2025 Israel - Iranian conflict

delfer

New Member
Registered Member

Sure looks like it got through

Are the slow ones mostly old stock for decoy purposes?

edit: beaten by seconds
Wow, did not expect Iran to actually start hitting heavy like this. They really aren’t backing down this time. Good. This is how wars should be fought. No playing around. Go for the throat.

It’s not the 2000 missiles they promised, but I think Iran’s response this time might just make Israel think twice about their plans. Iran is really starting to hurt them.
 

Botnet

Junior Member
Registered Member
We dont see Houthis AD in action either, Israel for sure degraded it, but to assume you can take out Iran's AD completely when US right on Yemen coast couldnt do so against Yemen rebels is a big strech.
The Houthis are a militia. They have little SAMs in the first place, and coupled with the limited intelligence Israel and the US has on them its much harder for them to wipe out the Houthi’s capabilities. You’re gonna have a much harder time finding truck based launchers compared to S-300s TELs. Iran on the other hand has been thoroughly compromised by Mossad, we know they had the locations of a large part of the Iranian AD beforehand. And with a mixture of sabotage, cyberwarfare, and strikes they were able to cripple Iranian AD and allow Israeli aircraft to operate freely over Iran for much of the first day. No one is claiming that Israel took out all the AD, there’s other reasons for an absence of any SAMs. Disruption to C2, cyberattacks, loss of radars and such can all prevent Iranian SAMs from coordinating and forming up a cohesive defense. We’ve seen the US pull off an operation like this in Iraq, don’t know why we need to be skeptical that Israel can do the same.
You also cant assume just because AD against high altitude hypersonic targeting a small high pop area are visible, it must also means intercepts against small munitions or evading aircraft over a landmass the size of Iran are visible.
Lol if Iranian SAMs hit an F-35 it would be a VERY visible explosion. But thats beside the point its apparent that they’re mostly relying on AA because all the videos we’ve seen only show heavy tracer fire…from AA.
 

dingyibvs

Senior Member
There is much better strategic value in that than hitting Tel Aviv neighborhoods. Concentrating strikes on military infrastructure and airfields allows them to better overwhelm and deplete Israeli AD at those targeted locations and results in hits than could actually delay and disrupt any Israeli retaliation in between missile salvos. Any breathers Iran can achieve is time that they can use to regain C2 and form up some kind of AD umbrella around their infrastructure.

Nope, it's the opposite. Israel needs to go for real targets while Iran needs to go for optics. The reason is that Israel is supplied by the US, Iran is never gonna deplete its defenses from afar. It can only win by making the Israelis lose appetite for war. It's possible as Israel is a high income country, and high income folks don't like to spend every night in shelters and going to work past a new set of rubbles every day. To accomplish this Iran doesn't need to level Israel, it just needs to land a few missiles in major Israeli cities every day.

Israel OTOH cannot win by doing the same to Iran. First because they were the aggressor, and second because Iran is just too large with much more strategic depth. It can win by degrading Iran's capabilities enough that it can no longer launch such attacks regularly. It doesn't need to thoroughly defeat the Iranian military, it just needs to thoroughly destroy the Iranian long range attack capabilities.
 

HighGround

Senior Member
Registered Member
If you think that “optics” will lead to some sort of revolution, regime change, or international action in/against Israel, you’ve clearly not paid attention to the history of Israel over the last 40 years.

Israelis do not shy away from war and the world does not shy away from supplying them with weapons.
 

tamsen_ikard

Senior Member
Registered Member
If you think that “optics” will lead to some sort of revolution, regime change, or international action in/against Israel, you’ve clearly not paid attention to the history of Israel over the last 40 years.

Israelis do not shy away from war and the world does not shy away from supplying them with weapons.
The idea is not to cause regime change in Israel but to cause current regime to lose their motivation to keep going and stop. If they think they are losing more than gaining, they will certainly stop.
 
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