09V/09VI (095/096) Nuclear Submarine Thread

Biscuits

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I agree that it is absurd to imply that China's advancement only reflects technology and expertise gained from Russia. That is a reasonable interpretation of the document in question, which clearly over-reaches in that regard. At the same time, I do think such comparisons need to be taken in context. In this case, I believe the key piece of context that many people are missing is just how highly regarded the late Soviet advancements in submarine technology were, and the extent to which they remain competitive today.

The Trident II D5 SLBM dates back to the same period (i.e. developed 1980s, fielded 1990). JL-2 is clearly inferior to that missile, and we can only trust that JL-3 will finally match or exceed it. If that happens then China will have matched what America achieved some 35 years ago. That would be a fantastic achievement, and a very important one for China given geographical/deployment considerations, because Trident II is still a beast of a missile, just as the improved Akula-class boats remain formidable SSN's that, at least minus maintenance and training considerations, are better in most respects than the greater part of America's SSN force today (which still contains more 688s than Virginias).
The US also doesn't have an equivalent land based missile to the DF41, a near 15 yrs old missile at this point. That point about SLBM more reflects the well known lack of priority into SSBN rather than tech capability.
To be clear, I think that "Improved Akula" is likely to be a lowball estimate in many respects. But as a lowball estimate, it's not a bad place to be. The next step up is Virginia/Seawolf/Yasen/Astute, i.e. there is only one more step up. I do find it interesting that we hear a lot of public fretting about China's advancements in surface combatants and other fields (even if it is disguised by subsequent copium about e.g. lack of experience),
I agree they're not bad, that China accept having vessels of similar capability as its current SSN backbone should be an indication of that.

What I most except to is that there is simply 0 need China would ever see the improved akula as an aspirational target for 2030, it wouldn't even be one in 2015. If that was the case, China would simply buy one. Or rather buy a Yasen. The 0 interest in Russian technology or platforms (beyond information expected to be shared between allies) imply low or non existent interest.
yet there is very little to suggest that USN is concerned about Chinese submarine capabilities (if anything, Constellation having only one helo and no bow sonar suggests they are still taking PLAN submarines rather lightly). Perhaps we are just awaiting 095/096 to prompt a western reassessment of these matters, much as Pr. 671RTMK Victor III and subsequent developments prompted alarm in western circles and a reassessment of Soviet submarine capabilities back in the day.
That is an odd assumption. US has invested in a larger overall fleet than China despite having a proportionally smaller economy. They have more twin helicopter DDGs. They've engaged in large SSN buildup. China also has several classes with just 1 helo, I don't see that as a sign of taking US submarines lightly.
 

BoraTas

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(if anything, Constellation having only one helo and no bow sonar suggests they are still taking PLAN submarines rather lightly).

Constellation is derived from the FREMM, an 11-year-old European platform. There is no FREMM configuration with 2 Seahawk-size helos. Americans significantly loaded the hull beyond what it was with other stuff. That's why Constellation has 1 helo hangar. It has more to do with the US failing to procure a frigate rather than PLAN.
 

Blitzo

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Actually the Kilo was severely upgraded with Project 636. And the Russian Navy seem to consider them still good enough to the point where they ordered several of these boats which are still being delivered. In preference to ordering the Lada or waiting until it is serially produced. Not that long ago the Project 636 was also exported to Algeria and Vietnam not to mention China.
Compared with the original Kilo it has a different propeller, diesel engine, and electronics. 5 posts were eliminated due to improved command systems automation. And it can fire the Kalibr instead of just torpedos.

Not all Akulas are the same either with the latest type being much quieter. And all Akulas were upgraded from the Granat to the Kalibr. The electronics are also likely upgraded.

It remains to be seen if the Type 095 will have more emphasis on Chinese technologies and design or still be done with Russian input. I expect the project to be mainly based around Chinese technologies including the rimless engine.

The Kilos of course have had improvements, which are better than the originals, though compared to other leading SSK classes less so.

As for the rest of what you wrote, they do not address or refute my underlying points.

In terms of SSNs based off indigenous technologies rather than Russian, we should already be at that point years ago with the successive 09III variants to the 09IIIA, let alone 09IIIB. 09V is far beyond it.

I will also say that there is no current expectation that 09V will use a rimless propeller, and also it is silly to use that as a benchmark or an indicator for how many "Russian" or "Chinese" technologies it uses.
If anything it is probably more useful for us to ignore the rimless propeller in general.

Constellation is derived from the FREMM, an 11-year-old European platform. There is no FREMM configuration with 2 Seahawk-size helos. Americans significantly loaded the hull beyond what it was with other stuff. That's why Constellation has 1 helo hangar. It has more to do with the US failing to procure a frigate rather than PLAN.

This is off topic but the Italian FREMM does have two hangars each able to fit a MH-60 sized helicopter.
 
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Jason_

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If you want a concrete example of what Blitzo is talking about, here is how the author concluded (incredibly) that the 09III has two reactors.
When the Type 093 first appeared in 2002-2003, most references suggested the submarine had a maximum power capability of 150 MW (thermal), which would demand two reactors given the PLANs basic mid-1990s technological capabilities. A number of individuals posting on line did not seem to appreciate this estimate and claimed a single reactor with the same power rating was in the second-generation submarines. If this claim were accurate, then the PLAN would really have no reason to seek Russian assistance for their third-generation boats; but that is exactly what occurred. (The author then points to some civilian nuclear power cooperations between China and Russia.)
 
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Blitzo

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If you want a concrete example of what Blitzo is talking about, here is how the author concluded (incredibly) that the 09III has two reactors.

Well, the 09III reactor situation (on the original class specifically) is actually one I am not sure about.

However the second part of what you wrote (the cooperation on civilian reactors and that it will be the exact type used on a nuclear submarine) is a bit of a reach.
 

Dante80

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The amount of concrete info we have about this subject is pitiful, given the secrecy and opacity at hand. Having read it, I think Carlson's paper is flawed basically because the assumptions he makes are based on preconceived notions about the state of Chinese R&D or the importance of technology transfer.

Having said that I'm not that ready to derive overall capability/performance estimates about an SS(B)N program in general from competence or TRL metrics in other industries (I'm not saying that others do here). I think that some things are not directly applicable (and we very well know that from other sectors). Yes, there are markers to observe as well as known-unknowns to estimate, but I'm not that comfortable due to the heavy obfuscation at hand due to the highly secret nature of the program.

I confess that this is just a personal take based on almost nothing.
 

Lethe

Captain
The US also doesn't have an equivalent land based missile to the DF41, a near 15 yrs old missile at this point. That point about SLBM more reflects the well known lack of priority into SSBN rather than tech capability.

I disagree. The 094/JL-2 pairing has major limitations as a deterrence asset, and there is a clear rationale for a larger missile with longer range and greater throw weight that allows the submarine equipped with that missile to exercise their deterrent role (i.e. hold targets across the United States at risk) from closer to home. I believe that China has not previously produced such a missile and submarine because it would've been calculated that, in order to achieve the desired characteristics using then-available technology, the resulting missile would've been enormous, perhaps 70-80 tons, which would in turn call for a submarine with significantly greater hull diameter than 094 which would in turn have required a new reactor design with impressive outputs. Basically, it would've been a Sino-Typhoon, and like Typhoon it would've been astonishingly expensive, while still inheriting the technical limitations of the 093/094 series. Advancements in Chinese rocket propellants (as embodied in the DF-41) now allow for the desired missile characteristics (chiefly range and payload) to be met with a much smaller missile, perhaps in the range of 50-55 tons, that is much more feasible to incorporate on a submarine. Meanwhile, the across-the-board advancements in submarine technology make the prospect of doing so much more appealing as an integrated deterrence capability. Hence 096/JL-3.

I agree they're not bad, that China accept having vessels of similar capability as its current SSN backbone should be an indication of that.

What I most except to is that there is simply 0 need China would ever see the improved akula as an aspirational target for 2030, it wouldn't even be one in 2015. If that was the case, China would simply buy one. Or rather buy a Yasen. The 0 interest in Russian technology or platforms (beyond information expected to be shared between allies) imply low or non existent interest.

I suspect there were limits to how much Russia was willing to share with China in these "strategically" sensitive areas in the past. I also suspect that China would still jump at the chance to get their hands on a Pr. 885M boat if that were even remotely possible, which it isn't for production reasons if nothing else. Yes, they leased an Akula to India, but then India in the medium-term was and remains much less plausible as either potential threat or competitor. As an aspirational target I would hope and expect that China would be aiming to at least match if not exceed the latest contemporary designs, i.e. Virginia Block III, Yasen, Astute. I don't know if that can be achieved, but I'm sure they aiming for it and I would not exclude the possibility.

That is an odd assumption. US has invested in a larger overall fleet than China despite having a proportionally smaller economy. They have more twin helicopter DDGs. They've engaged in large SSN buildup. China also has several classes with just 1 helo, I don't see that as a sign of taking US submarines lightly.

The example I gave of Constellation only accommodating one hangar and lacking bow sonar was probably a little cheeky, and I freely admit I made it mostly to link to previous discussions about the ideal number of helos for ASW combatants. Certainly it is a very relevant counter-observation that most of America's surface combatants (i.e. all the Ticos and Burkes) have dual helos. That said, I think my broader point regarding USN's apparent lack of concern re: Chinese submarine capabilities stands. The rise of China has prompted major American programs aimed more-or-less directly at countering what they view as a rising threat. The B-21 Raider program is probably the most significant example of this. Entire services such as the US Marine Corps are publicly and painfully restructuring in anticipation of a "Pacific conflict". Yet American public discourse about their submarine and anti-submarine capabilities, seems to be almost entirely driven by internal considerations such as maintenance backlogs. There appears to be little concern about the adequacy of existing platforms and systems like MH-60R, P-8I, Virginia, ASROC, Mk. 48 ADCAP, undersea surveillance networks, etc. to meet actual and anticipated advancements in China's submarine capabilities.
 
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ZeEa5KPul

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That said, I think my broader point regarding USN's apparent lack of concern re: Chinese submarine capabilities stands. The rise of China has prompted major American programs aimed more-or-less directly at countering what they view as a rising threat. The B-21 Raider program is probably the most significant example of this. Entire services such as the US Marine Corps are publicly and painfully restructuring in anticipation of a "Pacific conflict". Yet American public discourse about their submarine and anti-submarine capabilities, seems to be almost entirely driven by internal considerations such as maintenance backlogs. There appears to be little concern about the adequacy of existing platforms and systems like MH-60R, P-8I, Virginia, ASROC, Mk. 48 ADCAP, undersea surveillance networks, etc. to meet actual and anticipated advancements in China's submarine capabilities.
If the US defense establishment's view of present, let alone future, PLAN submarine and ASW capability is accurately reflected by a clown like Carlson, they are in for a very rude awakening.

The nonsense he wrote about the Huludao expansion should instantly disqualify him from being taken seriously as a commentator on anything to do with Chinese submarines.
 

Jason_

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That said, I think my broader point regarding USN's apparent lack of concern re: Chinese submarine capabilities stands. The rise of China has prompted major American programs aimed more-or-less directly at countering what they view as a rising threat. The B-21 Raider program is probably the most significant example of this. Entire services such as the US Marine Corps are publicly and painfully restructuring in anticipation of a "Pacific conflict".
Most of the US military has been redirected to fight the War on Terror and now requires a second redirection for "great power competition" missions. Submarine/ASW forces by their nature have always focused on great power competition so there is no restructuring.
Yet American public discourse about their submarine and anti-submarine capabilities, seems to be almost entirely driven by internal considerations such as maintenance backlogs. There appears to be little concern about the adequacy of existing platforms and systems like MH-60R, P-8I, Virginia, ASROC, Mk. 48 ADCAP, undersea surveillance networks, etc. to meet actual and anticipated advancements in China's submarine capabilities.
The US is clearly concerned. This Congression Research Service's
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for example suggests that the SSN(X) "will be designed to counter the growing threat posed by near peer adversary competition for undersea supremacy. It will provide greater speed, increased horizontal payload capacity (i.e. torpedo instead of VLS), improved acoustic superiority and non-acoustic signatures, and higher operational availability."
 

Blitzo

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I suspect there were limits to how much Russia was willing to share with China in these "strategically" sensitive areas in the past. I also suspect that China would still jump at the chance to get their hands on a Pr. 885M boat if that were even remotely possible, which it isn't for production reasons if nothing else. Yes, they leased an Akula to India, but then India in the medium-term was and remains much less plausible as either potential threat or competitor. As an aspirational target I would hope and expect that China would be aiming to at least match if not exceed the latest contemporary designs, i.e. Virginia Block III, Yasen, Astute. I don't know if that can be achieved, but I'm sure they aiming for it and I would not exclude the possibility.

The idea of China buying 885M is a bit of a counterfactual that's difficult to even talk about without being specific, but I would say that China would be interested in having a look at it but I suspect they would not be interested in buying it as an operational platform simply because whatever benefits it may have does not outweigh sustaining a massive support system for a new class of expensive, bespoke foreign nuclear submarine, given the rate of development of their own domestic programs.


The example I gave of Constellation only accommodating one hangar and lacking bow sonar was probably a little cheeky, and I freely admit I made it mostly to link to previous discussions about the ideal number of helos for ASW combatants. Certainly it is a very relevant counter-observation that most of America's surface combatants (i.e. all the Ticos and Burkes) have dual helos. That said, I think my broader point regarding USN's apparent lack of concern re: Chinese submarine capabilities stands. The rise of China has prompted major American programs aimed more-or-less directly at countering what they view as a rising threat. The B-21 Raider program is probably the most significant example of this. Entire services such as the US Marine Corps are publicly and painfully restructuring in anticipation of a "Pacific conflict". Yet American public discourse about their submarine and anti-submarine capabilities, seems to be almost entirely driven by internal considerations such as maintenance backlogs. There appears to be little concern about the adequacy of existing platforms and systems like MH-60R, P-8I, Virginia, ASROC, Mk. 48 ADCAP, undersea surveillance networks, etc. to meet actual and anticipated advancements in China's submarine capabilities.

Eh, "USN's apparent lack of concern re Chinese submarine capabilities" doesn't really stand, in fact it shouldn't have been made as a point to begin with.

1: the USN's (or US military overall's) level of concern towards current and future "PLA capability in XYZ domain" is not necessarily reflective of reality. I of course have respect for actual US intelligence services and I imagine they probably have a grasp of future PLA direction and procurement and scale, but that doesn't mean it will influence the people in charge of making procurement decisions. We have seen in multiple domains where PLA procurement and development of new capabilities have caused public alarm and surprise at their speed (surface combatants primarily being the most relevant one here), and it's not like the USN was actively retooling their entire strategic procurement decision in anticipation of that.

2: you seem to believe that the quality of PLAN submarines will determine the USN's evolution of its ASW capabilities. Chinese submarine capabilities instead should of course reflect both quality and quantity, as well as the relevant domains in which they'll operate. Chinese SSKs are already very competitive and world class, but they are unlikely to operate outside of the first island chain in any meaningful way in wartime -- in other words, in terms of ASW, the ability of the USN's ASW capabilities to target Chinese SSKs would be dependent on how the rest of the multi-domain conflict in air and sea domains in and around the first island chain goes. As for Chinese SSNs -- the PLAN has very few SSNs to begin with; it is only fairly recently that they have something like their SSNs approach and meet the two digit mark, and even then many of them until fairly recently could be considered even "somewhat competitive". Even if tomorrow the PLAN launches their first 09V and let's say it is hypothetically as capable as the best (or superior) as what the USN has, unless the PLAN can massively and rapidly scale up production and commissioning of them (say, produce 60 of them in the span of 5-6 years), the USN already has such an extensive ASW capability that they'll have enough leeway to adjust strategy and carry out procurement of its own. Heck, for something like the MH-60R (the USN's primary ASW helicopter and arguably the world's most premier and capable ASW helicopter type), the USN actually bought too many of them as assessed back in 2019 due to cutbacks in the LCS program, so it's not like they are at a deficit or stretched for platforms -- and similarly in terms of ASW MPAs the US has the largest and most capable fleet in the world as well.
That said, even the USN's next SSN(X) is oriented more for hunting other nation's submarines in deep water rather than being more "multirole" (yet still very capable of course) like the Virginias, so clearly they are recognizing there will be competition in the future (though one may argue this is just the USN wanting to keep up the scale of their advantage).

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.... all of which is to say, the USN's "lack of concern" towards current and more importantly future Chinese nuclear submarine capabilities is not useful to us for actually projecting current or future Chinese nuclear submarine capabilities, and more importantly the USN's existing ASW capabilities are already so extensive, that a USN reaction to current or future China's nuclear submarine capabilities would be as much about quantity as about quality.
We are at this stage only interested in talking about the quality/technology/competitiveness of a future Chinese nuclear submarine class (09V and by extension 09VI), and the speed of its procurement and scale will be as important as how individually capable it is.
 
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