Trump has "Total and complete victory." and the negotiators will be careful to not disabuse him of that victory as they work towards an acceptable agreement before his meeting with Xi next month.
2026 Iran War Strategy and Analysis
- Thread starter plawolf
- Start date
Most likely he agreed to Iran's 10 points without the intent of honoring it. Instead, I think US will try another absurd mission into Iran, possibly an invasion.
Considering how absurd Iran's 10 points are, at the very least there should be no expectation that the US was or is willing to consider them a realistic basis for peace.
Either Trump didn't know what he actually agreed to as basis for the ceasefire --- or most charitably, is that Trump expects to have Iran significantly walk back many/most of their points for a long lasting peace.
But even the act of feigning agreement to use that 10 points would mean a massive admission of US inadequacies in its war with Iran. Although at this point, this might be the least of the US worries.
Also, where is the source that says the US and Iran are using Iran's 10-points as a basis for negotiations during these 2-week ceasefire? I know statements from US and Iran are giving different versions of the 10-points, but where did we get the idea that it is based on Iran's theoretical 10-point list?
On the issue of nuclear weapons, a question to knowledgeable folks, is it possible to build a deliverable nuclear or especially thermonuclear device with 60% HEU? As i said elsewhere, if there is any lull in the fighting (but i very much doubt it) Iran should go for the bomb to create a measure of MAD that would make the american/'israeli' regimes think twice about resuming attacks. Pataramesh seems to suggest it's possible, but i'm curious of further confirmation.
It immediately stands out that Iran basically ignored him for the last few days and made it clear there was no contact after those diabolical outbursts.
The last actual framework the Iranians seem to have left on the table, through Pakistan, was that 10 point plan.
So it might be simply that, Trump, as the side more desperate for some kind of ceasefire or negotiations, is willing to use that as the basis for talks, simply because he has no other choice.
He was under massive domestic pressure after those threats, including people openly talking about the 25th Amendment.
He may have simply realized there is no clean way out.
The Iranians were not intimidated by his threats, he cannot realistically use nuclear weapons, and more conventional escalation would likely just make everything worse for him.
Now we will see whether they actually reach a real understanding, and whether Trump wanted only a temporary pause to buy time, or whether he is genuinely ready to end the war.
But I would not call Iranian demands any more “absurd” than the American 15 point demands from before. If anything, the opposite is true.
And if we assume both sides began from their own maximalist positions, then it is pretty obvious which side holds more leverage.
Because it is not Iran making noises about opening negotiations on the basis of an American 15 point plan.
manqiangrexue
Brigadier
They are only absurd in that they will be forcing an already extremely flustered Superpower into the public humiliation of admitting that it fought this war to suffer a total defeat, leaving Iran on stronger terms than before the war. The points themselves are not absurd at all; they are Iran's basic rights.
The good thing is that Trump has no shame and can actually accept a total defeat and tell his imbecile MAGA that it is a victory!
"We have totally won over Iran by opening the Strait of Hormuz and forcing them to accept a measly $2M per ship rather than the $200M toll they originally wanted! They said $200M; I said I'll tariff you 200% and bomb you back to the stone age, and they said, Mr. President, let's negotiate, would $2M be ok? And I said yes, so it's $2M now. We also made them promise not to attack us with their new nuclear weapons, which they wouldn't promise before wth Biden or Obama, who started this war 47 years ago. And today, it ends in total victory for us, but the democrats will tell you the opposite. But they're lying. With me as your president, we won."
I say the latter is much more likely and Iran had better be taking this time, perhaps with China's help, since China supposedly convinced Iran to accept the ceasefire, to far out-prepare and better use this time than American and Israeli forces can. Iran must become a nuclear power or innocent blood will never cease to flow in the middle-east.
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I think this is the most likely scenario
Over the past weeks we have seen Trump becoming more and more desperate to declare victory as the war turns into a quagmire.
Iran (and ever other country in the world) knows that Trump is untrustworthy and will not honour any deal.
But Iran can usefully use a 2 week ceasefire to regroup, rearm and prepare for a long war of attrition.
Both of your positions basically come from a view that Trump recognizes the US is on the ropes for XYZ reason and is more willing toake concessions.
I think that's somewhat optimistic, and it is more likely imo that:
- Trump's team was incompetent and saw what they wanted to see in the agreement
Or
- Trump's team think they have the ability to pressure Iran into backing off most of their points during negotiations
I.e. Trump believes that the US is still in a position of strength.
If you look at the trackers, supplies are coming in fast and IDF restocking their interceptors, the "ceasefire" gives a window of opportunity to do delivery unhindered and from threats of being fired upon or attacked. Already Pentagon/IDF rushing in the supplies. Some manpower arrangement is also ongoing. I would advice the IRGC does the same, produce more drones and ballistic/delivery platform in preparation for the next round. Maintain constant alert and decentralized commanding system in place. Beef up the northern and southern flank. The more quiet the place, the more that place will be the entry point. Look at the Kursk incursion lessons. Hand more shoulder pad rockets launchers (sweep the launchers ID from bugs or trackers, get the Chinese version) for close ground to air combat intensity later. Prepare the counter attack similar with how Khomeini senior was killed...the counter attack came within 1~2 hours. That plan has to be prep up. Means, when US/Israel relaunch the air striker or incursion, the counter strike plan is immediate activated. Means all the targets are pre-selected already (monitor the heaviest airfield, radar being reinstalled, troop assembly points, new HQ setup) All these requires constant intel/surveillance when the deal breaks.....all hell break loose immediately. Don't sit on the laurels thinking ceasefire or whatever works. Prepare for the very worst case senarios where Khomeini Jnr is wipe out this 3rd round of betrayals. The Gen Z IRGC commanders name their 2nd, 3rd and 4th successors already, in case the current commander wiped out. The 2nd and 3rd commander can execute the counter attack plan. Just put the betrayal chances at 90% and 10% slim chance the ceasefire hold. A leopard doesn't change it's stripe easily......