2026 Iran War Strategy and Analysis

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
Isn't the more prudent assumption, to first wait and see if both sides are actually explicitly able to agree on what the terms of the 10 points are first?

Ultimately it doesn't matter whether the agreement in reality is closer to Iran's 10 points or America's 15 points -- the key issue is what the actual ceasefire terms that each side believes they agreed to are, and if that ends up different to what the other party believes, then a resumption of hostilities (or at least, further frantic negotiations) are likely to happen.
Yeah, it's best to wait and yeah, if they didn't actually agree on the same 10 points, they're going to be fighting again very soon. But the question here is, right now, do the US and Iran have an understanding? That seems to be yes and that can only be yes if they signed the same paper with the same 10 points... to begin negotiations with. So the question is where might discrepencies show up? @Serb says its possible that Trump's team wasn't honest with him in order to let him down gently that they're giving in to Iran. Maybe, but I think that the most likely origin of the discrepencies we are seeing from reporting are from Trump telling the public whatever makes him look good instead of what's most truthful. That's basically guaranteed.
 

Serb

Senior Member
Registered Member
Isn't the more prudent assumption, to first wait and see if both sides are actually explicitly able to agree on what the terms of the 10 points are first?

Ultimately it doesn't matter whether the agreement in reality is closer to Iran's 10 points or America's 15 points -- the key issue is what the actual ceasefire terms that each side believes they agreed to are, and if that ends up different to what the other party believes, then a resumption of hostilities (or at least, further frantic negotiations) are likely to happen.

You are right, however, instead of waiting for some formalization of terms,

We should be looking at actions only. As Trump is not a normal president,

And says 8 lies to 2 truths to save face. The next few days will be crucial.

He will never sign a broad agreement that might be perceived negatively.

But he might cave in on individual aspects of it gradually over time (if real).
 

Blitzo

General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Registered Member
I think the Hormuz thing is "stable enough". The dispute left should be Iran says only tankers they accept will go through while Trump thinks all tankers will go through. Trump on TruthSocial already says Iran should reconstruct, which suggests he accepts the Hormuz toll, and Iran has shown flexibility for countries like Spain, that and the lag in production until it picks up suggests that tanker disputes would probably be not be the breaking point during these immediate two weeks.

The most like cause for breakdown will be Israel, neither Trump nor Iran seems to have mentioned them.

I would like to see Trump, or a senior member of his cabinet, to explicitly acknowledge and agree to adhere to the 10 points of the terms that Iran laid out.

Instead of reading tea leaves about what they "might" believe, let's actually wait to see what the US government is explicitly willing to abide by.



Yeah, it's best to wait and yeah, if they didn't actually agree on the same 10 points, they're going to be fighting again very soon. But the question here is, right now, do the US and Iran have an understanding? That seems to be yes and that can only be yes if they signed the same paper with the same 10 points... to begin negotiations with. So the question is where might discrepencies show up? @Serb says its possible that Trump's team wasn't honest with him in order to let him down gently that they're giving in to Iran. Maybe, but I think that the most likely origin of the discrepencies we are seeing from reporting are from Trump telling the public whatever makes him look good instead of what's most truthful. That's basically guaranteed.

I think the bolded part contradicts the rest of your post.

The only correct position to take right now is to wait and see if this thing falls apart due to miscommunication and misunderstanding.
Already there are contradictory noises as to whether Iran will have the ability to impose tolls on the Strait of Hormuz and their ability to retain enrichment capability.

There is no basis for us to try to eke out a "it seems like they have an understanding because if they signed the same paper with the same 10 points" --- instead the baseline assumption should be "let's see if they can prove that they agreed to the same terms to begin with".


You are right, however, instead of waiting for some formalization of terms,

We should be looking at actions only. As Trump is not a normal president,

And says 8 lies to 2 truths to save face. The next few days will be crucial.

He will never sign a broad agreement that might be perceived negatively.

But he might cave in on individual aspects of it gradually over time (if real).

We do not necessarily need to await "formalization of terms" -- we just need to know if Trump and his government has agreed to the same terms as Iran has.

For the commentariat and observers, it means people probably stop crowing at the idea that Trump has "TACO'd" and maybe just be quiet and watch silently for a week or so before declaring this ceasefire as if it reflects any sort of outcome.
 

RobertC

Junior Member
Registered Member
An unanticipated outcome of this war could be a shift to a more secular government with less religious leadership involvement. Apparently Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei was seriously injured when the rest of his family was killed in a USrael missile strike. All we are seeing is written statements with no public presence. In the interim the elected government and IRGC have been running things and everyone seems to be enjoying it. If (when) negotiations ending this war are successful, a return to the previous less secular government may not occur.
 

protonme18

Junior Member
Registered Member
My understanding is Vice President JD Vance will lead the negotiations. If the negotiations do move forward in a positive manner, I expect Vance will send Trump's chosen negotiators, Witkoff and Kushner, back home and bring in his own team. This is Vance's opportunity to strike at the king and I'm pretty sure he's going to take it. Trump is a tired old man with many people and organizations tired of him. The Iranians know this (they already said Vance was acceptable) and will adjust as best they can to ensure Vance is President if (when) negotiations are successful.
There's one spotlight permitted in US political circumstances....and that spotlight is TRUMP....not Vance, Not Hegseth....but TRUMP and TRUMP Alone. His overt narcissistic clinical symptoms means everything must be about him and him alone. No taking away of the spotlight. Inside Trump's heart, already the jealousy and envy is building up if Vance took that away from him. He already didn't attend the recent CPAC, and he has seen Vance poll numbers overtake him, this is not good sign at all. "Liddle" Macro Rubio is favorite of the current establishment and first choice for the old neocons group but not Vance. Vance need to watch his back, already his two guys Tutsi and Kent(former Counter Terror head already resigned) and is in trouble.
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
I would like to see Trump, or a senior member of his cabinet, to explicitly acknowledge and agree to adhere to the 10 points of the terms that Iran laid out.
If those terms are favorable to Iran, you won't get that. This administration does not believe that it owes the American people an ounce of honesty. They may hold Iran's 10 points to keep the peace but tell Americans that Iran accepted America's 15 points to gain popularity at home.
Instead of reading tea leaves about what they "might" believe, let's actually wait to see what the US government is explicitly willing to abide by.
We're making do with what we have, right? Otherwise the entire practice of China military-watching as well as following the development of global events can be summed up with "wait and see."
I think the bolded part contradicts the rest of your post.
It does not. "It's best to wait and see" is because hindsight is always better than foresight, but it doesn't mean foresight is pointless. That "They'll be back to fighting if they didn't agree to the same things" is downstream from whether they agreed to the same things, which is the crux of the conversation.
The only correct position to take right now is to wait and see if this thing falls apart due to miscommunication and misunderstanding.
I doubt there's miscommunication as that would mean that someone took 10 points issued by Iran, edited them into something else, then handed them to the US. However, this thing can fall apart for several other reasons, primarily from America's habit of sneaking attacks negotiations, but also for other reasons like Israeli meddling or USA/Israel seeing Iran use this time too well to reprepare for conflict.
Already there are contradictory noises as to whether Iran will have the ability to impose tolls on the Strait of Hormuz and their ability to retain enrichment capability.
I think those stem from differences between honest reporting and reporting that wants to make the US look better.
There is no basis for us to try to eke out a "it seems like they have an understanding because if they signed the same paper with the same 10 points" --- instead the baseline assumption should be "let's see if they can prove that they agreed to the same terms to begin with".
The baseline is that the US and Iran agreed to a 2 week ceasefire because they agreed to 10 terms.

In summary,
1. It would be very strange for 10 points to morph into 10 different points going from Iran to the US.
2. Why are there conflicts in media as to the specific arrangement? I think those stem from differences between honest reporting and reporting that wants to make the US look better.
3. "let's see if they can prove that they agreed to the same terms to begin with" If they go back to war, it wouldn't prove that there was a misunderstanding as to what the 10 points are because a) America has a habit of sneaking attacks during negotiations, b) Israel could meddle with false flags or by breaking the ceasefire and dragging the US into conflict again, c) USA/Israel seeing Iran use this time too well to reprepare for conflict, d) other reasons stemming from distrust and lack of honor.
 
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Blitzo

General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Registered Member
If those terms are favorable to Iran, you won't get that. This administration does not believe that it owes the American people an ounce of honesty. They may hold Iran's 10 points to keep the peace but tell Americans that Iran accepted America's 15 points to gain popularity at home.

We're making do with what we have, right? Otherwise the entire practice of China military-watching as well as following the development of global events can be summed up with "wait and see."

It does not. "It's best to wait and see" is because hindsight is always better than foresight, but it doesn't mean foresight is pointless. That "They'll be back to fighting if they didn't agree to the same things" is downstream from whether they agreed to the same things, which is the crux of the conversation.

I doubt there's miscommunication as that would mean that someone took 10 points issued by Iran, edited them into something else, then handed them to the US. However, this thing can fall apart for several other reasons, primarily from America's habit of sneaking attacks negotiations, but also for other reasons like Israeli meddling or USA/Israel seeing Iran use this time too well to reprepare for conflict.

I think those stem from differences between honest reporting and reporting that wants to make the US look better.

The baseline is that the US and Iran agreed to a 2 week ceasefire because they agreed to 10 terms.

In summary,
1. It would be very strange for 10 points to morph into 10 different points going from Iran to the US.
2. Why are there conflicts in media as to the specific arrangement? I think those stem from differences between honest reporting and reporting that wants to make the US look better.
3. "let's see if they can prove that they agreed to the same terms to begin with" If they go back to war, it wouldn't prove that there was a misunderstanding as to what the 10 points are because a) America has a habit of sneaking attacks during negotiations, b) Israel could meddle with false flags or by breaking the ceasefire and dragging the US into conflict again, c) USA/Israel seeing Iran use this time too well to reprepare for conflict, d) other reasons stemming from distrust and lack of honor.


If you genuinely think that there was no miscommunication then that is fine, but given there are already areas of contention (status of Lebanon, Iran's ability to exact tolls, Iran's ability to retain enrichment capabilities), it seems that is optimistic.

If there are already areas of contention, then that should raise the specter of miscommunication as likely. Whose "fault" of miscommunication is irrelevant, but given how this entire war has been a somewhat of a comedy of errors, there should always be a high index of diplomatic inadequacy.
 

broadsword

Brigadier
Both parties seem to have a broad consensus on the 10-point peace plan. It's the details that need to be hammered out. So they will push forward from there. Who knows how long the peace will last? So, it's good till canceled. Maybe some years later, Israel will claim to find another smoking gun.
 
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