2026 Iran War Strategy and Analysis

protonme18

Junior Member
Registered Member
Do we know how many flights Chinese Y-20 flew to Iran so far during this ceasefire?
China can jammed any radar detector from bottom, over the horizon or even coming from top, pin point which source or detector waves are coming from and make them see nothing. Much better then stealth shaping. They are like "ghosts" planes landing and taking off only when they allowed to let them detect and notifying the Iranian control tower. China anti jamming, radar tech, image tech I believe at least 1 generation ahead the current US system, being their model and abundance use of rare earth or new materials design. A lot of military tech nowadays, incorporate AI into their computer modelling and computation with quantum computation. Official news release for media show, China delivering medical equipment, aides.....1 or 2 official flight on record book out of 7 planes, only 2 is official recorded in log book for journalists, media announce and foreign relation works. Who has capability to know what is the truth. Nobody, even US struggling to know what more those 2nd or 3rd rate military country.
 

protonme18

Junior Member
Registered Member
The situation is kind of strange where US and Iran attack ships under ceasefire. If the fighting resumes it would be interesting to see if US destroyes can handle the drone swarms comming at them when being so close. Maybe Iran have some AShM left too.
US Palantir AI system has an "unknown" variable input into their deliberations, the "unknown" it can't be sure what support Iran has from Russia or China, what's available capability the Iranians has, no sufficient intel so it cannot conclude with definitive yet what action to take, so far, the current status quo best fit for US under situation....it's the least of the bad options for now. Anyone, Iranians better be prepared and all the targeting and what to target should be ready. I read there is already instructions those regional commanders to plan out the contingency of US/Israel sudden attack. I suspect, this time a small incursion of ground troops will happen with US air support.
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
It's a simple matter of you either disable the engines or you seize the ship, because there's no towing it out of there, there's no repairing at sea and there's no inspecting cargo while at sea

What's on video shows they attempted at seizing the ship and them targeting the engine room, you're going to have to square a circle to try to explain why they'd try to disable the ship if they had the ability to seize it, as opposed to the far more plausible explanation that they tried to seize it, failed, then targeted the engine room.

There are two obvious reasons for this contradictory approach.

The first is that this is a hatched job designed to frame China for supplying arms to Iran as a means of poisoning relations and trust between China and the other Gulf States as a desperate last ditch effort by the Americans to undo the turning of the tide and the beginning of the end of the petrodollar.

If they captured the ship, then they need to take it somewhere eventually, where the world’s media would expect to see hard, irrefutable evidence laid out for them. But if the ship’s engines are dead and it’s stuck in the middle of a war zone, all the world will get for the foreseeable future are whatever footage the American military release. Which would be hard for China to conclusively disprove. Think about it, this is an Iranian flagged ship under US sanctions. The USN could have intercepted and boarded her at any point after it left Chinese territorial waters but they only moved on it 50km from Iran’s coast?

Second, it’s a proof of concept and testing the waters of the application of domestic US shoot-first-ask-questions-later approach to law enforcement.

Rather than waste time boarding and seizing suspected blockade runners which the USN doesn’t have the numbers to do, the USN means to just shoot them, disable engines and sort it all out later, maybe.

Such a move, if applied deliberately for effect, will also leave a large number of drifting ships in the area, which could be used as cover for USN ships if they really do mean to do their amphibious assault of an Iranian island long winded suicide mission.
 

ohan_qwe

Junior Member
Would be clearly worry about torpedo makeshift launchers on cargo ships being intercepted... Iran have an history of cargo ships modifications. Or just detonating one full of fertilizer.
Risky move as it gives US justification to sink all Iranian ships with Aircraft carrier fighter launching missiles.
 

iewgnem

Captain
Registered Member
There are two obvious reasons for this contradictory approach.

The first is that this is a hatched job designed to frame China for supplying arms to Iran as a means of poisoning relations and trust between China and the other Gulf States as a desperate last ditch effort by the Americans to undo the turning of the tide and the beginning of the end of the petrodollar.

If they captured the ship, then they need to take it somewhere eventually, where the world’s media would expect to see hard, irrefutable evidence laid out for them. But if the ship’s engines are dead and it’s stuck in the middle of a war zone, all the world will get for the foreseeable future are whatever footage the American military release. Which would be hard for China to conclusively disprove. Think about it, this is an Iranian flagged ship under US sanctions. The USN could have intercepted and boarded her at any point after it left Chinese territorial waters but they only moved on it 50km from Iran’s coast?

Second, it’s a proof of concept and testing the waters of the application of domestic US shoot-first-ask-questions-later approach to law enforcement.

Rather than waste time boarding and seizing suspected blockade runners which the USN doesn’t have the numbers to do, the USN means to just shoot them, disable engines and sort it all out later, maybe.

Such a move, if applied deliberately for effect, will also leave a large number of drifting ships in the area, which could be used as cover for USN ships if they really do mean to do their amphibious assault of an Iranian island long winded suicide mission.
They just boarded a stateless ship in the Indian Ocean without need to invent any elaborate plan that requires shooting at the engines.
Which just goes to show exactly what happened with the Iranian ship.
 

protonme18

Junior Member
Registered Member
What's the reasons US & Israel attack Iran again?

I read US are re-organizing, repositioning their Thaad, patriot batteries, radars and avoid clustering them together. I guess the Iranians war strategy might change a little how to tackle this situation. Taking these out probably requires mixture of drones, cruise missiles and a couple of ballistic missiles. Similar situation in Israel, they are restocking their Iron dome missiles. I believe AI Nentayahu and his handlers will trigger an attack soon, background IDF/Pentagon already in preparation with Palantir AI busy churning out the recommendations. Also good excuse for that AI man not to appear yet in a public hearing....his been avoiding that for months now despite all the fake news/media you been hearing this guy appear . How can AI appear (remembers Sun Tzu). They still have not time to stage that, probably the public list, attendees, journalist lists not finalized in the know to set this stage.

All warfare is based on deception" (兵者,詭道也) is a foundational principle from Sun Tzu’s
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, signifying that victory is achieved by manipulating the enemy's perception. It means misleading opponents regarding capabilities, intentions, and position to create advantages, such as appearing weak when strong, or near when far.

The deception in a very big stage, the world itself...how to convince the world AI man is alive ;)
 

GZDRefugee

Senior Member
Registered Member
USS Cole got wrecked by a C4-ladden dingy. The USN simulation which they kept losing involved precisely this. These are probably a bigger threat to USN than the missiles and drones.
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The Millennium Challenge is a poor example of both US and Iranian capabilities when you actually read deeper into what happened.
 
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