2026 Iran War Strategy and Analysis

iewgnem said:

Funny how most American jets were shot down after Iran supposedly lost its modern AAs.

Click to expand...

...because american jets weren't shot down by high end AA. They were shot down by some of the most modern lower tier ones (older ones also failed).

Iranian MVPs all in all are small 4x4 systems.

iewgnem said:

And even by that metric, just the single early warning radar Iran took out was probably worth more than all those Iranian "modern AA"

Click to expand...

No, entire Iranian AD (which had dozens if not hundreds large high band AESAs alone - i.e. billions hard earned USD in Chinese TRMs alone) was most certainly more expensive than "single early warning radar". We're talking investment on a scale of dozens of billions, in an impowerished country which seriously had to chose where to put it's money.
Price of these things certainly was barely acceptable - as all Iranian AESA SAMs had PESA doubles(not exactly cheap either), and sometimes even PESAs were doubled with MS options.

Then there's personnel, facilities, etc etc.

iewgnem said:

Also Iranian AA are only expensive when they're not made out of wood or, in some instances, paintings on the ground, lol

Click to expand...

It's honestly slightly dissapointing, when I made a (admittedly somewhat incomplete) Iranian AA guide for this exact forum...

Gloire_bb said:

...because american jets weren't shot down by high end AA. They were shot down by some of the most modern lower tier ones (older ones also failed).

Iranian MVPs all in all are small 4x4 systems.

No, entire Iranian AD (which had dozens if not hundreds large high band AESAs alone - i.e. billions hard earned USD in Chinese TRMs alone) was most certainly more expensive than "single early warning radar". We're talking investment on a scale of dozens of billions, in an impowerished country which seriously had to chose where to put it's money.
Price of these things certainly was barely acceptable - as all Iranian AESA SAMs had PESA doubles(not exactly cheap either), and sometimes even PESAs were doubled with MS options.

Then there's personnel, facilities, etc etc.

It's honestly slightly dissapointing, when I made a (admittedly somewhat incomplete) Iranian AA guide for this exact forum...

Click to expand...

Oh I see, so F-35 was shot down by low end AA, not high end. Where does that leave you? lol

First time I heard Iran not only had hundreds of large AESA, they bought them from China and paid USD no less, oh wait but only in TRMs, so they bought Chinese TRMs, in US dollars, then assembled into theses hundreds of large AESAs, did I get that right?

Did you make an Iranian AA guide for this forum now? Imagine if US lost the war because they got their Iranian AA intel from SDF.

Here's the thing, Iran's AA is called rocks, they have no reason to park any AA out on the surface when the rock above their tunnels has 100% passive interception against any and all incoming, if you think Iran parked AA out in the open, you've already lost.

US-Iran deal redraws the Middle East: Iran gains, rivals alarmed


Regards,

sheogorath said:

Yep, that MoU won't last 60 days.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2067696560415424796

Click to expand...

I think it's clear at this point that the US has had enough but Israel can't stand that the outcome feels like a huge defeat and loss of oppertunity. So Iran should just be clear the US that Israel doesn't have to be in the peace agreement because the US can't control them. So if Israel attacks anyone, it's not a violation to send missiles all over Tel Aviv. They chose to not be apart of the peace so let's see how long they last in war alone. I don't see how the US can refuse that; the peace that America brokered was violated by Israel so Israel alone can face the consequences.

sheogorath said:

Yep, that MoU won't last 60 days.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2067696560415424796

Click to expand...

If Donroe actually has any balls (as if), then perhaps he should consider "accidentally" bombing Israeli military assets just like how Israel "accidentally" bombed USS Liberty back in 1967.

A balancing of power in the middle east is taking place. Each big country has to re-assess it's positions and chips in there.
Russia - It is currently busy with Ukraine, it lost almost all it's influence in the middle east (example Syria) and has a little with Iran. I would say, Iran is the last influence Russia had until they can resolve the Ukraine question
US - US thought they had influence until they hit the hard nail of Iran, I would say the recent US Iran war completely sober up the Americans and they really lost a lot of influence there at the moment. But knowing the old dog of US, they never give up and will come back again
China - China is spreading risk and it's chips around the middle east, not backing 1 side or the other, they back Iran when it needs to be back, or Saudi, or Pakistan. If one side weaken example Iran, or turns around, then the other chips Saudi/Pakistan will be increase. China will always have influence one way or the other
Saudi - Playing their cards quietly, they had recently change of bodyguard from US to the Pakistani.
Turkey - The old empire, still had the ambition, probably will be the new backer of whichever group, Muslim brotherhood. Recent gain in Syria has embolden them and even Lebanon group or Hezbollah may turn to them for support.
Pakistan - Big gains, the recent war with India really turn their fortune around. No more the old man beggars club, they got commissioned to be the new bodyguard of Saudis, more confident in their steps moving forward.
India - Seems to be the biggest loser or part of the loser group at this moment, so far, not one advantage out of the many recent events happening in the middle east. They resort to begging here and begging there. Even in the recent G7 meeting, Trump is no more hugging Modi like he used to be. The Indopacom command now changed back to Pacom, means the Indians getting sideline or found out to be not very useful to the Americans.
US - Another big loser, probably burns 30% of their cards/own national resources by initiating war with Iran and hittng nail with a bloody own toe. Causing their own bases/arrangement in the middle east to be targetted and wiped and breaking so many of their clientele trusts (Qatar/UAE, Saudi, Kuwait...etc) in the middle east and trusting the one conman Israel
Israel - I would say big winner so far. Even reputation/world condemnation, this mean nothing to them. The real control of the brain still the AIPAC/donor class in the US, they still control the country where it does matter at the moment. US. They still holding the land they gain from indisriminate AI bombing and killings. Just a few words of mouth condemning does not matter as long the land control gain is still there. Unless they lost those recent gain land, I would say Israel is a winner.
Iran- Iran oh Iran....schizo, they have 2 side, trying to appease the west and the other side. Split personality. I would not say, gain or lost....what they gain is also what they lost. They already lost their leaders and of course still there are hardliners, the appeasers still there, the traitors within still there. They fear they lost the influence of the other militant group like Houthis, Hezbollahs in Lebanon and others. These group may turn to other backers like Turkey, Saudi if they find their interest sold out by the appeasers in Iran to make that nonsense deal.

This is not end of the story for the middle east. There is Round 2 or Round 3 coming in.....everyone is now plotting and I'm sure the old dog Americans planning as well their next step. In Geopolitic unfortunately...you always look at the big picture to have clarify. Look at the big map from high above....all recent consideration, deals, ceasefire or whatever nonsense are just temporary...the wheels of geopolitic always move and push you into 1 direction. There is no permanent friends or enemies.......but permanent interests.......remember this lesson well to survive

iewgnem said:

Oh I see, so F-35 was shot down by low end AA, not high end. Where does that leave you? lol

Click to expand...

It leaves me reading Iranian sources and watching particular engagement clip, I presume.
System claimed was Majid-08, visuals matched the engagement.

iewgnem said:

First time I heard Iran not only had hundreds of large AESA, they bought them from China and paid USD no less, oh wait but only in TRMs, so they bought Chinese TRMs, in US dollars, then assembled into theses hundreds of large AESAs, did I get that right?

Click to expand...

It's a sorry sight you're trying to flail with complete lack of knowledge of Iranian AD development over last years.

Yes, Iran produced dozens/hundreds AESA sets across multiple families of its modern SAMs (Bavar, Arman, Zoubin, and some others without known name). Majid search radar, btw, is AESA too.

Yes, beyond the West only China produces commercial TRMs available for Iran (Russian ones likely aren't for sale really, and in any case they would be more expensive). Chance Iran manufacturers its own TRMs, let's be frank, are very low.

One fire control S band TRM will cost you several hundred bucks each, X band can be up to 8-10k each.
S band vol search radar will use several thousand, X band fire control - even for SHORAD will take at least high hundreds; multirole X band radars will also take thousands of X band ones.

Now please do some simple some math, and add that's just TRMs alone - while they're the major cost, there's also rest of the radar and SAM system, and it isn't free of charge.

300 B and can't even get Iran to sell their uranium. Only to start negotiation. Fart of the Deal.

another505 said:

300 B and can't even get Iran to sell their uranium. Only to start negotiation. Fart of the Deal.

Click to expand...

As stated earlier, Iran is unlikely to abandon its nuclear capability under any agreement.

It’s difficult to understand why some people continue to insist or hope that Iran will give up this capability, or that external pressure alone could prevent it.

Looks like the "peaceniks" of the Iranian side don't have the balls and seems to be more desperate. The Israelis IDF has more guts at the moment and keep poking and poking and poking by attacking Lebanon. It's a psychological game, and it shows the Iranians are more desperate for a deal and seems ready to abandon their allies Hezbollah in Lebanon. Look at so many excuses, the Iranian negotiators gave to the Americans, using verbal this or that, just words. I mean, both the Americans and Iranians are tired and only the Israelis stand firm on the ground of their objectives. If I were the IRGC commanders and hardliners, I would have press the missiles buttons and firing 500 drones, 10 ballistics missiles at Israelis cities already by now. I would tell the Qataris, UAE and Jordanians buggers, that don't retaliate and don't interfere. The attack is not aim at them, DO NOT INTERFERE and fires away at Israel blasting their power stations, depot, ports, radar, water treatment plants and so on. You talk nonsense, warning, that American must promise on their deals, whatever, basically showing you are WEAK!!! And you just believe the nonsense words out of the mouth. You fire ballistic and make sure the Israelis pay a price for the recalcitrant and intransigence. It's also a test on the Americans, playing this good cop, bad cop nonsense and see their action, do they step in to save the Israelis. Watch their action.......really disappointed with the Iranians, not sure who is the one leading the negotiation nonsense of a deal.