2025 Israel - Iranian conflict

HighGround

Senior Member
Registered Member
Israel has limited number of planes. Those planes need maintenance, pilots need rest, munitions run out. Moreover Israel is still using standoff missiles which are not cheap and likely even US has limited stockpile of them.

Iran is going to run out of rockets before Israel and US

Moreover, the more Iran attacks the more depleted their AD gets, which means more of Iran's missile will go through causing severe damage. Slowly but surely Israel's significant strategic and economic targets will be destroyed. That's the kind of damage that takes decades to recover.

Conversely, focusing on Military targets depletes Israel’s ability to retaliate. You can hit the “economic” targets with drones. BMs are much more precious.

No matter how powerful or awesome Israel is per capita, it's still a tiny country of 8 million. The overall weight is so much smaller and US cannot compensate for that.

Yes, if Israel starts to take too much damage, US might start fighting Iran too. But that is a different discussion.
Even if Israel is alone, Iran and Israel are separated by a thousand+ kilometers. The most efficient delivery method is a jet fighter. This leads to one inevitable conclusion.

Moreover, Netanyahu has been on the political ropes for the last 6 months. He needs an optics win or a continuation of the war. So I find it unlikely that he will sue for peace that’s not on his terms.
 

HighGround

Senior Member
Registered Member
What makes you think Israel wouldn't just use alternative airbases in Cyprus, Jordan, or Azerbaijan?

Also, if Israel sufficiently degrades Iran AD with the long range munitions, they will just switch to glide bombs, and then gravity bombs. If they haven't already.

Further separate Israeli jets from their munitions. I have doubts that Azerbaijan will agree. I dont know if Iran will bomb Jordan if they are used by the IAF, but I can see it happening.

And I doubt any Gulf country will allow IAF to bomb Iran.
 

tamsen_ikard

Senior Member
Registered Member
Houthis are kind of a reincarnation of North Yemen and inherited its stockpile and territory. The "legitimate" Yemen is South Yemen. North Yemen was full socialist, not Islamic or Arab nationalist. South Yemen was Baathist.

China, North Korea, Vietnam. All socialist.

Russia, Ukraine, Yemen. Ex-socialist.

Iran. Never socialist.

Is the difference in morale and ideological cohesion just a coincidence?
Current Islamic Republic of Iran has a revolutionary government that has more similarity with communist revolutionary governments. The kind of social and people mobilization structure that exists in Iran is also similar to communist governments. They showed their revolutionary mettle during Iraq Iran war and during the last 50 years of heavy western sanctions. Their government goal towards self reliance is also similar to many communist countries.

I think people underestimate the kind revolutionary zeal that existed in Iran. Does it exist now? Maybe not. But the governance structure has the ability to do all of society mobilization.

Look out at Basij, an all of society militia similar to China's people's militia. Probably copied from Mao's ideas of a people's war
 

vincent

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
Bit of a long post.

The key is national identity. The concept of a nation state is a recent one and in pre-modern times loyalty/identity in the vast majority of the world's polities including East Asia was determined by deference to religion or your sovereign rather than "country." In my view though, China and by extension the Sinosphere already had some early concepts of statehood or at least underlying cultural factors that made its transition to modern nationhood smoother than in other parts of the world. It maintained cultural and linguistic continuity, superstition was rife and religions like Buddhism and Taoism existed but by and large the government maintained strict control over the proliferation of such beliefs, and it had an organized bureacracy through which to maintain the territories rather than relying on feudal lords.

You contrast this with the rest of the world. Let's not speak of the other Middle-Eastern nations like Syria and Libya, which are artificial colonial creations and thus the concept of nationhood just never took root, with everyone preferring to stick with their own tribe. But even for Iran, where they can claim some lineage dating back to the Persian Empires of past. Although Persian culture remained influential in the medieval world, what separates Iran from China, which had periods of barbarian rule, was that Chinese culture always remained front and center in these barbarian dynasties. Whereas for all the talks of how Persian culture endured in the Islamic world, it was never front and center, but one of the players in the orchestra sharing seats with the religion of Islam and the culture of the Turkic tribes that founded the empires. So while Persian is for sure a long lasting and great culture, it was never able to maintain civilizational autonomy the same way Chinese did. Let's not forget too while China is 90% Han, Iran is only 60% Persian, so there plenty of other people there who have their own views of sovereignty and varying degrees of identifying with "Iranism."

I can go on longer, but Sinitic civilization made it so that even in the 1900s when Korea, China, and Vietnam were under everyone's boot heel it wasn't hard to promulgate a sense of unified identity that even illiterate peasants were willing to die for. The Middle East including Persia was always just way too fractured to convince the peoples there to buy into the concept of nationhood, let alone get them to die for it.
I have been deleting off-topic posts. I leave this one alone because of the effort by the poster.
 

dingyibvs

Senior Member
Right. And I suppose you dont think the same applies to Iran? When those Israeli jets who are allowed to operate unimpeded destroy all of Iran’s refineries and crater the economy, will you still be saying the same thing? Because they’re already beginning that process right now. Not only for export purposes, which form a large part of their economy, but Iran heavily relies on natural gas to power their own country.

Also, Iran can absolutely deplete the Israeli interceptor stocks in areas and create gaps in their IADS. Keep in mind we’re still on DAY 2. Only the US can replenish their stocks in any reasonable timeframe, and its not gonna happen in a day. Israel is never going to lose just because Iranian missiles are hitting Tel Aviv. This didn’t work in WW2, it didn’t work in Ukraine, bombing a populace into submission has never worked. All October 7th did was make them even more bloodthirsty. So long as Israel’s military capabilities are unimpeded, they will always have the advantage.

I also dont know why you think Iran could even keep this up for that long. They have 2000 BMs, not a billion, and we know Israel is actively hunting them. They can’t keep this pace of strikes up for more than a couple weeks at best without exhausting up their entire arsenal. Israel meanwhile is supplied by the entire west. Sure their operational tempo might slow, but they will still be able to carry out operations over Iran.

Of course it can work, because Iran the goal is not to bomb Israel into submission, but simply for them to stop bombing Iran. The US couldn't bomb Vietnam into submission, but the Vietnamese could inflict enough pain to make the US withdraw. This is the same concept. The poorer, less powerful nation trying to inflict enough pain on the wealthier aggressor to stop being aggressive is very much a time-tested strategy.
 
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