2026 Iran War Strategy and Analysis

Blitzo said:

Both of your positions basically come from a view that Trump recognizes the US is on the ropes for XYZ reason and is more willing toake concessions.

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Yes, because he started out saying he'd get total surrender and now he's tweeting every day about making a deal. Of course he adds bullshit about why Iran must make the deal to save themselves, but in the real world, people who aren't desperate don't keep talking about a deal. Iran wasn't.

Blitzo said:

I think that's somewhat optimistic, and it is more likely imo that:
- Trump's team was incompetent and saw what they wanted to see in the agreement

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What does that mean? If the document says, "All ships passing the Strait of Hormuz must register with Iran and pay a $2M USD equivalent toll in Chinese Yuan," how do they see what they want to see? The translation must be F'ed up or they're so desperate they're reading things, lipping, "No, didn't see that part, that doesn't count, gonna pretend I didn't read that, skip to the next part" etc...

Blitzo said:

Or
- Trump's team think they have the ability to pressure Iran into backing off most of their points during negotiations

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I'm thinking it's this. They just want more time to make threats and get ready for another round. They're also likely willing to concede some stuff.

Blitzo said:

I.e. Trump believes that the US is still in a position of strength.

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Why? Because he told everyone? He's not going to tell people the US is in trouble due to his decisions even if Iran is storming the White House and he's in the basement getting ready to follow the Fuehrer. Read in between the lines! The dude is angry off the rails threatening to end Iranian civilization all the time not because he's hearing success stories! Saying, "You crazy bastard, open the Strait," is not how a person who feels like he's winning would word things! Iran has stressed him so badly, he at least briefly converted to Islam while posting! He knows his options suck against Iran and are getting to be impossible against China.

I foresee the HQ operation point for IDF/US will further set afar, means, they tried to setup it out of range for the missile reach (I mean operating from Hotels, Residential areas really a hassle as not all equipments in place). Some of the US Awacs like the E3 sentry being repurpose/reconfigured the comms to be battle ready and will sit further away from strike reach. Diego garcia will be more heavily used this round, the third carrier USS George HW Bush will play a more more prominent in the next battle round, so that's a target worth watching currently at the Mediterranean sea. More anti-ships missile to be transported to the Hezbollah at the north. Air field space and ground watches for the Kurds entry. The Jordanian airspace and also south Pakistani/Indian airspace. The Chinese ships will still be around and probably the second entry Type055 can be rotated in and another 1 or 2 052D force posture readiness sent to the Indian Ocean. The 50+ region commander zones probably need a replenishment of their missiles and drones stock as well. Now the satellites will be very busy....all troops movement, equipments, placements....especially the Chinese commercial satellites services will give hints where the next round will come

Blitzo said:

Both of your positions basically come from a view that Trump recognizes the US is on the ropes for XYZ reason and is more willing toake concessions.

I think that's somewhat optimistic, and it is more likely imo that:
- Trump's team was incompetent and saw what they wanted to see in the agreement
Or
- Trump's team think they have the ability to pressure Iran into backing off most of their points during negotiations


I.e. Trump believes that the US is still in a position of strength.

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Ok, so what you're saying is:

1. The US is not in a position of strength currently vis-a-vis Iran in this war?

2. But Trump, or his team thinks that the US is in fact in a position of strength?

3. But Trump, and his team is also so incompetent, that they have somehow agreed, or inadvertently giving an impression of agreeing to a ceasefire and negotiate on the basis of Iran's 10 points, which the world were been made known by Western media as "maximalist".?

doggydogdo said:

I was just wondering if you guys think if it's likely for China to station a few SAM batteries or J-10Cs with an AWAC, in Iran to deter further aggression from Israel and US? This is the largest oil crisis yet and if not resolved it might cause a massive economic crisis which would be awful for China as well.

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Round three.

The Second Korean War never happened.

Round three here is a certainty in my mind.

But it will not happen in two weeks.

---

This why this war was so fascinating.

How I thought of it, and I am just a shit poster anonymously ranting on the internet, and how Iran was fighting it, I found to be unbelievable. Forget about the Americans, who were even more unbelievable.

I kept complaining that Iran was not doing enough, not up to their potential, not doing it right, should have went after those pissant little states harder, and wiped them out completely. Hit Israel even harder. Now this war is over.

I believe in Chairman Mao, quotations, "The Americans are unreasonable, give them no choice then they are reasonable."

They were running low on interceptor missiles, that means they could not continue. They had no choice in this stage of the game. So they turned reasonable, just like that.

Blitzo said:

How do you know they have agreed on the same 10 points lol.

Knowing Trump, what he thinks he's agreed with and what the other party thinks they've agreed with may well be different.

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This is a Korea frozen conflict if there ever was one.

The difference is there has been peace on the Korean Peninsula for over 50 years.

This is an entirely different neighbourhood, so we stop for now, and wait.

That's da hood!

manqiangrexue said:

Yes, because he started out saying he'd get total surrender and now he's tweeting every day about making a deal. Of course he adds bullshit about why Iran must make the deal to save themselves, but in the real world, people who aren't desperate don't keep talking about a deal. Iran wasn't.

What does that mean? If the document says, "All ships passing the Strait of Hormuz must register with Iran and pay a $2M USD equivalent toll in Chinese Yuan," how do they see what they want to see? The translation must be F'ed up or they're so desperate they're reading things, lipping, "No, didn't see that part, that doesn't count, gonna pretend I didn't read that, skip to the next part" etc...

I'm thinking it's this. They just want more time to make threats and get ready for another round. They're also likely willing to concede some stuff.

Why? Because he told everyone? He's not going to tell people the US is in trouble due to his decisions even if Iran is storming the White House and he's in the basement getting ready to follow the Fuehrer. Read in between the lines! The dude is angry off the rails threatening to end Iranian civilization all the time not because he's hearing success stories! Saying, "You crazy bastard, open the Strait," is not how a person who feels like he's winning would word things! Iran has stressed him so badly, he at least briefly converted to Islam while posting! He knows his options suck against Iran and are getting to be impossible against China.

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Trump bluster is Trump bluster.
Most of the time we don't know if he's making a threat, making a joke, or sleep deprived, or just woken up.

What we do know is that he believes himself and America are all powerful, and would not knowingly trade away all of the key interests that America has used decades of middle east policy in pursuit of.

So either he incompetently agreed to something without full realization of what he agreed to, or he expects Iran to overwhelmingly back down from their demands.


Either way, there should be a high threshold of suspicion that Trump will end up feeling "betrayed" by Iran in coming days or weeks leading to return of conflict.

Shaolian said:

Ok, so what you're saying is:

1. The US is not in a position of strength currently vis-a-vis Iran in this war?

2. But Trump, or his team thinks that the US is in fact in a position of strength?

3. But Trump, and his team is also so incompetent, that they have somehow agreed, or inadvertently giving an impression of agreeing to a ceasefire and negotiate on the basis of Iran's 10 points, which the world were been made known by Western media as "maximalist".?

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1. I don't know if the US is in a position of strength or not in this war

2. Yes, I think Trump and his team believe they are in a position of strength

3. I think they allowed Iran to get their message in first without knowing what their own messages was (reflecting incompetence), or they agreed to something without first carefully understanding the consequences of what they were agreeing to (also reflecting incompetence)

mack8 said:

On the issue of nuclear weapons, a question to knowledgeable folks, is it possible to build a deliverable nuclear or especially thermonuclear device with 60% HEU? As i said elsewhere, if there is any lull in the fighting (but i very much doubt it) Iran should go for the bomb to create a measure of MAD that would make the american/'israeli' regimes think twice about resuming attacks. Pataramesh seems to suggest it's possible, but i'm curious of further confirmation.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1928787869847429264

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Theodore Postol thinks it's very possible for Iran to enrich that 60% to 90% in underground tunnels and then put together 10 gun type nuclear bombs similar to the Little Boy dropped on Japan, His scenario involves dropping 3 of them on the 3 most populous cities of Israel to cause the most amount of deaths, and they would still have 7 left, if we go by the several hundred kilograms of enriched uranium figure that was/is being thrown around. This is if US or Israel drops a nuke on Iran. I think this is why Trump was so desperate to get the enriched uranium out, so they could strike Iran with no impunity, and why he was thrown into a fit of rage when the whole operation went south. And why he's asking for a ceasefire now.

PandaAI said:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2041683813911453935

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I do not see what is so nuts about it when we all know it is going to work.

This is what happened this Easter weekend. Trump claimed that the USA is winning, which Americans automatically believes. Trump threatened Iran with fuckin' civilization annihilation. There was a daring rescue attempt with a 3-hour fire-fight included. Then suddenly there was a ceasefire.

Trump, despite the screw-ups, will come out of this war not looking to badly. Because no one will remember anything about this rather short war other than Easter weekend.

Regarding the Mackinder world island theory, and its competing theory of who controls roughly those seven choke points, the Americans who voted for Biden, and the Americans who voted for Trump, 95% of them have no idea about that and are not interested. Haha! Haha!

I even wrote a couple of posts on those ideas of the choke points, and those posts got deleted! So I know, no cares about such stuff. That is how the world is today.

Blitzo said:

Considering how absurd Iran's 10 points are, at the very least there should be no expectation that the US was or is willing to consider them a realistic basis for peace.

Either Trump didn't know what he actually agreed to as basis for the ceasefire --- or most charitably, is that Trump expects to have Iran significantly walk back many/most of their points for a long lasting peace.

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If the US isn't pursuing another adventure, it is probably aiming to return to the pre-war status quo: sanctions + open Strait. The closure of the Strait is hurting US + allies. Signing on to the ceasefire, regardless of what it contains, is just the off-ramp to ease the situation. Once the heat of fighting subsides, US will enact new sanctions or continue the old ones, thereby breaking the conditions of the agreement.

These are the only two scenarios I can see and I wager the first (another adventure).

Shaolian said:

But even the act of feigning agreement to use that 10 points would mean a massive admission of US inadequacies in its war with Iran. Although at this point, this might be the least of the US worries.

Also, where is the source that says the US and Iran are using Iran's 10-points as a basis for negotiations during these 2-week ceasefire? I know statements from US and Iran are giving different versions of the 10-points, but where did we get the idea that it is based on Iran's theoretical 10-point list?

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I don't think the 10 or 15 point demands of either side are involved in this agreement. Rather, it is just a simple if/then temporary agreement involving only two factors: 1) attacks against US and Iran cease, and; 2) Strait of Hormuz reopens. After two weeks, fighting may resume or they may negotiate again on the actual demands required by each side to implement a permanent peace treaty.

Blitzo said:

So, again, we need to ask -- what on earth does Trump think he actually agreed to???

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Comrade mod, since we know you're not in North America, I wonder how much do you know about dear leader here?

He is kind of funny.

The stories from mainstream media, alleges President Trump does not read the intel briefings provided to him. He gets bored.

Seeing that, the White House staff would present the briefings verbally, but the president was not receptive to that, so that stopped.

So the White House staff, reduced those briefings about the world, such stuff that dear leader should be aware about, so dear leader would read that single page, but in a couple of days did not read that one page briefing anymore.

As time went on, dear leader would basically receive all his information about the world by watching Fox News. That was all President Trump did, watch Faux News for his intel.

It got so bad, that the yes men were plotting to plant news stories or people in a Faux News broadcast in order to reach the president.

So when the thread is speculating on how Trump is considering the 10 point plan, that is really neither here nor there.

All that matters is the war is over.