American Economics Thread

[chgough34]

Ok I reread AndewS's post and saw he posted 90k, not 100k. Don't know why you are still using the wrong percentile, 100k is 82 percentile.

100K is between 80-82nd percentile since the Current Population Survey lacks specificity, but aligns with the IRS data (and 160 million Americans work so 160 million returns match that income data)

And I disagree with your subjective definition of affluence when 100k gross income is insufficient for even home ownership in most US metros where jobs paying 100k actually exist.

100K makes homes affordable in most metro areas and if it’s an individual, they wouldn’t need an average home, they’d just buy a condo.

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[Serb]

Bankruptcy Filings Increase Across All Chapters in First Quarter 2024​

New bankruptcy filings during the first calendar quarter of 2024 (Jan. 1 through March 31) registered year-over-year increases across all U.S. major filing categories, according to data provided by Epiq Bankruptcy, the leading provider of U.S. bankruptcy filing data.

Total commercial chapter 11 filings (including subchapter V) registered the largest increase, as the 1,894 filings during the first quarter of 2024 were up 43 percent from the 1,325 total commercial chapter 11s during the same period in 2023. Total overall commercial bankruptcies increased 22 percent in the first quarter of 2024, as the 7,113 filings surpassed the 5,820 commercial filings during the first quarter of 2023. Subchapter V elections for small businesses increased 30 percent to 606 filings in Q1 2024 from the 465 filed during Q1 2023.

The 120,094 total bankruptcy filings represented a 14 percent increase from the 105,497 total filings during the same period last year. Consumer filings increased 13 percent, to 112,981 filings in the first quarter of 2024 from the 99,677 consumer filings during the same period in 2023. Individual chapter 7 filings during the first quarter of 2024 were 66,861, a 17 percent increase over the 57,158 individual chapter 7 filings during the same period in 2023. Individual chapter 13 filings during the first quarter of 2024 were 45,958, a 9 percent increase over the 42,362 individual chapter 13 filings in the same period of 2023.

“As we expected, the upward trajectory in both commercial and individual related bankruptcy filing volumes continue,” said

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, Vice President of Epiq AACER. “March marks 20 consecutive months that total, individual, and commercial bankruptcy filings have registered monthly year-over-year increases. Factors contributing to this trend are the higher cost of funds and interest rates, a reduction in consumer discretionary spending, higher housing costs, and a continued drawdown of excess savings. These factors coupled with the post-pandemic anticipated normalization of bankruptcy volumes lead me to believe this upward trend will continue through 2024.”

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https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1776708745990406409

Only the stock market is continuously, realistically doing well due to media propaganda machinery on sheeple activated to the fullest (without even pretending to be objective 1% anymore), including that bullshit AI hype, and strong large-cap corporate earnings (that were already on a long-term growth trajectory) based on the cannibalization of the smaller fish companies, government, general public, due to rent-seeking, etc. This is my personal assessment, and I'm not just "shitting on the US".

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IT Employment Grew by Just 700 Jobs in 2023, Down From 267,000 in 2022​

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[FriedRiceNSpice]

100K makes homes affordable in most metro areas and if it’s an individual, they wouldn’t need an average home, they’d just buy a condo.

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The majority of jobs that pay 100k+ are in the first 7 cities of that list. If you look at the cities where you can afford a house on 100k or less, there are a statistically insignificant number of jobs paying $100k.

From your fantasies, it becomes apparent you have either never lived in the US, or have had to support yourself/and or a family in the US.

 

[broadsword]

There was actually massive inflation during 2018-2020 that no one noticed is a ridiculous statement since everyone can observe prices

Then rebut them.

 

[chgough34]

The majority of jobs that pay 100k+ are in the first 7 cities of that list. If you look at the cities where you can afford a house on 100k or less, there are a statistically insignificant number of jobs paying $100k.

From your fantasies, it becomes apparent you have either never lived in the US, or have had to support yourself/and or a family in the US.

Nonsense. The first 7 metro areas on the list (New York City - 19.5 million, Los Angeles - 12.8 million, Boston - 4.9 million, San Francisco - 4.6 million, Seattle - 4 million, San Diego - 3.3 million, and San Jose - 1.9 million) have a combined population of 51 million or 15% of the population. It’s previously established that at a minimum, 20% of US workers make over 100K. So even if all high income earners lived in those 7 metro areas, there would still be another 5% for other metro areas. And of course, since poor people exist in all of those 7 metro areas, that would make the existence of 100K jobs in those non-7 metro areas even more common. For example, 20% of individuals in the Milwaukee metropolitan area make more than 100K and 27% of individuals in the Kansas City metropolitan area make more than 100K (

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). The U.S. economy is simply so large after 2 centuries of nonstop capital formation and technological development that mass affluence is a fact of life and substantial opportunities exist in every boring mid-sized area to make piles of cash by being a regional bank, a hospital, a mid-sized law firm, an accountant for area school districts and whatever else have you.

Disparities between metro areas in the U.S. simply aren’t that large and for the typical able-bodied middle-aged college graduate that works full time, making >100K is bog-standard.

 

[chgough34]

Nonsense. The first 7 metro areas on the list (New York City - 19.5 million, Los Angeles - 12.8 million, Boston - 4.9 million, San Francisco - 4.6 million, Seattle - 4 million, San Diego - 3.3 million, and San Jose - 1.9 million) have a combined population of 51 million or 15% of the population. It’s previously established that at a minimum, 20% of US workers make over 100K. So even if all high income earners lived in those 7 metro areas, there would still be another 5% for other metro areas. And of course, since poor people exist in all of those 7 metro areas, that would make the existence of 100K jobs in those non-7 metro areas even more common. For example, 20% of individuals in the Milwaukee metropolitan area make more than 100K and 27% of individuals in the Kansas City metropolitan area make more than 100K (

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). The U.S. economy is simply so large after 2 centuries of nonstop capital formation and technological development that mass affluence is a fact of life and substantial opportunities exist in every boring mid-sized area to make piles of cash by being a regional bank, a hospital, a mid-sized law firm, an accountant for area school districts and whatever else have you.

Disparities between metro areas in the U.S. simply aren’t that large and for the typical able-bodied middle-aged college graduate that works full time, making >100K is bog-standard.

Even in some of the poorest metropolitan areas in the U.S. - making 100K is very normal. For example, in the Jackson, Miss. metropolitan area. 10% of individuals make more than 100K. In the Erie, PA metropolitan area, 20% of individuals make more than 100K. In Las Vegas, 16% of individuals make more than 100K. In the border towns of El Paso, TX and Las Cruces, NM, those numbers are 10% of individuals making >100K.

 

[RavenClaws]

<20% is already not normal, 10% is laughable.

Yes, the top 10-20% population of the US live comfortably, with a lower tax burden than the rest of the developed world, they have consistently seen improvements to their wealth over the last 40 years unlike the bottom 80%.

However it takes some sort of sleepy copium to say that is "normal" in the US. Vast majority live paycheck to paycheck.

 

[FriedRiceNSpice]

Even in some of the poorest metropolitan areas in the U.S. - making 100K is very normal. For example, in the Jackson, Miss. metropolitan area. 10% of individuals make more than 100K. In the Erie, PA metropolitan area, 20% of individuals make more than 100K. In Las Vegas, 16% of individuals make more than 100K. In the border towns of El Paso, TX and Las Cruces, NM, those numbers are 10% of individuals making >100K.

How is making >100k normal when over 80% of people do not make 100k? Even for the 20% earning >100k, 100k is far from enough for an affluent lifestyle when 100k is the minimum needed for buy a home in a US metro area. I have no idea what your definition of affluence is, but buying a shitty home at the median price range and then barely getting buy on living expenses is not affluence.

Yes, the top 10-20% population of the US live comfortably, with a lower tax burden than the rest of the developed world, they have consistently seen improvements to their wealth over the last 40 years unlike the bottom 80%.

The ~5% of the population that has benefited from actual improvements in wealth are not building wealth by saving their incomes. They either inherited generational wealth or bought real estate 10-30 years ago or got extremely lucky with timing individual stocks/bitcoin.
By income alone, even top 2-3% is not enough to be able to afford the kind of affluent lifestyle @chgough34 fantasizes about (McMansion, 2 decent cars, "overflowing" savings, expensive vacations).

 

[chgough34]

How is making >100k normal when over 80% of people do not make 100k? Even for the 20% earning >100k, 100k is far from enough for an affluent lifestyle when 100k is the minimum needed for buy a home in a US metro area. I have no idea what your definition of affluence is, but buying a shitty home at the median price range and then barely getting buy on living expenses is not affluence.

Needs to be fleshed out a bit. There are tens of millions of individuals that earn a low income for non-economic reasons (disability, illness, foreign-born residents with a lack of cultural familiarity and language skills and family emergencies/parenting) as well as those that earn a low income due to mass affluence (college students living off their parents, early retirees, etc). Once these individuals are excluded from the calculation and you add a very simple “have a college degree” and “work full time” condition, earning 100K is extremely common. As long as you are an able-bodied person with reasonably good English skills, a college degree, and work full time; the chance you make >100K soars exponentially.

The ~5% of the population that has benefited from actual improvements in wealth are not building wealth by saving their incomes. They either inherited generational wealth or bought real estate 10-30 years ago or got extremely lucky with timing individual stocks/bitcoin.
By income alone, even top 2-3% is not enough to be able to afford the kind of affluent lifestyle @chgough34 fantasizes about (McMansion, 2 decent cars, "overflowing" savings, expensive vacations).

No.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1604995451907883008

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1604995457251434497

 

[chgough34]

<20% is already not normal, 10% is laughable.

Yes, the top 10-20% population of the US live comfortably, with a lower tax burden than the rest of the developed world, they have consistently seen improvements to their wealth over the last 40 years unlike the bottom 80%.

However it takes some sort of sleepy copium to say that is "normal" in the US. Vast majority live paycheck to paycheck.

Yeah nonsense - the vast majority of US households have positive net worth which can’t happen if they live “paycheck to paycheck”. Around a third of US individuals over 25y/o have college degrees, the top 10-20% is not some super exclusive club, it’s basically every white collar worker in mid-career.

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