A New Cold War?

Unlike previous cold war, for the first time, US has openly called for war with China. Instruction has given, Navy commander can give order to open fire to China Navy action , like ramming ship. China weak nuke deterrent invites US conventional war. US simply look down upon China nuke deterrent, they are sure China would not let conventional war escalate. US never did like this during cold war with Soviet. US only used proxy warfares with the Soviet. I think China minimal deterrent policy is an iresponsible policy, it's open invitation for conventional war with biggest hegemon.

Let's be realistic here. China under tremendous pressure, major real estate group like Vanke, WanguiYuan now selling brand new unit in prime locations with 50%, off or buy one and get one for free. Simply there's no buyer now. Real estate is where Chinese putting all their money in. Unlike downtrodden stock, real estate is the real indicator of Chinese economic health.

So no guarantee China economy can surpass US.

More realistic goal and better goal would be self suffient in food (enough self grown soy bean to feed the pigs) and tech.(it trying to invest more in those weak areas yet still letting US tech companies running free inside China. Containing US tech companies inside China is a must do step for self sufficiency)

Or use up the free workforce to start to make new warships/aircrafts.

That pulled out Germany /USA from the great depression in the 30/40s.

Anlsvrthng said:

Or use up the free workforce to start to make new warships/aircrafts.

That pulled out Germany /USA from the great depression in the 30/40s.

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hey hey hey careful about 1930s Germany

actually what a thread is this,
A New Cold War?

Deino said:

Indeed

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please

The other name of the 30s German economical policy is "Keynesian". : P

Anyway, the US already showing signs of the trap to follow the Russian/Chinese military industry.

-Withdrawn of patriots from middle east,
-Getting out from INF treaty
-Unrealistic cost / technical /capability targets for major miltitary projects to keep up with the expected capability of adversaries ,f-35, Ford carrier.
-Overstretching the resources of the navy to the point when the sailors lack the basic seaman skills ( Fitzgerald, McCain) , it is directly connected to the INF treaty withdraw and ME Patriot withdrawn .
-New Seawolf/Yassen like attack submarine cost twice as much as the current Virginias.(planned for 2033)

US needs to increase the military outlays dramatically, maybe to 7/8% of GDP or more to keep up with the changes in China / Russia.

But it will go against the trade frictions, if there is less trade deficit then the USA needs more resources to make things inhouse.

Jura said:

hey hey hey careful about 1930s Germany

actually what a thread is this,
A New Cold War?

please

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What is your problem with the economics policy of the 30s germany ?

And the cold war was about the military spending.

It is already started, US/Russia / China started to spend serious money for the military.

IF there is lack of demand for workforce in any Chinese sector then the military orders can be the way to mop it up.

Like in the USA and Russia. : D

Only the workers can win in that game : )

Anlsvrthng said:

The US has complete and unlimited power around the world to close/open shipping lanes.

Now the USA is scared, because China have / will have full control above one of the most important areas, the South Chinese Sea.

And if that is controller, then Taiwan / Japan has to change strategic posing as well.

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That is not accurate

tidalwave said:

Unlike previous cold war, for the first time, US has openly called for war with China. Instruction has given, Navy commander can give order to open fire to China Navy action , like ramming ship. China weak nuke deterrent invites US conventional war. US simply look down upon China nuke deterrent, they are sure China would not let conventional war escalate. US never did like this during cold war with Soviet. US only used proxy warfares with the Soviet. I think China minimal deterrent policy is an iresponsible policy, it's open invitation for conventional war with biggest hegemon.

Let's be realistic here. China under tremendous pressure, major real estate group like Vanke, WanguiYuan now selling brand new unit in prime locations with 50%, off or buy one and get one for free. Simply there's no buyer now. Real estate is where Chinese putting all their money in. Unlike downtrodden stock, real estate is the real indicator of Chinese economic health.

So no guarantee China economy can surpass US.

More realistic goal and better goal would be self suffient in food (enough self grown soy bean to feed the pigs) and tech.(it trying to invest more in those weak areas yet still letting US tech companies running free inside China. Containing US tech companies inside China is a must do step for self sufficiency)

Click to expand...

That is not accurate. There is no open call for war.

Plus I would recommend that you educate yourself on economics a lot more. Real Estate is just one part of the economy, and the situation regarding technology and food self-sufficiency is a lot more complicated as well.

Anlsvrthng said:

Or use up the free workforce to start to make new warships/aircrafts.

That pulled out Germany /USA from the great depression in the 30/40s.

Click to expand...

The situation is much more complicated than you describe

AndrewS said:

That is not accurate. There is no open call for war.

Plus I would recommend that you educate yourself on economics a lot more. Real Estate is just one part of the economy, and the situation regarding technology and food self-sufficiency is a lot more complicated as well.

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What do you call allowing navy commander on the ship to make decision to open fire, bypassing high command up?
For average Chinese person, what other sector in China economy is bigger than real estate when 80% of their wealth is putting in real estate?

tidalwave said:

Unlike previous cold war, for the first time, US has openly called for war with China. Instruction has given, Navy commander can give order to open fire to China Navy action , like ramming ship. China weak nuke deterrent invites US conventional war. US simply look down upon China nuke deterrent, they are sure China would not let conventional war escalate. US never did like this during cold war with Soviet. US only used proxy warfares with the Soviet. I think China minimal deterrent policy is an iresponsible policy, it's open invitation for conventional war with biggest hegemon.

Let's be realistic here. China under tremendous pressure, major real estate group like Vanke, WanguiYuan now selling brand new unit in prime locations with 50%, off or buy one and get one for free. Simply there's no buyer now. Real estate is where Chinese putting all their money in. Unlike downtrodden stock, real estate is the real indicator of Chinese economic health.

So no guarantee China economy can surpass US.

More realistic goal and better goal would be self suffient in food (enough self grown soy bean to feed the pigs) and tech.(it trying to invest more in those weak areas yet still letting US tech companies running free inside China. Containing US tech companies inside China is a must do step for self sufficiency)

Click to expand...

The real estate market in China is kinda bonkers and has been so for quite several years now. The fact that local governments earn money each time a property is built up means they couldn't care less about building inspections and any habitation buildings typically don't last very long because the constructors want to make as much profit as possible. Then things like condominiums don't operate that well in China, people don't want to fork out for maintenance that is outside of their own houses. After a couple of years staircases and elevators start malfunctioning and no one wants to pony up. Property prices were also outside of the reach of the middle class citizens in China. So I would say this is just a correction.

China's major issues with their nukes are: not enough conversion from antique missile systems to more modern solid missile systems like the DF-41 and the lack of a credible SSBN force. This might make China seem vulnerable on a first strike scenario to some military planners. But I don't see a massive first strike scenario happening to China.

The Cold War right now is happening mostly on the economic sphere with the Belt and Road Initiative and the new USA led initiative to invest in Africa. People today often forget that before the foundation of the Warsaw Pact and NATO there was the creation of COMECON and the Marshall Plan. We also see the Chinese make all these sorts of bilateral yuan deals with several countries the most recent of which was with Japan. This kind of mirrors the creation of the Bretton Woods system in my opinion.

I expect the USA to continue to try to build a containment policy for China economically and militarily by making attempts to unite the countries which surround China. At the same time they are trying to economically compete with the Chinese in Africa. Much like what they did with the Muslim countries, or during the Cold War, they might also try to foment coups against countries with either pro-Russian or pro-Chinese governments. In the Cold War the USA and the USSR competed to carve out ex-European colonial possessions. But today the USA is the hegemonic power. So I expect the USA to lose power in the fringes of its current empire in places like Afghanistan and maybe even in the Middle East in general. This will be due to two reasons IMHO: i) North America will be mostly independent in terms of oil production ii) China is the world's largest oil importer nation. So I think the power balance in the Middle East will eventually swing towards China. Right now the USA attempts to hold on to the region because otherwise it would mean the end of the petrodollar and the start of massive inflation in the USA. But I think they will bankrupt themselves in the process of paying for their hegemonic outreach and will lack the capability to even maintain their current naval power. If that happens then the USA might retrench into its more traditional role of basically dominating the Americas. Venezuela has large petroleum reserves and the USA and Canada have the technology to extract it. So in that context if they want a buffer Venezuela might be more important to them in the long run than the Middle East IMHO.