2020: JMSDF & PLAN Surface Combatant strength

Jeff Head

Jeff Head

General
Registered Member
Blackstone said:
I'm having difficulty seeing us trading nukes with China over the Diaoyu islands. Yes, there's the alliance and all that, but Shanghai for Los Angeles and Beijing for Washington D.C. in the name of Japan is a bridge too far.
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The US certainly would not resort to nukes over those islands.

But they would over Tokyo being nuked by China. That was the scenario that was being followed here...if China resorted to nukes against Japan. I do not believe China would nuke Japan over those islands...but if she did, then the US certainly would most probably respond.

If the US allowed a close ally like Japan to be nuked and do nothing, then all credibility and all defense treaties (including with NATO) would be immediately rendered worthless. Not going to happen.

As I said, if it was a convetnional, limited engagement simply over the islands, the US would probably give material support to Japan in terms of intelleigence, recon, surveillance, etc. and not much more. Like the US did for the UK during the Falklands. But all of that would change in an instant if China started losing such a scrimage and then resorted to nuclear arms against the Japanese home islands.

Let's all pray to God such madness never occurs.
 
A

antiterror13

Brigadier
montyp165 said:
The experience with Georgia is something I'd consider instructive on possible US actions in similar situations.

As for fleet estimates, I would say that the current baseline of PLAN strength would for the future constitute forces necessary to counter the JMSDF independent of units assigned to carrier groups (which i estimate would be around 3 carriers total), as carrier groups would be necessary for long range deployments and not necessarily immediately available for operations in the First Island Chain. I'd view that the PLAN numbers after 2020 would be of necessity larger than what the more conservative estimates presume.
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Not quiet ...., the Chinese could station a CBG in the East Cost of Japan, so JMSDF would face 2 fronts ... definitely would weaken JMSDF significantly.

If the Chinese could station a few DDG or frigates and 1 SSN in the Sea of Japan (let's say the Chinese had a concession from NK to access the sea), JMSDF would face 3 strong fronts .. that would give them a lot of trouble :D
 
asif iqbal

asif iqbal

Lieutenant General
LesAdieux said:
didn't know you have so much respect for the USN!

I have slightly different numbers. in 2012, america spent total $140 billion on weapon procurement, assume 20 years life-span on average for all weapons, then china using its FX reserve alone could buy up all america's weapon-stock at brand new price till the very last piece!

china is the largest manufacturing nation in the world, it produces more than anyone else. as for ship building, in the year 2012, 40% of the new ships in the world were built by china.
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As someone said there's a big difference between making container ships and nuclear powered aircraft carriers, and theres just one word that comes to my mind, shale gas, this ensures Americas security for decades to come, expect US to be leading for a very very long time

American innovations make a difference to lives all over the world and probably will do for the foreseeable future

As for USN, they already have replacements in pipeline for all major surface vessels, the designs are in for next generation of the ones being delivered, infact they are looking and planning almost 2 decades ahead

Wth three Osumi Class, two Hyuga Class and 2 more 22DDH the JMSDF will have a formidable ASW capability

With these vessels they will be capable to deploy more than 100 helicopters of all types which is a vast airborne force
 
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A

adeptitus

Captain
VIP Professional
Franklin said:
The Soviet's did it to them selfs. In the end all nations rise and fall due to the decisions they make. Star Wars was in no way a threat to Soviet nuclear deterrence. They had about 10,000 nuclear warheads mounted on thousands of missile's that can be launched from land, air and sea. There was no system in the world that can neutralize a force like that. Had the leaders in the Kremlin just sat tight and did nothing they may have lasted much longer. It was a war of attrition that the US and the USSR was engaged in and in the end the resources of the Soviet ran out before the American's did. In 1983 at the height of the cold war the Soviet Union had a economy of about 1 trillion dollars. The US had a economy that was more than 3 times bigger. Their was no way for the Soviet Union to keep up with the US economically so there was no chance for them to win the arms race. Had they pulled back and focus on their economy and let there nuclear deterrence protect them and let the Americans spent themselves in to a oblivion would have been the smart thing to do. But they didn't and instead ramp up the spending, some say up to 20% to 30% of their GDP went to the armed forces. And we all know what happened.
China has learned from the Soviet Union even today scholars in China can easily get grants if they say that they are studying the Soviet Union. China has studied the Soviet Union more closely than any other country in the world. So they will most likely not make the same mistake as the Soviets did.
This is something i posted earlier in another thread. This is the starting point as of now between the Chinese and Japanese navies.
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From M. Gorbachev:

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montyp165

Senior Member
asif iqbal said:
Wth three Osumi Class, two Hyuga Class and 2 more 22DDH the JMSDF will have a formidable ASW capability

With these vessels they will be capable to deploy more than 100 helicopters of all types which is a vast airborne force
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Soviet counterforce planning against the JMSDF I feel is still instructive for the PLAN wrt dealing with JMSDF airborne ASW assets. As always combined arms will carry the day...
 
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bd popeye

bd popeye

The Last Jedi
VIP Professional
china is the largest manufacturing nation in the world, it produces more than anyone else. as for ship building, in the year 2012, 40% of the new ships in the world were built by china.
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Big ..big difference in producing warships to military standards as compared to merchant vessels.

Indeed China is the largest producer of merchant vessels in the World. Fact. And they are building a large modern Naval fleet.

How ever how many CVNs has China produced? What about LHD/LHA/LPDs? How many? None yet.
 
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Jeff Head

Jeff Head

General
Registered Member
bd popeye said:
Big ..big difference in producing warships to military standards as compared to merchant vessels.

Indeed China is the largest producer of merchant vessels in the World. Fact. And they are building a large modern Naval fleet.

However how many CVNs has China produced? What about LHD/LHA/ *** LPDs *** ? How many? None yet.
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Well, they have produced the three
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, each over 20,000 tons.

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But, to your point, they have not produced any large, full deck LHDs (like the Wasps, Mistrals, Canberras or Juan Carlos)), LHAs (like the Tarawa or America), or LPHs (Like the Ocean or Dokdo).

And of course, though they have converted a carrier that was already built, they have not produced an indegenous CV or CVN yet either.

I expect over the next 5-7 years we will see both of these points change and they will build an indegenous carrier and an indegenous large, flat deck Amphib of some sort.

But time will tell.
 
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asif iqbal

asif iqbal

Lieutenant General
I have no idea what South Korea is thinking, they have built a amazing flat top the Dokdo Class and have done some major training and excersies with it, its a top notch vessal that is, very good for South Korea and enhances thier capability many fold

however they built one and then just went to sleep, they have the resources, the money and the capability to continue building these ships, as originaly planned, all 4 of them

as far as i know the programme suggests that the second one will be laid down sometime post 2015 but really i was hoping they could have one out sooner!!

with 4 Dokdo Class LHDs South Korea would field a formidable ASW force, a even more powerful amphibous assault force and would be instrumental in a amphibous beech landing to out flank and split the North Korean defences if it came to war, the navy could then attack by launching a force behind enemy lines and forceing the North Koreans to counter attack hence exposing themselves from thier heavily fortified bunkers and tunnels

basically what im trying to say is i dont understand why they built one and then sat twidling thier thumbs, JMSDF has got it spot on!
 
C

climax

New Member
asif iqbal said:
I have no idea what South Korea is thinking, they have built a amazing flat top the Dokdo Class and have done some major training and excersies with it, its a top notch vessal that is, very good for South Korea and enhances thier capability many fold

however they built one and then just went to sleep, they have the resources, the money and the capability to continue building these ships, as originaly planned, all 4 of them

as far as i know the programme suggests that the second one will be laid down sometime post 2015 but really i was hoping they could have one out sooner!!

with 4 Dokdo Class LHDs South Korea would field a formidable ASW force, a even more powerful amphibous assault force and would be instrumental in a amphibous beech landing to out flank and split the North Korean defences if it came to war, the navy could then attack by launching a force behind enemy lines and forceing the North Koreans to counter attack hence exposing themselves from thier heavily fortified bunkers and tunnels

basically what im trying to say is i dont understand why they built one and then sat twidling thier thumbs, JMSDF has got it spot on!
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Look like amazing and very good but not reliable and has problems. So they need more time to take it.

SK was send the ship travel around for offers and want to sell it for foreign customer, but nobody want it in time.

The ship's cost very easy for LPH (650m $), but not meet high requirements from customer like Australia.
(I'll note the other project like XK-2 tank of SK army just get cost 8.5m $ if they hit mass number - around 600 units or more, so Dokdo cost may be calculate in that way for 4 ships )
 
asif iqbal

asif iqbal

Lieutenant General
climax said:
Look like amazing and very good but not reliable and has problems. So they need more time to take it.

SK was send the ship travel around for offers and want to sell it for foreign customer, but nobody want it in time.

The ship's cost very easy for LPH (650m $), but not meet high requirements from customer like Australia.
(I'll note the other project like XK-2 tank of SK army just get cost 8.5m $ if they hit mass number - around 600 units or more, so Dokdo cost may be calculate in that way for 4 ships )
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I have no idea what you just said but if your saying the Dokdo class is not a good ship then your wrong, and it certainly is not up for sale either
 
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