asif iqbal
Lieutenant General
A boomer is a very expensive peice of kit !
09III/09IV (093/094) Nuclear Submarine Thread
- Thread starter SinoSoldier
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Last, new infos,
Now almost sure the 413, only 093A without VLS is in service from 2015 launched in 12/2012.
Seems 414 the first new 093B with VLS in service and 415 - 418 in construction maybe the 4 in service for 2019/20 one by year about.
New definitely replacing 091 so a fleet of 8 SSNs now 5.
093 : 407, 408
094 : 409 - 412
Now almost sure the 413, only 093A without VLS is in service from 2015 launched in 12/2012.
Seems 414 the first new 093B with VLS in service and 415 - 418 in construction maybe the 4 in service for 2019/20 one by year about.
New definitely replacing 091 so a fleet of 8 SSNs now 5.
093 : 407, 408
094 : 409 - 412
The number of SSNs is dropping to a low of 41.
Theoretically 18 could be on patrol at any time yes. But because of transit distances / global responsibilities and CSG escorting, my understanding is that currently only 6 are available for independent operations and are forward deployed.
Yes, the US could surge 36-odd submarines, but given the delay and distances involved, they wouldn't be in time to track all 13 operating Chinese SSNs that decided to surge past the first island chain.
By 2025, I would expect it to be obvious that China has the economic capacity and also a requirement to build a fleet of 60+ SSNs. That is achievable based on 2 boats per year.
Plus there would be a fleet of conventional SSKs as well
Right now there are:
39 LA Class boats in service
03 Sea wolf Class boats in service
12 Virginia class boats in service
That's a total of 54 active SSNs.
There are some projections saying that the Navy will get down to 41 SSNs at some time in the future...but that is all going to depend on the administration in office.
Trump is calling for an increase to 350 ships...which tells me he will not let it fall in that manner.
But, nonetheless, right now there are 54 active US Navy SSNs in service.
That is simple logistics and planning. The US Navy SSN fleet could easily plan and track all 13 Chinese subs if it so desired.
Not SSNs...not a chance of that number...or do I know of any plans at any time in the future for the PLAN to have 60 SSNs.
if you are including SSKs, then yes...but their utility in the open sea, blue water, is very limited because of speed. They are very good in the littorals and at choke points...or if they know when another naval vessel is going to be at a certain time and place so they can lie in wait for them.
But in any heavy conflict, on the high seas, the SSNs are going to have the huge advantage.
Anyhow, I was speaking specifically to nuclear subs.
antiterror13
Brigadier
Why would China need 60+ SSNs ? ... I'd thought 30 very modern SSNs (093B, 095 or later) would be enough plus 50+ very modern SSK (Yuan or later). China is not like the US which has global "responsiblities" and I don't see any signs China would want to emulate the US.
SSN is very expensive business ... and most China's objectives can be met by modern SSK (Yuan or later) especially in first and second island chain .... why would you need a a rifle to kill a mosquito
I would say SSKs are better suited within the First Island Chain. SSNs are better in the deeper waters in the Second Island Chain which is also further away from ready resupply from the Chinese mainland.
And in order for China to secure the waters of the Western Pacific to the Second Island Chain - China would need sufficient SSNs of it own to counter all the subs that the US could bring to the Western Pacific. Hence China will eventually build 60+ SSNs
And in order for China to secure the waters of the Western Pacific to the Second Island Chain - China would need sufficient SSNs of it own to counter all the subs that the US could bring to the Western Pacific. Hence China will eventually build 60+ SSNs
@Jeff Head
If China surges 13 SSNs in the Pacific, I struggle to see how the USN would have enough SSNs and other assets within 2days sailing time of the First Island Chain to track all the submarines.
Plus we will likely never see a shipbuilding plan ever being released by the Chinese Navy, but that doesn't mean they don't have one.
Hence I'm speculating that a reasonable target would be 1 conventional submarine per year and 2 nuclear submarines per year, but a relatively demilitarized Chinese economy in 2025 could easily support a much higher construction rate if required.
In the long run (circa 2045), that would see the conventional submarine force decrease to 30-odd boats but an increase to 60-odd nuclear submarines.
In such a world, it should be feasible for numerous Chinese SSNs to operate untracked in the Pacific after passing the First Island Chain.
If China surges 13 SSNs in the Pacific, I struggle to see how the USN would have enough SSNs and other assets within 2days sailing time of the First Island Chain to track all the submarines.
Plus we will likely never see a shipbuilding plan ever being released by the Chinese Navy, but that doesn't mean they don't have one.
Hence I'm speculating that a reasonable target would be 1 conventional submarine per year and 2 nuclear submarines per year, but a relatively demilitarized Chinese economy in 2025 could easily support a much higher construction rate if required.
In the long run (circa 2045), that would see the conventional submarine force decrease to 30-odd boats but an increase to 60-odd nuclear submarines.
In such a world, it should be feasible for numerous Chinese SSNs to operate untracked in the Pacific after passing the First Island Chain.
The US will know about them as they leave port and as they transit out to sea.
At this moment, they are probably onl;y keeping any real tabs on the Type 093 SSNs. At a later date, if the USN feels that the number of subs requires it, they will develop a plan to do it...and they have neough submmarines and other assets to do so.
I never implied that they do not have one. To the contrary, they most certainly do. I simply indicated that 60 SSNs is a very, very unlikely number for the PRC in the PLAN they have.
I have a great deal of respect for what the PLAN has done over the last 10-15 years in their planning and the eecution of their plans...and have said so many, many times right here on SD.
One area they have had trouble in developing the newer technologies has been for their SSN ambitions. I believe they will overcomes this and develop more sophisticated and capable subs...but that takes time.
When they find a sub class and start building them like they are doing the Type 054As or the Type 052Ds, then we will know that they themselves feel that they have arrived at a type of parity.
Perhaps the Type 095 will be it...perhaps later.
We shall see.
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I find it highly doubtful the PLAN will be able to reach parity with the US in sub tech with the 095. The one thing that China has going for it is that the successor class to the Virginia is not slated to come online until the 2040s, which will give China plenty of time to catch up to Virginia levels with a "097", possibly even by the middle of the next decade.
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My point was not mean to be that the PLAN would achieve full parity with the Type 095, but that they would achieve something they were satisfied with that can help counter the US.
Something that from their perspective will suffice.
The Akula subs that the Russians developed were not as good as their Western counterparts IMHO, but they were good enough to pose a real danger and a threat...and particularly in any numbers.
The Chinese will be satisfied to reach something like that and build them in some numbers while they take the time to close the gap with a follow on design, which as you say, given the schedule for the Virginia's will be drawn out several decades.
Of course...the Virginia's will be improved throughout that time period. We already know what all the Block V boats will add...sort of like the three Flights of LA Class subs. The improved LA Class (688i), Flight III, IMHO, was in essence a new class and a full generation ahead of its original namesake...though they still called them LA Class.
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