2019 India-Pakistani border clash

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kwaigonegin

kwaigonegin

Colonel
Mohsin77 said:
Hello everyone,

Firstly, I'd like to apologize to the Chinese hosts of this forum for the recent hysteria coming from us Pakistanis on the internet recently. People get carried away in such times. Many claims were made by both sides, and much disinformation has spread online.

The following is intel on the air engagement I received from multiple sources within the PAF. I hope this helps to clear up some events:

1) The strike package consisted of Thunders and Mirages. Air cover was provided by Vipers, which remained within our airspace and never crossed the LOC.

2) The IAF scrambled Bisons. Flankers were also involved (they were most likely already flying CAP.) There are reports of Mirage 2Ks, but i have no confirmation they were involved and i doubt it.

3) PAF's strike package successfully released their payload from our side of the LOC, composed of the H-series standoff munitions, and guided them to their targets while crossing the LOC. The targets were multiple infantry and SOF HQs in IOK. The chosen points of impacts were open fields besides the structures to demonstrate capability only.

4) As the strike package disengaged, and headed back across the LOC, the IAF had vectored in Bisons and Flankers.

5) As the Bisons and Flankers closed in, they were engaged by the Vipers in waiting. The result was one Bison downed (only 1 confirmed kill).

6) The PAF is convinced that it took out a Flanker, mainly because a Viper called "Fox 3" on the Flanker. However, there is no (credible) evidence of a Flanker's wreckage and no confirmation from the IAF, therefore it is likely the AMRAAMs either missed, or the Flanker was damaged, but made it back to base.

7) The Mi-17 which went down near Srinagar, I have been told was fratricide.

One open question at this point is: Was the Bison downed in WVR or BVR combat? This is important because the Bison is equipped with an Israeli jamming pod which according to the USAF makes BVR shots on it much less effective. If it was downed by Fox 3, it means the PAF has cracked this jamming, and would be significant from an EW perspective. On the other hand, if it was Fox 2 or Guns, it would mean its HOBS/HMDS capability failed, against Vipers, which are not equipped with an AIM9X. Another open question is how many total A/C were involved in this engagement on both sides? On the surface, it appears like the PAF was able to attain local superiority in the area.

Regarding the infamous end-user agreement of the Vipers: It has two sections. One that is public, and another that is classified. The way the PAF used the Vipers here, most likely falls within that classified section, and this is why the ISPR clumsily denied that Vipers were involved. The ISPR screwed up here with its wording. It should've simply said the Vipers were not involved in the strike package and refused to answer beyond that. Instead they over reached.

The other mistake by the ISPR was reporting 2 kills and 2 pilots captured initially, but this is normal confusion in the opening moments of any military engagement. They rushed out a statement in excitement. However, as some Indian commentators have admitted, the "perception battle" was won by Pakistan, by a long margin. In this sense, the ISPR did an effective job overall, and the leadership in Pakistan played its cards very effectively (up till the writing of this post at least.)

Again, at this point, there is zero evidence of any other kills. There is no evidence of any Flanker kill, and no Vipers were shot down either. Both sides are exaggerating their claims, however, India's claims from the outset, since the (failed) Balakot strike, have been completely ridiculous.

... I hope this helps.
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thanks Mohsin! I personally find your post to be the most fair and accurate from everything I've read!
 
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absra

Just Hatched
Registered Member
Mohsin77 said:
Hassan is a Viper pilot. There are pictures of him in a Viper cockpit. And once you go into a Viper squadron in the PAF, you dont go back to piloting the JF-17.
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Makes sense.

Abhinandan said he was ‘chasing his target’ when he got shot. So he was probably chasing a Thunder that dropped it’s payload and was shot down when he entered POK?

Also, if an AMRAAM potentially misses, is it possible that it’s wreckage can be found 80km away?
 
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absra

Just Hatched
Registered Member
My theory was that since IAF was so reluctant in accepting even the first pilot until the video was released, maybe PAF did capture the other pilot as well and didn’t want to show him around until publicly claimed by India (which they would never - to avoid embarrassment)

In this way, the other pilot wouldn’t be protected under Geneva Conventions, and could be used to gather intelligence.

Now that I read my post again it seems more like a good movie plot, but would be nice to hear an independent assessment of the above.
 
Mohsin77

Mohsin77

Senior Member
Registered Member
Well there is no evidence of a second pilot or a second wreckage, nor a confirmation of any of it, so pointless to speculate.

As for the AMRAAM wreckage, doesnt matter where they say they found it. Problem is that they did, and it is ours, proving we used Vipers, and complicating the plot of this "movie." That is the reason why the details are missing from our side. They are classified.
 
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absra

Just Hatched
Registered Member
Mohsin77 said:
Well there is no evidence of a second pilot or a second wreckage, nor a confirmation of any of it, so pointless to speculate.

As for the AMRAAM wreckage, doesnt matter where they say they found it. Problem is that they did, and it is ours, proving we used Vipers, and complicating the plot of this "movie." That is the reason why the details are missing from our side. They are classified.
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Agreed.

Although there are some weak sources claiming they definitely saw more than one chute.
 
siegecrossbow

siegecrossbow

General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Brumby said:
I guess the JF-17 will have to change their advertising message. What a bummer.
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Technically it is not 100% confirmed yet, but it is looking more and more likely that the F-16s made the kills. Keep in mind, however, that many JF-17 pilots started out flying F-16s as well so it shouldn't be discounted. Maybe Hassan got a promotion in rank to fly the JF-17.

Even if the JF-17s didn't make the kills, however, they were part of the strike package and managed to deliver their payload successfully despite interceptions by Sukhois and Mirages. That, I think, constitutes as combat proven even if it is less glamorous than air-to-air kill.
 
plawolf

plawolf

Lieutenant General
siegecrossbow said:
Technically it is not 100% confirmed yet, but it is looking more and more likely that the F-16s made the kills. Keep in mind, however, that many JF-17 pilots started out flying F-16s as well so it shouldn't be discounted. Maybe Hassan got a promotion in rank to fly the JF-17.

Even if the JF-17s didn't make the kills, however, they were part of the strike package and managed to deliver their payload successfully despite interceptions by Sukhois and Mirages. That, I think, constitutes as combat proven even if it is less glamorous than air-to-air kill.
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Based on what? The AMRAAM debris?

That only shows at least one AMRAAM was fired in the engagement, but does not constitute a strong enough case to contradict the official PAF accreditation of the kill(s) to JF17s.

Based on what I have been able to piece together, and some logical dediction, I think the following sequence of events occurred.

-PAF mirages went in as the strikers, with JF17s as escort. The PAF did not want to send F16s into Indian airspace.

-PAF F16s were airborne as backup CAP and probably escorts for PAF AWACS, but stayed on the Pakistani side of the boarder.

-PAF F16s fired at least one AMRAAM at the Indians, but there is not enough evidence to conclude if it hit anything.

However, all sources seems to agree that the Mig21 was hit over Pakistani airspace, which makes it highly unlikely missile debris from that kill would end up on the Indian side of the line to be found.

For the Indians to have recovered AMRAAM fragments would suggest to me that either the AMRAAM missed the Mig21 and self destructed/impact detonated after running out of fuel and coasting into Indian airspace; or it was fired at and hit something in Indian airspace.

When you consider that the standard AAM loadout for JF17s are a pair of SD10s and PL5s each, it makes good sense to have F16s as backup with more BVRAAMS in case the IAF came chasing the strike package in force.

Form a PAF POV, it makes most sense to set ROE whereby the JF17s acted as first line of defence, with the F16s only meant to engage if IAF came in overwhelming numbers across the line, or if it looks like the JF17s might need help.

So either a PAF pilot ignore ROE and took a pot shot at the Mig21 that the JF17s were already engaging; or a PAF pilot made a judgement call to take a shot at a high value target on the Indian side and potentially still outside the 70km range of the SD10 before said high value target took a shot at the JF17s.

I know which of those two possibilities I think more likely given the professionalism of the PAF. And it should be hard to work out what IAF jet a PAF F16 pilot might think the JF17s might need help dealing with.

The part I am still not sure about is whether said AMRAAM hit what it was aiming for.

I think a technical answer to whether the AMRAAM has a self destruct would help to shift the probabilities.

If the AMRAAM does have a self-destruct, then I would be leaning towards a second IAF jet shit down that day.

If you think about it, the odds of that piece of AMRAAM casing being found so quickly in largely unpopulated woodland is pretty remote. That means the Indians most likely had a locus point to focus their search efforts to yield that find.

If the AMRAAM had a self destruct, it could have airbursted in an eyewateringly large area, which makes the odds of such rapid recovery improbably remote.

If it didn’t have a self destruct, it would have impact detonated, which would have given a higher chance of rapid discovery. But that would still be pretty small odds that such a small explosion and ground damage would lead to such rapid recovery.

However, the highest probability for finding that piece of missile debris so quickly would have been if there was a second fighter killed. In which case the crash site would have served as a pretty good starting point for search and recovery operations, thereby maximising the odds of that piece being discovered.

The odds of discovery would have been even higher if the Indians were motivated in recovering all the aircraft debris they could find, say if they didn’t want to admit the loss of a second, potentially far more capable fighter than the Mig21.
 
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