American Economics Thread

[manqiangrexue]

Home ownership among young people in 2023 is higher than it was in 2018.

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But lower than it was in 2000-2011.
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What's your point? High home ownership is awesome?

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Young people’s are doing a very good job accumulating wealth, basically matching or exceeding prior generations while consuming substantially more.

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This "analysis" is apparently from a blogger who is angry at people for poking at his data, just like all the people with positive analysis of the US economy seem to be angry at young people saying that their lives are harder. In this comments of the article, people chew this guy up. He responds, "All the usual suspects of complainers! Is it adjusted for inflation? What about median? Why a log scale? How much is real estate? How much is stocks?"

Furthermore, when asked whether his data is inflation-adjusted, he says yes. They ask him where that is indicated. He says right on his chart. Then they point out that that tag was not seem anywhere from the data he cited as his sources and that he just threw it on there when making his charts, to which he admitted that he adjusted it himself... and they said he's being deceptive.

Anyway, here is data from someone who is not a blogger getting beat up on his own blog:

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Additionally, we have this:

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• The wealth gap between rich millennials and the rest of their age group is the largest of any generation, creating a new wave of class tension and resentment, according to a study.
• While the average millennial has less wealth at the age of 35 than previous generations, the top 10% of millennials have 20% more wealth than the top baby boomers at the same age.

The United States has a very large statistical bureaucracy to measure everything under the sun to “self-reflect and improve their situation”, but okay.

LOL So does every modern country. In the US, their job is to explain everything away and find ways to make everything look ok for election.

 

[tokenanalyst]

Why are you deliberately trying to promote a simplistic narrative of "America's economy is great, nothing is wrong! Rah Rah!" when the articles you listed provide a much more nuanced view of the actual state of the American economy? Further the second article is a straight up opinion blog from someone who clearly has a decidedly un-objective view on the subject.

Why are you engaging in narrative manipulation?

Like I said before that the floor could be crumbling under their feet and they will always point to others, mainly China. Then when bad things happens everyone in the mainstream garbage media will ask "Why we didn't see it coming?"

 

[FriedButter]

Housing, energy and retail food (not restaurants).

Don’t forget about transportation.

 

[henrik]

The United States has a very large statistical bureaucracy to measure everything under the sun to “self-reflect and improve their situation”, but okay.

Most US statistics are faked and directed by the government for misleading the general public.

 

[abenomics12345]

Pretty soon Gen Z in Five Eyes are gonna be bigger Maoists than 60s era Red Guards…

The Blue Freedom Guards of the Great Capitalistic Cultural Revolution of the Un-united States of America

 

[luminary]

Most competent silicon valley CEO:

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"What do you mean, I can't fire my employees willy-nilly?"

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(indexed to 100 at the first Yield curve inversion) relative to the 2000s dot com bubble; and layoffs haven’t even stopped yet.

 

[chgough34]

But lower than it was in 2000-2011.
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Wrong cohort. Home ownership will always be lower for individuals under 35 because they’ve had less time to save money.

This "analysis" is apparently from a blogger who is angry at people for poking at his data, just like all the people with positive analysis of the US economy seem to be angry at young people saying that their lives are harder. In this comments of the article, people chew this guy up. He responds, "All the usual suspects of complainers! Is it adjusted for inflation? What about median? Why a log scale? How much is real estate? How much is stocks?"

Yeah, it’s a cross tab of fed data from a professor at UArk (iirc). It’s not hard-hitting research

Furthermore, when asked whether his data is inflation-adjusted, he says yes. They ask him where that is indicated. He says right on his chart. Then they point out that that tag was not seem anywhere from the data he cited as his sources and that he just threw it on there when making his charts, to which he admitted that he adjusted it himself... and they said he's being deceptive.

Anyway, here is data from someone who is not a blogger getting beat up on his own blog:

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So both Horpedhal and the Washington Post are citing the same source, the Distributional Financial Accounts (which themselves are based on the Survey of Consumer Finances which are inflation adjusted - see “in 2022 dollars” at the top of the graph -

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) and said WaPo graphic isn’t determinative because Baby Boomers were by far, the largest U.S. birth cohort (so they’d have a larger share of national wealth, regardless)

 

[manqiangrexue]

Wrong cohort. Home ownership will always be lower for individuals under 35 because they’ve had less time to save money.

This is the overall state of the US economy, which encompasses all ages. The chart is all-inclusive. This is the right cohort; you don't say what's the right cohort.

Yeah, it’s a cross tab of fed data from a professor at UArk (iirc). It’s not hard-hitting research

Then why did you post it?

So both Horpedhal and the Washington Post are citing the same source, the Distributional Financial Accounts (which themselves are based on the Survey of Consumer Finances which are inflation adjusted - see “in 2022 dollars” at the top of the graph -

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)

Very nice. So... in the 18 years between 2004 and 2022, the total increase mounted to 3.7%? Cool. I'm just gonna give you that one LOL

and said WaPo graphic isn’t determinative because Baby Boomers were by far, the largest U.S. birth cohort (so they’d have a larger share of national wealth, regardless)

From that article:
"in 1990, boomers owned 21 percent of the nation’s wealth and represented 31 percent of the population, for a wealth-to-population ratio of 0.68 — each percentage point of the total U.S. population represented by boomers, in other words, owned 0.68 percent of the wealth.

In 2008, on the other hand, Gen Xers owned 9 percent of the wealth and made up 22 percent of the population, for a wealth-to-population ratio of 0.41."

My comments:
If we go further, we can see that in 2019 (the limit of the data), GenX owned about 17% of wealth at age 47, an age at which Boomers owned about 43% of the wealth. That means by age 47, each GenX percent owned 0.773% of the wealth while by age 47, each Boomer percent owned 1.387% of the wealth. Now those percentages will have changed a bit due to time, but the ratio between Boomer and GenX should be basically the same as they were 31% Boomer to 22% GenX.

It continues:
"That’s a smaller generational deficit than the raw numbers suggest, but it’s still a significant one. It illustrates the size of the financial hole today’s young adults are in relative to their parents. It’s a hole they’ll never truly be able to dig out of, given the way that money draws other money to itself via the gravitational pull of compound interest: The less money you start out with, the less you’ll make during the rest of your life."

More from the article:
"Millennials haven’t hit the 35 mark yet — that won’t happen until about 2023 — but their financial situation is relatively dire. They own just 3.2 percent of the nation’s wealth. To catch up to Gen Xers, they’d need to triple their wealth in just four years. To reach boomers, their net worth would need a sevenfold jump."

 

[chgough34]

This is the overall state of the US economy, which encompasses all ages. The chart is all-inclusive. This is the right cohort; you don't say what's the right cohort.

The contention was on whether young people are home owners.

Very nice. So... in the 18 years between 2004 and 2022, the total increase mounted to 3.7%? Cool. I'm just gonna give you that one LOL

From that article:
"in 1990, boomers owned 21 percent of the nation’s wealth and represented 31 percent of the population, for a wealth-to-population ratio of 0.68 — each percentage point of the total U.S. population represented by boomers, in other words, owned 0.68 percent of the wealth.

In 2008, on the other hand, Gen Xers owned 9 percent of the wealth and made up 22 percent of the population, for a wealth-to-population ratio of 0.41."

My comments:
If we go further, we can see that in 2019 (the limit of the data), GenX owned about 17% of wealth at age 47, an age at which Boomers owned about 43% of the wealth. That means by age 47, each GenX percent owned 0.773% of the wealth while by age 47, each Boomer percent owned 1.387% of the wealth. Now those percentages will have changed a bit due to time, but the ratio between Boomer and GenX should be basically the same as they were 31% Boomer to 22% GenX.

It continues:
"That’s a smaller generational deficit than the raw numbers suggest, but it’s still a significant one. It illustrates the size of the financial hole today’s young adults are in relative to their parents. It’s a hole they’ll never truly be able to dig out of, given the way that money draws other money to itself via the gravitational pull of compound interest: The less money you start out with, the less you’ll make during the rest of your life."

More from the article:
"Millennials haven’t hit the 35 mark yet — that won’t happen until about 2023 — but their financial situation is relatively dire. They own just 3.2 percent of the nation’s wealth. To catch up to Gen Xers, they’d need to triple their wealth in just four years. To reach boomers, their net worth would need a sevenfold jump."

Yes: people become wealthier as they age - and individuals are attaining the same net worth conditional on age regardless of the cohort they are in. Younger cohorts (who are smaller - henceforth baby boomers will have more wealth because they are larger).

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1542634371823329280

 

[manqiangrexue]

The contention was on whether young people are home owners.

The contention is the US economy. It is not limited to some 35 year old whatever. The chart shows the full economy of the US in terms of home ownership. It is the correct cohort on the correct topic. You will not limit or cherry pick the data with me.

Yes: people become wealthier as they age - and individuals are attaining the same net worth conditional on age regardless of the cohort they are in.

No: You have confused net worth with income. Your chart shows a very very very anemic rise in income... average 0.02% over 18 years. My post showed net worth as a percentage of total wealth.

Younger cohorts (who are smaller - henceforth baby boomers will have more wealth because they are larger).

Reading comprehension FAIL. Redo your reading assignment:
From that article:
"in 1990, boomers owned 21 percent of the nation’s wealth and represented 31 percent of the population, for a wealth-to-population ratio of 0.68 — each percentage point of the total U.S. population represented by boomers, in other words, owned 0.68 percent of the wealth.

In 2008, on the other hand, Gen Xers owned 9 percent of the wealth and made up 22 percent of the population, for a wealth-to-population ratio of 0.41."

My comments:
If we go further, we can see that in 2019 (the limit of the data), GenX owned about 17% of wealth at age 47, an age at which Boomers owned about 43% of the wealth. That means by age 47, each GenX percent owned 0.773% of the wealth while by age 47, each Boomer percent owned 1.387% of the wealth. Now those percentages will have changed a bit due to time, but the ratio between Boomer and GenX should be basically the same as they were 31% Boomer to 22% GenX.

It continues:
"That’s a smaller generational deficit than the raw numbers suggest, but it’s still a significant one. It illustrates the size of the financial hole today’s young adults are in relative to their parents. It’s a hole they’ll never truly be able to dig out of, given the way that money draws other money to itself via the gravitational pull of compound interest: The less money you start out with, the less you’ll make during the rest of your life."

More from the article:
"Millennials haven’t hit the 35 mark yet — that won’t happen until about 2023 — but their financial situation is relatively dire. They own just 3.2 percent of the nation’s wealth. To catch up to Gen Xers, they’d need to triple their wealth in just four years. To reach boomers, their net worth would need a sevenfold jump."

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1542634371823329280

This is the "It’s not hard-hitting research" blogger with the grudge against "complainers" again? LOL Basically saying the same things that got him chewed up all over his own blog for dishonesty?

Take a stance. Either say something is good, reliable research or say it's not hard-hitting research. Right now, you're like, "This guy says what I want to hear; listen to him. Oh wait, ok he got exposed for dishonesty on his own post by multiple people, it's not hard-hitting research, no big deal. No wait, look at his new posts! I'm behind his new posts again; let's acknowledge those!"

LOL Grass don't bend in the wind that fast.