American Economics Thread

HighGround

Senior Member
Registered Member
Yellen's facial gestures tells it all :)
The reason why the US is going after the crypto industry is because the crypto enthusiasts are undermining the US dollar and cheering its demise.
This was inevitable after they seized Russia's assets. You can't freeze hundreds of billions of a major power an expect no consequences. These things send messages to people and about how safe any assets are in the West.

But again, I'm warning people, this isn't going to happen nearly as fast as you think. Or as slow as others think (US pundits)
 

BlackWindMnt

Captain
Registered Member
This was inevitable after they seized Russia's assets. You can't freeze hundreds of billions of a major power an expect no consequences. These things send messages to people and about how safe any assets are in the West.

But again, I'm warning people, this isn't going to happen nearly as fast as you think. Or as slow as others think (US pundits)
Dedollarisation domino theory bruh...
Also what is fast and what is slow, if it takes like 15 years that would still be fast if you ask me.
 

HighGround

Senior Member
Registered Member
Marco Rubio (I think ?) complained about the US becoming unable to sanction countries within 15 years. If that is true, then that's a very fast pace for global dedollarization. What do the more knowledgeable members here think?
15 years is about the right time-frame for de-dollarization I think, but Rubio is talking about a different phenomena.

US Sanctions are going to become less and less effective in the future (indeed they already have), because the playbook is pretty much well-known at this point. The potential consequences of US sanctions are already accounted for in any State's decision making process. Indeed, Russia expected sanctions and took appropriate measures, but they didn't expect the West to escalate to such a high point.

But that's the thing, United States has to rely on economic escalation which comes at increasing economic costs to itself, in order to hurt its adversaries. As United States engages in more and more sanctions, it ironically, ends up isolating itself. Note the difficulty and diplomatic muscle that United States has to exert in order to get its allies to sanction China. And these sanctions are extremely limited in their scope compared to Russian or Iranian sanctions.

So Rubio is correct. It may even happen sooner. The reliance of United States on sanctions has resulted in vast overuse of economic coercion, to a point that it's becoming detrimental to its own economy. Especially as China has become the largest trade partner for a lot of the Global South. In fact, the only reason sanctions on the Russian Federation are even as effective as they are now, is because China is willing to play ball with the "International System". As soon as that breaks down, the US ability to effectively sanction independent states will become much more limited.
 

Strangelove

Colonel
Registered Member
What's different this time is that the world's dedollarizing...


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US debt hits historic high​

The record was reached just two weeks after the government was given leave to keep borrowing without limits through 2024

US debt hits historic high

© Getty Images / John Lund

US national debt passed a record $32 trillion for the first time ever this week, data
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on Friday by the Treasury Department shows.

The milestone was reached less than two weeks after President Joe Biden signed a bill suspending Washington’s $31.4 trillion limit, averting what would have been a first-ever US debt default. The measure allowed the country’s government to borrow unlimited funds until January 1, 2025, when the debt ceiling suspension ends. This means the government can continue to pay for services at home, such as social security and Medicare, by borrowing money abroad and effectively amassing even more debt.

The ceiling was scrapped following repeated warnings from the US Treasury that unless the step was taken, the country would default on its obligations. The borrowing limit was reached back in January, and the Treasury had a limited arsenal of measures it could implement to stave off the default, which was expected to happen in early June. The warnings prompted a heated, months-long debate between Republicans and Democrats over spending priorities, which put the measure’s approval at risk.

On the first business day after the debt ceiling was scrapped, federal borrowing surged roughly $400 billion.
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According to the New York Times, the $32 trillion mark was reached nine years sooner than pre-Covid-19 pandemic forecasts had projected. Experts say that, in order to avoid another crisis, the government needs to address the factors driving the debt.

As we race past $32 trillion with no end in sight, it’s well past time to address the fundamental drivers of our debt, which are mandatory spending growth and the lack of sufficient revenues to fund it,” Michael A. Peterson, head of the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, told the news outlet. According to the foundation’s projections, the US could amass another $127 trillion in debt over the next 30 years, with interest costs taking up roughly 40% of the country’s federal revenues by 2053.
 

Bellum_Romanum

Brigadier
Registered Member

Pretty impressive to see how the US has practically managed to lift Silicon Valley out of a recession with the AI chatGPT hype. Although, the fact that
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ells you all you need to know about how real the hype is.
Not according to a White Chinese expert coming up with this excellent take:

"China is facing the crisis of managing their economy artificially with the state putting their finger on the scale, and not allowing markets to function and have normal necessary downturns.

China has also been artificially inflating their property sector, by building at any cost which is the primary revenue source of provinces and many cities.

But, artificially inflating property prices has meant workers need ever higher salaries to be able to afford them, which means labor costs keep rising, making China less and less competitive with Vietnam, India, Philippines, etc.

Add in the fact that with single child policies, which allows parents to send the kids to get advanced degrees, and as a result have little interest in factory labor, and the population rapidly aging, China's manufacturing is at a crisis point.

China doesn't innovate, their entire business model is based on reverse engineering and hacking western companies to steal their designs.

Their attempts to become a technology leader have floundered in corruption, graft, waste and incompetence, along with a culture that values mediocrity rather than risk taking."
 

Strangelove

Colonel
Registered Member
Please de-risk...


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US automakers to face high costs if they shun Chinese batteries, other parts

By GT staff reporters Published: Jun 20, 2023 10:06 PM

Staff members work at a workshop of an auto manufacturing enterprise in Qingdao, East China's Shandong Province. Photo: Xinhua

Staff members work at a workshop of an auto manufacturing enterprise in Qingdao, East China's Shandong Province. Photo: Xinhua

US officials are reportedly urging American automakers to "shrink reliance" on auto parts at a time when Secretary of State Antony Blinken just concluded his visit to Beijing and affirmed his objection to "decoupling" from China.

The move, experts said, reflected the US' political fracturing which is the "biggest obstacle" to China-US relations' returning to normalcy.

According to a Reuters report, a group of US congressional lawmakers will travel to Detroit to meet with CEOs of Ford Motor and General Motors in order to "shrink reliance" on made-in-China auto parts, such as electric vehicle batteries.

The report also cited sources as saying that some US Republicans plan to meet executives of other auto suppliers including Bosch and BorgWarner.

Ford was cited by the media as saying that it shares the lawmakers' purpose of strengthening American competitiveness and establishing electric vehicle supply chains in the US.

In contrast, overseas car brands like Tesla have ramped up investment in China in recent years to benefit from Chinese consumers' booming demand for vehicles. According to data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, China sold 26.86 million vehicles in 2022, up 2.1 percent on a yearly basis.

The US lawmakers' move to pressure its carmakers took place after US Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrived in China. During a press conference in Beijing on Monday, Blinken echoed US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's recent remarks that the US should not seek "decoupling" from China.

"There is a profound difference, for the US and for many other countries, between de-risking and decoupling," Blinken said. "Healthy and robust economic engagement benefits both the US and China. And as Secretary Yellen testified before Congress last week, it would be, as she put it, disastrous for us to decouple and stop all trade and investment with China."

On the same day, Blinken met with a small group of US business leaders in Beijing to discuss the role private companies can play in supporting China-US relations, according to a statement published on the WeChat account of AmCham China.

"On the one hand, the US government is trying to talk to China to stabilize relations. On the other hand, they are adopting tough measures, including pressuring China in key industries like auto manufacturing. This kind of political fracturing would likely trigger doubts and dissatisfaction in society and public opinion, while bringing difficulties to the US government in executing their policies," Hong Yong, an expert at the digital real economies integration Forum 50, told the Global Times on Tuesday.

According to Hong, it is hard to predict the tone of the US' economic and trade policies toward China in the next stage, given the "complicated" situation between China and the US. But seen in the long run, the US is likely to toughen policies against China, he said.

Chen Jia, a veteran macroeconomic analyst, told the Global Times on Tuesday that the US has a strategy of "obscuring decoupling measures" with verbal promises of "not decoupling" from China, but doing the opposite.

The experts also pointed out that if the US government moves to expand its suppression of Chinese enterprises, it would only cause more economic losses to American companies.

Hong noted that China has huge advantages in making electric vehicle batteries. If American automakers turn their back to Chinese batteries, it means they will have to face higher production costs.
 
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