2020/2021 Tokyo Summer Olympics

That was an immediate and cost-free way for China to improve. We had lost every final combat bout out of several; had we taken just 2, the gold medal count would be pretty much out of reach for the Americans. But there are other ways to improve that I'm not so sure should be undertaken. Or rather, I think should not be undertaken. Swimming medals are very possible for China to emphasize and unlike some athletics events, we are given constant reminder that Chinese genetics are indeed built to swim competitively. However, swimming is a rich people sport and it would require drawing talent from middle class urban families. This is both difficult to do and possibly should not be done. In order to do this, the culture towards sports in China has to change. Culturally, Chinese people pity those who earn a living with their body as opposed to with their mind. The general consensus in China is to focus as much on academics as possible while exercising just enough to remain healthy... which is important if you want to pull long study hours. So there are 2 problems right there for Olympic glory: 1, in order to draw city talent, you need to create a culture of life balance rather than with nearly all emphasis on academics so that kids can play sports enough to be recognized as an early talent to even think about recruiting. This takes time from his studies. If a kid swims once a month, his talent will simply not be visible to recruiters. 2. You need to remove the stigma that it is a shame to earn a living with your body. When I was a child, I once remarked how cool it was to be a UFC fighter and win matches and my father responded that he pities those people who allow thier own bodies to be injured and destroyed for other's amusement. My girlfriend just yesterday told me that if a talent recruiter came to tell her that her child shows incredible athletic promise and he would like to recruit him, her answer would be, "No, no, hell no, fuck no. If you ever come back, I'll set you on fire in broad daylight and just accept the legal consequences. Stay away from my child!" She says that an Olympic gold medalist in China works his entire young life away for a 1% chance at 2 minutes of fame. You need to be Liu Xiang or Guo Jingjing to really make any money. If not, you'll most likely end up gifted a moderate apartment and hold a medium income job as a coach. She says why would you want that? She can almost guarantee much better than that if she just studies. And athletes only get that if they make it to the 1% of gold medalists and succeed. If not, there is a high chance that they will end up in a low-key type of poverty. So as you see, in order to change the culture so that more inner city youths are recruited as swimming talents, the focus would have to be made more on personal balance rather on academic elitism. And the problem with that is that the Olympic games are, as the title denotes, just games. The real competition is in technology. By taking emphasis away from academics, it can cause China's tech drive to bleed some energy and that's not worth it, therefore I don't think this second measure should be taken. However, I think that with time, this will happen eventually. China is fervently trying to make up as much ground as possible to overtake the US. Once this is done and the US is behind, China's massive population can maintain the lead on cruise control, and then, the culture will naturally drift away from academic perfection at all costs and towards life balance, which includes sports and pursuit of physical excellence.
You are missing one important fact. Athletic talent is not drawn from the same gene pool as top academic talent. By promoting sports, you are giving an alternative to those kids that are unable to compete in China's extremely competitive and intensive education system. The fact is that each individual is genetically predisposed to succeed in certain areas. 95 pct of people working in the technology sector would never succeed in any sport even if they were trained to since birth.
 

sinophilia

Junior Member
Registered Member
Current Situation: Not too great for China to stay on top.
OK so China has 38 golds to America's 36. Really, America has 37 because it would be beyond an act of God for the US to lose to Japan in basketball. The US bus could crash and all of them could run the rest of the way bleeding with concussions and still beat Japan like they were playing a mild warm up. Without that, there is only a 1 gold medal difference and the US has women's volleyball vs Brazil (50/50 chance), and 2 boxing matches (1 against an Uzbek who KO'd this same American opponent the last time they fought) and 1 against a Cuban. China has 1 boxing match but I have no hopes for it. We'll just say that the US needs to choke on all 3 for China to win and if they get one, they will tie and win by silver count.

Well, both American boxers here have lost to these opponents before. In fact, Davis got beat twice by Cruz. And their opponents are both heavy betting favorites. So, assuming both Americans do lose according to predictions, then America can at best tie for gold (and win through silver). Still a great achievement for China. And this would of course be ignoring China having a chance at boxing gold and US possibly losing in Brazil (US is only slight favorite there).

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(Jalolov looks to be updated to -750, extremely favored)


Also, if you look at the betting odds for the Chinese vs Brit match, the Brit is only very slightly favored (tossup). No idea though if this is because of a lack of bets.
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
You are missing one important fact. Athletic talent is not drawn from the same gene pool as top academic talent. By promoting sports, you are giving an alternative to those kids that are unable to compete in China's extremely competitive and intensive education system. The fact is that each individual is genetically predisposed to succeed in certain areas. 95 pct of people working in the technology sector would never succeed in any sport even if they were trained to since birth.
Well, firstly, to make athletic talent visible, all kids need to be more balanced towards sports than specialized into academics. That reduces the academic momentum of the country. Secondly, those two talent pools do indeed overlap. Nothing says you need to be stupid to have good muscles. There are people with average or even slightly below average intellect and fantastic athletic talent but would prefer to spec into a normal office job rather than take the risk of being a professional athlete. That is a cultural and risk management decision.

Lastly, not as a reply to what you wrote but as an addendum to what I wrote:

Take America's Medals Away.
While Chinese athletes might not always overlap in talent with their American counterparts, plenty of poor countries do. Specifically, in running, Kenyans and Ethiopians are excellent at the marathon and Jamaicans, Bahamans, etc... are excellent at the dash. The problem is that these countries are often without the funds for proper talent recruitment and training, lacking training sites, equipment, and advanced sport science knowledge. China has all 3. China should invest in building "Friendship Arenas" in these countries with scholarships for the local talented where Chinese sport scientists go to help train them with what we know to give them a further boost to winning their running races. We can even send Chinese athletes to train with them to see if there is anything we can learn. These gold medals won't belong to China, but making the US lose them is just as good. We've already seen from this Olympics that without a rush of running medals, it takes a lot of luck for the US to compete with China in gold medals.
 

Phead128

Captain
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
tiktok/douyin is one of the most innovative and profitable social platform in the world. China's recent moves on tuition will probably affect some students, therefore fewer scientists will be produced. Some students just need that extra help to get over their difficulties.
Esports and video games is another innovative and profitable industry.
China is trying to reduce societal hyper intense competitiveness to avoid Japan-style aging and population decline. If birth rates rises, China will have overall more scientist . A decline in total labor pool with declining fertility rate will produce less warm bodies and scientists.
 
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