2025 Israel - Iranian conflict

HighGround

Senior Member
Registered Member
The idea is not to cause regime change in Israel but to cause current regime to lose their motivation to keep going and stop. If they think they are losing more than gaining, they will certainly stop.
Israel can keep bombing Tehran longer than Iran can shoot rockets. Especially since Iran doesnt seem to want to go after the airfields.

But this is the problem with Iran. Always about optics. Instead of optics they should focus on winning the war and dealing real, long-term damage to Israel to establish deterrance.
 

doggydogdo

Junior Member
Registered Member
Israel can keep bombing Tehran longer than Iran can shoot rockets. Especially since Iran doesnt seem to want to go after the airfields.

But this is the problem with Iran. Always about optics. Instead of optics they should focus on winning the war and dealing real, long-term damage to Israel to establish deterrance.
If Iran goes for the airfields, are you not going to see it. We don't see 90% of the hits. Also, Israel uses standoff munitions for Iran and will also run out.
 

Botnet

Junior Member
Registered Member
Nope, it's the opposite. Israel needs to go for real targets while Iran needs to go for optics. The reason is that Israel is supplied by the US, Iran is never gonna deplete its defenses from afar. It can only win by making the Israelis lose appetite for war. It's possible as Israel is a high income country, and high income folks don't like to spend every night in shelters and going to work past a new set of rubbles every day. To accomplish this Iran doesn't need to level Israel, it just needs to land a few missiles in major Israeli cities every day.
Right. And I suppose you dont think the same applies to Iran? When those Israeli jets who are allowed to operate unimpeded destroy all of Iran’s refineries and crater the economy, will you still be saying the same thing? Because they’re already beginning that process right now. Not only for export purposes, which form a large part of their economy, but Iran heavily relies on natural gas to power their own country.

Also, Iran can absolutely deplete the Israeli interceptor stocks in areas and create gaps in their IADS. Keep in mind we’re still on DAY 2. Only the US can replenish their stocks in any reasonable timeframe, and its not gonna happen in a day. Israel is never going to lose just because Iranian missiles are hitting Tel Aviv. This didn’t work in WW2, it didn’t work in Ukraine, bombing a populace into submission has never worked. All October 7th did was make them even more bloodthirsty. So long as Israel’s military capabilities are unimpeded, they will always have the advantage.

I also dont know why you think Iran could even keep this up for that long. They have 2000 BMs, not a billion, and we know Israel is actively hunting them. They can’t keep this pace of strikes up for more than a couple weeks at best without exhausting up their entire arsenal. Israel meanwhile is supplied by the entire west. Sure their operational tempo might slow, but they will still be able to carry out operations over Iran.
Israel OTOH cannot win by doing the same to Iran. First because they were the aggressor, and second because Iran is just too large with much more strategic depth. It can win by degrading Iran's capabilities enough that it can no longer launch such attacks regularly. It doesn't need to thoroughly defeat the Iranian military, it just needs to thoroughly destroy the Iranian long range attack capabilities.
 

tamsen_ikard

Senior Member
Registered Member
Israel can keep bombing Tehran longer than Iran can shoot rockets. Especially since Iran doesnt seem to want to go after the airfields.

But this is the problem with Iran. Always about optics. Instead of optics they should focus on winning the war and dealing real, long-term damage to Israel to establish deterrance.
Israel has limited number of planes. Those planes need maintenance, pilots need rest, munitions run out. Moreover Israel is still using standoff missiles which are not cheap and likely even US has limited stockpile of them.

Moreover, the more Iran attacks the more depleted their AD gets, which means more of Iran's missile will go through causing severe damage. Slowly but surely Israel's significant strategic and economic targets will be destroyed. That's the kind of damage that takes decades to recover.

No matter how powerful or awesome Israel is per capita, it's still a tiny country of 8 million. The overall weight is so much smaller and US cannot compensate for that.

Yes, if Israel starts to take too much damage, US might start fighting Iran too. But that is a different discussion.
 

crazyinsane105

Junior Member
VIP Professional
Supply of Israeli AD is honestly quite limited. Even with U.S. replenishing stocks, the number of missiles that can be produced in a yearly basis isn’t more than a few hundred, while Iran can produce many more ballistic missiles per year.
 

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
What makes you think Israel wouldn't just use alternative airbases in Cyprus, Jordan, or Azerbaijan?

Also, if Israel sufficiently degrades Iranian AD with the long range munitions, they will just switch to glide bombs, and then gravity bombs. If they haven't already.
 
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TPenglake

Junior Member
Registered Member
What has allowed East Asia to endure while the middle east cannot? Backing from China? Or being so influenced by China to hold out hard unlike others who become soft?

Anyway I remember reading a book on negotiation. I remember the very first point is be ready to walk away. In other words most of your position is already decided by your bargaining power before negotiations even begin! So if you hold few to no cards as Trump said, you are just wasting your time.
Bit of a long post.

The key is national identity. The concept of a nation state is a recent one and in pre-modern times loyalty/identity in the vast majority of the world's polities including East Asia was determined by deference to religion or your sovereign rather than "country." In my view though, China and by extension the Sinosphere already had some early concepts of statehood or at least underlying cultural factors that made its transition to modern nationhood smoother than in other parts of the world. It maintained cultural and linguistic continuity, superstition was rife and religions like Buddhism and Taoism existed but by and large the government maintained strict control over the proliferation of such beliefs, and it had an organized bureacracy through which to maintain the territories rather than relying on feudal lords.

You contrast this with the rest of the world. Let's not speak of the other Middle-Eastern nations like Syria and Libya, which are artificial colonial creations and thus the concept of nationhood just never took root, with everyone preferring to stick with their own tribe. But even for Iran, where they can claim some lineage dating back to the Persian Empires of past. Although Persian culture remained influential in the medieval world, what separates Iran from China, which had periods of barbarian rule, was that Chinese culture always remained front and center in these barbarian dynasties. Whereas for all the talks of how Persian culture endured in the Islamic world, it was never front and center, but one of the players in the orchestra sharing seats with the religion of Islam and the culture of the Turkic tribes that founded the empires. So while Persian is for sure a long lasting and great culture, it was never able to maintain civilizational autonomy the same way Chinese did. Let's not forget too while China is 90% Han, Iran is only 60% Persian, so there plenty of other people there who have their own views of sovereignty and varying degrees of identifying with "Iranism."

I can go on longer, but Sinitic civilization made it so that even in the 1900s when Korea, China, and Vietnam were under everyone's boot heel it wasn't hard to promulgate a sense of unified identity that even illiterate peasants were willing to die for. The Middle East including Persia was always just way too fractured to convince the peoples there to buy into the concept of nationhood, let alone get them to die for it.
 
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