worse because there was substantially higher abseentism and dropping out in the 1950s and 1960s.
But it wasn't 100%, was it? Because that's what EVERY KID FAILED means.
 
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manqiangrexue

Brigadier
There are in effect a handful of comparisons - those vis-a-vis China, those vis-a-vis a hypothetical ideal (that turn into chest beating about China), and then the comparative time-series that all get merged into one. The fruit example was for a generalized principle that fully applies in China.
You wanna make comparisons or not? You say America can buy fruit all year round not, which it couldn't 50 years ago so it improved in an absolute sense over itself. Nobody can or cares to refute that. You wanna compare to China, then comparatively, America is being left behind.
Nah. There are multitudes of reasons why the PhD as ability proxy doesn’t work (and if you were to use other proxies - such as income, it breaks down even further),
That's what people with no PhDs say LOL
those minorities have allegiance to their bank accounts (regardless of political conditions)
So basically, they have no loyalty to the US and can be bought and bribed, right?
and they also lack citizenship in other countries so it’s a moot point regardless.
Oh I think the Chinese guys and gals can return anytime and be accepted as sea turtles (maybe you don't know what it means; you don't need to)
And this of course is detracting from the original point - the U.S. born cohort of PhDs is larger than ever which necessarily implicates US human capital development.
Not in a competitive world with increasingly complex technology. If your team is worse, it makes obsolete technology, it might as well make nothing at all on a globally competitive market.
It was always STEM workforce with at least a bachelors degree.
No. You are wrong but still confident as always. I recommend you check instead of saying stupid and wrong things.
"A little over half of STEM workers do not have a bachelor’s degree and work primarily in health care (19%), construction trades (20%), installation, maintenance, and repair (21%), and production occupations (14%)"
The original contention was whether the foreign-born share was due to US inability or other factors. I’m pointing out that assuming it’s from inability leads to absolutely absurd conclusions.
But it's the Occam's Razor assumption; anything else without sufficient evidence is just an American politician excuse. And the conclusions are only absurd to those who desperately don't want to accept them.
If we go back dozens of messages (?), it was “omg I can’t imagine how all the people who drink and smoke recreationally in high school could perform at all, whatsoever” in reference to the high school class of 1980.
Who said that? Can you quote? Personally, I see American kids using less substances but getting stupider nonetheless.
The intervening decades have shown that it wasn’t a particularly large impediment and the human capital developed well, anyways. The current cohort in China is simply irrelevant.
You brought them up LOL. They're superperformers regardless.
This extends from the conclusion you agreed with a while back - but the current youth cohorts in both the U.S. & China are the highest performing cohorts that have ever graduated
I agreed that the US cohort was the strongest? When did I agree with that? I said that with SAT difficulty reductions and mass failures of every student in dozens of schools in America's developed metroplis' make US education look like it's in decline.
at all percentiles cohorts in China are going to be better performing than comparable US cohorts
This I definitely agree
 
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PiSigma

"the engineer"
Your goal make me very nervous ;) $6M by 50? gooosh, how would you do that ?

In NZ with choice lifestyle, for 2 people in Metro would need NZ$1.4K per week. and I believe I can do that comfortably (without paying rent). In NZ for a couple would get NZ super after 65 (for everybody even for super rich) roughly NZ$800 per week after tax for both
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View attachment 130973

So, if you have free mortgage home in NZ, even if you have NZ$600K between yourself and wife would be enough to retire (at 65) and the great thing in NZ you still can work when you are 65 and you get the salary and NZ super, no deduction. Of course my target is much higher than NZ$600K saving .... but nowhere near yours $6M (is it CAD$ or US$)
$6m CAD equivalent. Canada is actually kind of expensive for retirement since government literally only pay out a couple hundred bucks per months starting at 65. By the time I retire it's probably 68 to get payout. I basically assumed my current spending and more for retirement spending, this is due to extra free time so I figured I would travel more. For us average spending per month is 7-8k (no mortgages).

I haven't had a mortgage for 5 years, so it's pretty easy to save 10k+ CAD a month in average. Most months I don't save that much, it's the stock payouts and bonus every spring that's a instant 100k+ savings.

Both my wife and I are in our late 30s, and we are almost half way to our retirement goal, so freedom 50 should be doable. Only concern is the school fees for kids and college fees since both of our kids go to private school and tuition for collage has been going up.
 
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