09III/09IV (093/094) Nuclear Submarine Thread

[Blitzo]

I agree that Carlson here was talking about 095, but I suspect the impetus for this article came from someone in intelligence community leaking to WSJ something along the line that Chinese subs are getting really quiet.

I think it is unlikely for WSJ to write an article like this with first line as "China is on the verge of becoming a world-class submarine power, with new technology and a bigger, better fleet that is gaining on the U.S. and its allies" unless someone is telling them this and since 095 isn't going to be inducted in a reasonable number until end of this decade, I think they are referring to 093Bs that are joining service now. Unless 093B noise level from initial sea trials and such have reached a certain level, there is just no reason to be talking about it this early.

Reading the character of the article, I somewhat disagree.

I think their idea of China "gaining" is due to two things:
1. China producing more nuclear submarines than the US is
2. Chinese submarines are expected to get quieter -- but guided by Carlson's views

The article doesn't mention 09IIIBs either by name, or indirectly.

If anything I think the overall argument is one of bemoaning the state of US nuclear submarine production compared to the increase we can see of the PLAN, and tossing the PLAN a bone by recognizing that Chinese submarines are getting better. But if we were to identify what Carlson meant by "really quiet" I suspect he would again say "Akula I level" for 09V.

 

[ACuriousPLAFan]

Screenshots from a video of a 093B SSN sailing nearby at sea. Posted by @鼎盛DDX on Weibo.

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Video on Weibo where the above screenshots are taken from:

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[tphuang]

Reading the character of the article, I somewhat disagree.

I think their idea of China "gaining" is due to two things:
1. China producing more nuclear submarines than the US is
2. Chinese submarines are expected to get quieter -- but guided by Carlson's views

The article doesn't mention 09IIIBs either by name, or indirectly.

If anything I think the overall argument is one of bemoaning the state of US nuclear submarine production compared to the increase we can see of the PLAN, and tossing the PLAN a bone by recognizing that Chinese submarines are getting better. But if we were to identify what Carlson meant by "really quiet" I suspect he would again say "Akula I level" for 09V.

I would totally agree that's what Carlson meant. And the other public source they got probably has something similar on their mind.

But it seems unlikely to me that people they interviewed would have the clout to lead the reporter to write such an article. It's most likely this reporter wanted to write on this topic and then interviewed people that can answer questions on record.

And we can all speculate here on why this reporter wanted to write on this topic. Aside from that Bloomberg article about 093 being loud (which came out in late 2000s), I don't recall any other other MSM articles on Chinese nuclear submarines out of the blue. But I did miss a few years there, so maybe there was an article that I missed. This doesn't seem like the kind of topic that would get anyone interested.

So, based on that 093/Bloomberg experience, my theory is that this is due to someone with more knowledge tipping the reporter out.

 

[Blitzo]

I would totally agree that's what Carlson meant. And the other public source they got probably has something similar on their mind.

But it seems unlikely to me that people they interviewed would have the clout to lead the reporter to write such an article. It's most likely this reporter wanted to write on this topic and then interviewed people that can answer questions on record.

And we can all speculate here on why this reporter wanted to write on this topic. Aside from that Bloomberg article about 093 being loud (which came out in late 2000s), I don't recall any other other MSM articles on Chinese nuclear submarines out of the blue. But I did miss a few years there, so maybe there was an article that I missed. This doesn't seem like the kind of topic that would get anyone interested.

So, based on that 093/Bloomberg experience, my theory is that this is due to someone with more knowledge tipping the reporter out.

Well, I think we'll have to agree to disagree on this one.

My read of the mainstream media reporting on chinese nuclear submarines is that in the last couple of years there is a growing recognition that Chinese nuclear submarine production is increasing, and also a recognition that US nuclear submarine production is not as fast as they need.

However I see absolutely no indication from what they've written that there is any new recognition of the actual qualitative capability of 09IIIB or what 09V is likely to be.

If any of these articles actually mentioned 09IIIB by name as a newly capable submarine then it would change things, but so far it just seems to be reheating the same story that's been circulated in the last couple of years.