No, I think my read on the strategic situation in Europe is accurate.
The European Union is simply too divided from a political and military perspective. So outside powers (Russia/USA/China) are able to meddle with the internal politics of the EU. So there is political space for US military commitments in the absence of an "European Army" to balance against Russia.
That is the main reason why NATO exists.
And the melting of the arctic is mostly irrelevant. Northern Russia is always going to suffer from an extreme winter climate, which means people don't want to live in the frozen North in darkness for 6months of the year, and which makes sustaining industry/construction a huge challenge.
In comparison, the Panama Canal has a tropical climate and is open all year around.
Europe purposefully divided.
In the past 100 years UK/France/USA played "divide and conquer " on the continent.
As soon as the external meddling decrease ( because example the USA has other issues) end the countries will looks quite differently, like in the middle east.
And China has / will have next to 0 influence, Russia has marginal influence beyond Poland, USA is the psychopath elephant in the china shop.
Arctic IS the most important.
The average winter temperature increase by 8 Celsius in the past few decades. That is a lot.
A good , Germany sized area in Siberia become permafrost free, makes it possible to grow crops.
In written memories the last few decade has been the first period when the Siberian waterways are ice free during summer.
It is not open all year long, but it is not restricted to 110 foot wide ships,and has unlimited capacity.
Means oil drilling rigs, VLCCs can pass it as well.
OR the whole Russian navy can pass thought of it, without the need to go around the world.
