American Economics Thread

Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
Thank you, I always forget that the oil market is considerably more complicated than just "Crude Sell Crude Buy". Quality post.

True. There is also the additional layer about refineries.

Let us say you have a fixed finite N number of refineries refining diesel at a fixed rate. You produce this fixed X number of diesel as your output.

It does not matter how much reserves you find and how much oil you drill or how much crude you buy, the output of diesel is still fixed and tied to existing and present refinery capacity, and the only way to grow this is to build more refineries, which takes huge capital investment like a semiconductor fab and need years to build.

So let's say you have a situation where your number of refinery is going down, thanks to retirement of old facilities, like many in the West, or because these refineries are in sanctioned countries, e.g. Russia, or countries you might have a cold war on, e.g. China, then your diesel supply will drop and the price will go high regardless of the price of the crude or how much you drill.

This puts new light to say, why you want other alternative forms of fuel or energy for transportation, in which you have a three pronged approach --- first is to move to electrification, second is to increase the efficiency of your remaining ICE gasoline, and third, is to continue to shift away from diesel using environmental excuses with tightening government regulation.
 

Biscuits

Major
Registered Member
American infrastructure approaching India's levels:
It reminds of when at the worst period of commercialization in China, you'd see trucks have these unstable amounts of loadouts. But I don't think I've ever seen a train lol

Aside from the little climate setback from bad infrastructure, which is tbh a long time in the making, US seems to have stabilized the shocks of taking on Russia's economy in the last year, and can now resume towards normal (0.5-2%) real growth rate.

That should not be downplayed as an achievement. Afaik, recession or stagflation will not come to US soon, although they'll not exactly be growing at speeds that would let them overtake China for the forseeable future either.
 

luminary

Senior Member
Registered Member
IsAmericans' average retirement savings plunged by 20 percent in 2022 despite many increasing their contributions, due to the falling stock market. The comment section blames Biden, the liberals, the socialists and Russian propaganda (in that order) for ruining the economy and putting retirees into poverty.
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Ironically, mere days before, the Republican house proposed to raise retirement age and privatise social security.
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The uber-rich are panic-buying EU citizenship in droves, securing their escape routes out in face of the impending US collapse. Practicing the time-honored tradition of jumping ship and leaving the poor holding the bag. They'll continue their corruption in Europe.
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For the first time, Americans are applying for golden passports and visas more than any other nationality, according to Henley & Partners' 2023 USA Wealth Report, released Thursday. Historically, the programs have been dominated by Chinese and Russian nationals.
The record number of American applicants is the result of high-net-worth individuals "future-proofing their American lives" amid inflation, social and political unrest, and a shrinking middle class in the US, global investment expert and financial writer Jeff D. Opdyke, said in the report.
 

Stierlitz

Junior Member
Registered Member

The S&P Global US Composite PMI rose to 50.2 in February 2023, up sharply from 46.8 in the previous month and easily beating market expectations of 47.5, a preliminary estimate showed. The latest reading was the highest for eight months and signaled broadly unchanged output on the month across the private sector, helped by a marginal increase in service sector output and a slower decline in manufacturing production. New orders continued to contract, although the rate of decline eased to the slowest since last October, with new export sales decreasing at the joint-softest rate since last May. Meanwhile, the rate of job creation accelerated to the fastest since September, while backlogs of work fell the least for five months. On the price front, input cost inflation was the second-slowest since October 2020, while output charges rose the most since last October as firms passed through hikes in costs to their clients. Finally, business confidence was the strongest since last May. source: Markit Economics


Existing home sales in the US which include completed transactions of single-family homes, town homes, condominiums and co-ops declined 0.7% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.0 million in January of 2023, a twelfth straight month of decreases, and compared to forecasts of 4.1 million. It is the lowest reading since October of 2010. Decreases were reported in the East and Midwest while the South and the West registered increases. The median existing-home sales price increased 1.3% from one year ago to $359,000. The inventory of unsold existing homes grew from the prior month to 980,000 at the end of January, or the equivalent of 2.9 months’ supply at the current monthly sales pace. “Home sales are bottoming out. Prices vary depending on a market’s affordability, with lower-priced regions witnessing modest growth and more expensive regions experiencing declines”, said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. source: National Association of Realtors


S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for the US increased to 47.8 in February of 2023 from 46.9 in January, beating forecasts of 47.1, preliminary estimates showed. The reading pointed to a fourth consecutive month of falling factory activity although the smallest in the current sequence of decline. Production continued to fall amid weak client demand and new orders decreased sharply, with some companies noting that sufficient stocks at customers and high inflation dampened demand conditions. Meanwhile, lower buying activity also contributed towards an improvement in vendor performance. Suppliers’ delivery times were reduced to the greatest extent since May 2009 amid weak demand for inputs and fewer logistics issues. Employment rose at the fastest pace since last September and firms reduced their backlogs of work solidly. Input prices softened although selling prices rose the most in three months. Finally, the level of business confidence was broadly in line with that seen in January. source: Markit Economics

 

Bellum_Romanum

Brigadier
Registered Member
US GDP rises by 2.7% in Q4
The gross domestic product (GDP) of the United States saw an annual growth of 2.7% in the fourth quarter of 2022, slightly less than expected and predicted earlier, the Bureau of Economic Analysis stated in its second estimate published on Thursday. In the third trimester, the country's economy went up by 3.2%.

The price index for gross domestic purchases increased by 3.6%, more than forecast. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index expanded by 3.7%, also more than the first estimate foretold. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index grew by 4.3%, surpassing expectations from the previous report.

In the entire 2022, the real GDP expanded by 2.1%, unchanged in comparison to the first estimate and less than 5.9% observed in 2021.

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