"it's a bag of chips....yes but on the screen it'll be a kitten"-a great movie,so prescient-it never gets old.
2026 Iran War Strategy and Analysis
- Thread starter plawolf
- Start date
Seen the picture, it isn't the Ford, though
It could be argued that way, surely, but then you have cases like this in that apparently they were trying to target someone in an empty apartment and instead killed their own ally, of which I'm sure they must have been also aware of.
While they might be good at infiltrating, maping out an organization and its leadership, it seems that, like what you point out, there is some political expediency affecting decision making around these intelligence networks but there also seem to be a need to be cruel and inflict as much terror short term, thinking that will solve the issue medium and long term, which also leads to these network to being used up quite fast for the sake of some "statements" that violate all sorts laws but don't achieve their goals.
If this is the case and the intelligence agency itself can't or won't prevent from these decisions being made, for the reasons that it might be, it makes it a bad organization, in my opinion. Part of your job is analyzing what might happen if you expose up your intelligence network for some headlines and convince yourself of how utterly badass you are for blowing up kids and why it is a bad idea.
Particularly dumb as it seems both iranians, hezbollah and hamas have adapted to this by being compartmentalized enough where these actions, while might inflict damage, don't disable the organization.
That the israelis have failed to realize this because they are too busy dehumanizing and underestimating the enemy, and are willing to burn up these networks for one trick pony shows of cruelty and terror tells me they are bad organization and more akin to the Cartels, Mafia or two bit terrorist groups and good chunk of their global access has probably more to do with having access to western intelligence resources rather than merits of their own
More to my point, if this is true, the fact that they go out of their way to mess with officers of allied countries whenever they visit again tells me they are all about cruelty, manipulation above anything else, but then again, that seems to be an issue for the entire country.
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Does anyone actually believe Trump would be spiraling into his most deranged outburst yet if this had really just been a simple pilot rescue and a huge success?
Would they be this ultra desperate for a ceasefire right after it?
At the exact point where they should be acting like they just scored another neat little Hollywood win?
That alone tells you they know the truth is worse than the story they are selling.
Either way, there are far too many questions.
By now it should be obvious that Trump cannot biologically tell the truth, and that the US, media included, has lied far more than Iran since this war began.
Only idiots would still treat American statements like scripture.
This story is full of inconsistencies.
Mechanical problems, bizarre operational choices, assets that make little sense if the mission was really only about a single pilot, all of it points to something else.
And the supposed coincidence is especially ridiculous.
US intelligence believes that most of Iran’s HEU is in the same general area where they landed in Isfahan.
That is not the kind of coincidence I buy.
The earlier firing of generals only makes it look even more suspicious.
Would be on Iran's interest to agree to a temporary, but firm, ceasefire if It can secure emergency Chinese supplies. In a span of 1 month, if Iran makes a quick decision to procure some PLA soon-to-expire stocks of manpads and mass AliExpress-costlike drones, radars and other such equipment with quick delivery, it could rearm very soon
As long as there is ceasefire and not active hostilities, China can heavily and quickly supply, mostly defensive equipment to Iran. The delta difference between resupplies for Iran and US/Israel in a month is imo lopsided to Iran if it can get Chinese supplies
As long as there is ceasefire and not active hostilities, China can heavily and quickly supply, mostly defensive equipment to Iran. The delta difference between resupplies for Iran and US/Israel in a month is imo lopsided to Iran if it can get Chinese supplies
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Why?. They can still enter though the largely untouched borders with Uzbekistan and Pakistan, though. Even with Russia through the Caspian if necessary.
plawolf
Lieutenant General
If America uses nuclear weapons, it won’t be just about principles, but survival and self preservation that will drive EU actions.
America crossing the nuclear threshold in Iran when the conventional war isn’t going its way sets an unacceptable precedent as far as the EU is concerned given the clear and present danger of the Russians deciding to follow suit in Ukraine.
America throwing nukes around also massively increases the risks that others will throw nukes back, and while CONUS might be too far for Iran at present, massive America military bases and large troop concentrations in Europe are not.
Already the alliances America built up over decades is fracturing under the strain of America stupidity. The actual use of nuclear weapons will shatter it.
There will be some small, deluded powers who will still cling to America, but the bigger ones with actual options and a semblance of autonomy left will immediately seek to jump ship.
Something else to consider is that a certain other superpower may well choose to go on the offensive should America cross such an unambiguous red line.
China making a principled stand against America using nuclear weapons with a total and absolute trade embargo backed up by full arsenal of trade enforcement mechanisms established since the Trump Trade War ill have real and sharp teeth, and will likely push many wavering fence sitters into falling in line for fear of suffering secondary trade sanctions themselves.
Indeed, such an egregious crossing of the world’s moral red lines could well be the perfect pretext for China to really bring the full might of its trade and economic weapons to bear against hosts of American military bases in its region.
The message is clear, remove those American bases and forces, or suffer a total trade ban with China and anyone using Chinese components anywhere in its supply chain. If that doesn’t work, China has absolute escalation dominance to go full kinetic.
Which it may well have to do, as another obvious consequence of America using nukes for real would be a mad rush by many middling powers towards nuclear weapons themselves. Japan is already leaning hard in that direction with obvious hints from Washington. And it will probably take something on the scale of China going full invasion and occupation of the Japanese home islands to force all the others thinking about nuclear breakout to give up on that dream.
Such a course of events where America shatters the current world order with its own arrogance and stupidity and China forging a new one through the demonstration of its own superior military power is one of the few scenarios where the incumbent dominant power could be utterly usurped by a rising new power without a full scale direct war between them.
The inteligence gathering agenices everywhere deeply intflitrated by the billionaire class as well.
Means the agencies generating reports requested by the billionaire backers, and they received by the politicians backed by the billionaire backers.
Most likelly it is a mashup of different billiuonaires has different degree of infulence over parts of every pimportant organisation and decision maker centers in the public sphere.
The resulting actions not based on inteligent data collection, but simply the current relative weight of different parties in the decision making process.
If the israel pro party is on the top in the key positions, and no one forming strong oposition they will attack Iran, regardless of if it makes sense, or will bring result.
Means the agencies generating reports requested by the billionaire backers, and they received by the politicians backed by the billionaire backers.
Most likelly it is a mashup of different billiuonaires has different degree of infulence over parts of every pimportant organisation and decision maker centers in the public sphere.
The resulting actions not based on inteligent data collection, but simply the current relative weight of different parties in the decision making process.
If the israel pro party is on the top in the key positions, and no one forming strong oposition they will attack Iran, regardless of if it makes sense, or will bring result.
plawolf
Lieutenant General
That is actually a very interesting video, as it shows what appears to be multiple medium cal impact craters around the burnt out wreckage.
With the second screen grab showing the most conclusive evidence of an impact crater and blast marks radiating out.
What is most interesting about these impact craters it’s that they are a bit Goldilocks in that they are too small for aero bombs, too large for autocannon and the like, but perfectly sized for artillery.
Even if, by some chance, this was not a failed attempt to grab uranium "Maduro-style", another point still stands. If the US has decayed internally to the point where the mere possibility of one pilot being captured now forces it to burn through more than half a billion dollars and sacrifice dozens of valuable aircraft just to avoid political humiliation, then it is hard to argue it can still fight serious long-duration wars at all. And that problem gets even worse when you remember the US is no longer some industrial monster that can effortlessly replace major hardware losses. Not to mention that this mindset risks exponentially more lives by constantly trying to save or recover every individual casualty at any cost, so it's doomed from the start. Americans, especially Trump supporters, seem determined to prove they are getting dumber by the day with their foolish revelry.
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