China can do pretty much everything and ensure parity with the US if necessary. Their economy is strong enough. Not that I think wasting money on supercarriers like the US does is a good idea.
09III/09IV (093/094) Nuclear Submarine Thread
- Thread starter SinoSoldier
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Scanned photos of a 093/A SSN and 094/A SSBN sailing together. Posted by @边城扫图 on Weibo.
Speaking of which, the generally-accepted concensus on PLAN SSNs in service as of present in terms of equivalence of general capabilities to the US counterparts based on publicly-available information:
093 = Sturgeon
093A = Early/mid-Los Angeles
093B = Late-Los Angeles
095 = Early-Virginia
Needless to say, China's future SSNs will definitely be heading towards the way of the Seawolfs, but adapted for the 21st-century naval warfare. This is also the way forward for the American SSN(X)s envisioned by the Pentagon.
In the meantime, given that the US has decided on delaying the start of first SSN(X) construction into the early-2040s in favor of focusing on Block 5/6 Virginias, this should provide some additional time for China to play catch up with the US in the high seas' underwater domain - Namely, through the 095 and its further iteration/development (095A/X?).
Hopefully, by the late-2030s, the 095/A/X?s that Huludao are expected to build will be at least near-peer (if not outright peer) to the Block 5/6 Virginias that the Newport News and Electric Boat are expected to roll out at that time. This would hopefully enable China to be close to (if not on) the same starting line as the US for their respective next-gen SSNs, namely the 097 (nominal designation) for the PLAN and the SSN(X) for the USN.
Counting from now (2024), that's ~16 more years to go.
Plus, on the discussion of 093B-vs-095 construction after 2025, perhaps this should the optimal path to go with:
| 2021 - 2025 (14FYP) | - Growing 093B production - Pilot 095 production |
| 2026 - 2030 (15FYP) | - Stable 093B production - Growing 095 production |
| 2031 - 2035 (16FYP) | - Stable 095/X production - Reducing 093B production |
| 2036 - 2040 (17FYP) | - Stable 095/X production |
| 2041 - 2045 (18FYP) | - Stable 095/X production - Pilot 097 production |
| 2046 - 2050 (19FYP) | - Growing 097 production - Reducing 095/X production |
| 2051 - 2055 (20FYP) | - Stable 097 production |
The points are:
1. While the 093B is based on a mature and proven platform with 10+ years of active service history, its overall capabilities are purported to be on the same level as the late-Los Angeles, of which the last boat was commissioned in 1996. With 35 years of expected service life, the last Los Angeles boat will be retired no later than the early-2030s.
This means that despite being a cheaper and readily-available-for-mass-production platform than the 095/X, it would be less incentivized for China to keep building more 093Bs well into the 2030s. This is especially true once the 095 has been operationally tested and approved for serial production by the end of this decade.
2. The 095s (and its further iteration/development) are expected to be on par with the Virginias across all blocks, going forward. Given that the US plans to procure more Block 5 and 6 Virginias until the late-2030s, it actually makes more sense for the 095/Xs to have a much longer, sustained construction run than the 093Bs - That is, until the 097 is ready for construction spool-up into the late-2040s.
Of course, this is just my view on the matter.
Yes. I remember there were indications that at least some of the 09-IIIAs used natural circulation reactors, and the pump jet is reasonably clear from satellite images. The only real shortcoming of the 09-IIIB is the limited internal volume to mount rafting.
The 093Bs are highly expected to have both natural circulation reactor and pump-jet propulsion, as per @horobeyo's analysis from February 2023:
Given that now is 2024, the 093Bs having at least some technologies that are ahead of the late-Los Angeles of the 1980s to mid-1990s is definitely certain, with the rest being largely on-par.
However, as of present, I am not as confident that the 093B will be directly-comparable to the early-Virginias, if that's what you are implying. Plus, any significant modifications/upgrades to the SSN will still be constrained (if not outrught hampered) by the original design of the hull itself.
Hence, having even more modifications done to the latter boats of the 093B could actually be less worth the effort and resources than just building more brand-new 095s.
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I'm only replying because I was quoted -- IMO it's a bit too early to predict beyond 09Vs considering we don't even know the full characteristics of the 09Vs, even if it's just based on expected procurement timelines. IMO anything beyond 2030-2035 in terms of procurement of any kind of platform at this stage can be considered to be fiction.
I think 09IIIB being somewhere between 688i and early VA is not entirely implausible, in terms of acoustic quietening, but it may depend on which speed profiles one is thinking of. Having a wide confidence interval is probably prudent.
Where 09V will be in terms of quietening is very much an open question and a lot of it depends on the actual size/diameter of its pressure hull.
I would not be surprised if Type 095 ended up being more quiet than the Virginia submarines. Today you can do computer modeling of a lot of things and quietness of ship structures is another of those things you can simulate.
We also know that China was working on rimless propulsion and removing the long mechanical drive shaft, replacing it with electric motors. That is what the US is supposedly going to use in the Columbia SSBNs. Electric motors.
We also know that China was working on rimless propulsion and removing the long mechanical drive shaft, replacing it with electric motors. That is what the US is supposedly going to use in the Columbia SSBNs. Electric motors.
Rimless propulsion? I assume you are getting thinking about a rimdrive, because a "rimless" propulsion would just be a normal unshielded propeller (i.e.: lacking a rim).
In any case the rimdrive part is not true, at least not in the way that it's been incorrectly repeated over the years.
Admiral Ma multiple years ago was featured on CCTV talking about electric propulsion and mentioned how electric propulsionwould be applied on future nuclear submarines, however he did not say anything about a rimdrive. Instead that was incorrectly interpreted by people because there happened to be a very small subscale rimdrive test article in the lab they did the interview in. However there was never any statement by him or others about applying a rimdrive for future nuclear submarines.
Of course, utilizing electric propulsion on nuclear submarines with a propulsor shaft will still be able to achieve quietening gains relative to a nuclear submarine lacking in electric propulsion, because the electric motor can turn the shaft itself without needing reduction gearing which is a source of noise.
If 09V does feature electric propulsion, that will likely offer a source of further gains in quietening due to not needing reduction gearing. However there is no indication to expect it or any other forthcoming PLAN nuclear submarine to feature a rimdrive.
Back in the day I even wrote a whole piece about it cause it was such a problem
Sub noise levels heavily scale with engineering precision. Japan, which is near peer to China in that field, despite being largely underdeveloped militarily otherwise, still created very competitive conventional subs.
For SSN, reactor is a separate hurdle, but hardly that signficant either.
The basic 093 hull is a contemporary of the Los Angeles class. But while US gave up on upgrading them, instead opting for a new hull for the past 2000s era, China just kept upgrading until they felt ready (probably with the Huludao facilities).
The new US hulls (seawolf, virginia) are probably marginally quieter than latest 093 because they were purpose built for new gen technologies, but the gap may not be so large at all, because while US stopped upgrading 688is, China continued to upgrade 093Bs, even to 2024s standard.
093Bs are less 688i equivalents and more "what if there was no Virginia and LAs were upgraded until today" equivalents.