American Economics Thread
- Thread starter Bernard
- Start date
If you believe inflation only 9% I have a discount NFT I would like to sell you lol
Massive drought.... agricultural output going take a hammering, US food inflation to the moon! (And don't blame China for not meeting purchase targets when you can't produce shit).
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Would be interesting to compare with past droughts to see if climate change are really making droughts worst.
A lot of the major lakes in the western part of the US is experiencing critical levels or their record lowest. I think one of them got so low to the point that the hydropower generation from it got affected. The news describes them as unprecedent and never happened before, so I'm assuming things are really bad.
In Soviet Russia the numbers on the TV keep whizzing upwards while the numbers in the breadline also keep whizzing upwards.
The Polish oil refineries are hooked into the Druzhba oil pipeline to Russia. There was a proposed oil bypass pipeline through Ukraine. Which went to pipelines in Nikolayev and Odessa. Some backup. The Poles also used to import coal from Russia. Poland imports 20% of its coal, 50% of its gas, and 60% of its oil from Russia. They are just being retards I think.
The Poles are going to tap into the pipeline which goes from Norway into Germany. Supposed to come into operation late this year. It will not increase global gas imports from Norway into Europe. They are basically taking Norwegian gas that otherwise be going into Germany into Poland. Shuffling the deck chairs on the Titanic. But of course, then they can claim they are independent on Russian gas and possibly block flows through Yamal pipeline into Germany and rest of Europe. How nice of them.
Here you have. Poland's brilliant plan to improve European energy security vs Russian gas imports.
They will also import US LNG but it is nowhere near enough. And "Norwegian LNG" that might be Russian LNG transferred to Norwegian LNG ships in ship to ship transfers in the sea. Like it was discovered some years ago.
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All of that, just to not buy Russian gas. The dumbest part I think from all of their posturing is they'll likely just buy the Russian gas from a third-party or quietly transition back to buying them after the whole situation cools down. Its not enough that they are supplied with gas, it has to be economical and at large quantities to keep their industries running competitively and inflation low.Here you have. Poland's brilliant plan to improve European energy security vs Russian gas imports.
Not sure what Poland has left at this point other than being a low cost auxiliary of Germany. Ukrainian industry got destroyed after 1991 due to privatization and they had like 50% swings in nominal GDP year to year.
I think their idea, well, the Visegrad group idea, pushed by some people in the US, is to ring fence Russia with a broad coalition of former Warsaw Pact countries now in NATO. Those would be pumped full of weapons and basically cause Russia to go into a massive conventional arms race just to keep up. That is why Poland, and other nations in Europe, started breaking the Conventional Forces in Europe treaty. These countries would also have bases in the Baltic and Black Sea and contest the Russian Navy there. Threatening to block Russia's main import/export ports. Poland would use incomes on transit through the Yamal pipeline to fund their own rearmament program. Ukraine would do the same with their pipeline. Basically Germany and Italy and other nations in the EU would be paying Russia to pay Poland and Ukraine to arm themselves against Russia. Sounds almost as good as the Trump plan to build a wall with Mexico and making Mexico pay for the wall no? Except Russia and Germany built the NordStream pipeline, Russia and Turkey built the TurkStream pipeline, and put a kibosh on those plans by bypassing both Poland and Ukraine. Oops.
NordStream has 60bcm capacity and NordStream 2 doubles that. TurkStream has 30bcm capacity. Total gas exports of Russia to Europe and Turkey last year were 155bcm. So, you can easily cover that with the capacity of those pipelines. Now, that is not near enough to cover total European capacity in a non-COVID 19 depressed economy standard. And in an economy where the gas fields in the North Sea and the Netherlands are winding down. But should be enough to keep Europe at the COVID-19 economic standard. If Germany does not want to license NordStream 2 after, what I think, will be inevitable closing down by the Poles of Yamal pipeline, and maybe the Ukrainians of their pipelines. Then that is their problem.
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