2025 Israel - Iranian conflict

Sinnavuuty

Captain
Registered Member
Looks like Israel actually thought Iran would collapse after the initial attack, like Russia with respect to Ukraine. However, Russia was able to pivot and continue its operations indefinitely, thanks to industrial capacity and a land border. Israel has neither of these.
Israel can count on the support of the US and Western countries. But I really doubt that they can do much unless they directly join Operation Rising Lion against Iran.

I agree that Israel expected a total collapse when it eliminated the Iranian chain of command of the IRGC, attacked air bases and carried out a drone campaign hunting down SAMs and mobile launchers, in addition to stirring up all the operatives inside Iran for a popular uprising, but clearly things are not going the way Israel planned and they spent years planning this.
 

zyklon

Junior Member
Registered Member
Why would they use a base that is 140 km from the Israeli border (<80 km from Damascus)?

Beggars can't be choosers.

Not to mention that there is no guarantee that the Americans have control of the base.

You must also think that FSA is able to operate without US funding and air support.

You are just theorizing here. Nothing concrete.

You're welcome to ignore the writing on the wall, but the Middle East wouldn't be where it is now if not for Syria's recent westward shift.

As for resupplying the bases, they land in northern Syria, but no one knows where:

Thank you for acknowledging the existence of runways under American control in Syria!

If you're curious about the location of US bases and whether they can support CTOL platforms in northern Syria, data from a fitness tracker company known as Starva may interest you.
 

BillRamengod

Junior Member
Registered Member
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Regarding why Iran has drastically reduced the number of missile attacks on Israeli territory in recent days, and why it has shifted from launching massive salvos of hundreds or dozens of missiles to rare barrages—even beginning to fire single medium-range ballistic missiles with a range of 2,000 kilometers.

Known missile bases are marked in red, bombed sites in blue, and sites currently under attack in yellow.

Due to Israeli strikes on launchers, missile bases, and storage facilities, Iran has gradually lost the ability to use large-scale ballistic missiles (with a range of up to 1,600 km) stationed in the western part of the country. It is now forced to rely on individual long-range missiles (approximately 2,000 km) launched from deep within its territory.
Source: MiddleEastBuka

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zyklon

Junior Member
Registered Member
Monday when Israel damaged a hospital in Iran.
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And now they play victim.

To be fair they're not only victims of Iranian aggression, but also victims of their own aggression.


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Regarding why Iran has drastically reduced the number of missile attacks on Israeli territory in recent days, and why it has shifted from launching massive salvos of hundreds or dozens of missiles to rare barrages—even beginning to fire single medium-range ballistic missiles with a range of 2,000 kilometers.

Known missile bases are marked in red, bombed sites in blue, and sites currently under attack in yellow.

Due to Israeli strikes on launchers, missile bases, and storage facilities, Iran has gradually lost the ability to use large-scale ballistic missiles (with a range of up to 1,600 km) stationed in the western part of the country. It is now forced to rely on individual long-range missiles (approximately 2,000 km) launched from deep within its territory.
Source: MiddleEastBuka

View attachment 154877

So Iran is now resorting to depleting its limited arsenal of MaRV/MIRV capable, (near-)ICBM class of ballistic missiles to publicly respond to Israeli airstrikes?

If that's the case, Iran isn't long from losing its ability to retaliate against Israeli aggression with ballistic missiles in general.
 
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