09III/09IV (093/094) Nuclear Submarine Thread

[SpicySichuan]

Well 12,000 km (if that is indeed an accurate range) is right at 7,450 miles.

At that range, offshore from Shanghai (on the far east coast of China), the distance to Raleigh NC, or any place south and east of there (Georgia, Florida) would be out of range. Any place to the East and South of Austin TX (including Houston, New Orleans, etc.) would also be out of range.

China has plenty of good mountain ranges for deep nuclear blast-proof tunnels, so when it comes to nuclear deterrence toward the U.S., China's comparative advantage is tunnel-based mobile ICBMs (like DF-31A and DF-41). However, when it comes to Russia, if it is already too big of a risk for Virginias to enter the Bohai Sea, I doubted the Akulas and Yasens would try. If either the Russians or the U.S. try really hard to hunt down the five 094s, there could be an incentive among the Central Military Commission members to "use them, or lose them," increasing the likelihood of a premature nuclear exchange. Also, it seems like the South China Sea is another area for the 094s to operate it, and Russian subs have not likely patrolled the South China Sea since 1991. >>>///*** Removed highly inflammatory, Us vs Them comment. (SD has rules against such conversations regarding nuclear war between nations.

READ THE RULES! >>>///***

 

[tphuang]

As I said in the other thread, it's good to read up on these things a little bit. For example, if you actually read my link, you would know that all of the active 094s are in service at South Sea Fleet.

 

[Brumby]

China has plenty of good mountain ranges for deep nuclear blast-proof tunnels, so when it comes to nuclear deterrence toward the U.S., China's comparative advantage is tunnel-based mobile ICBMs (like DF-31A and DF-41). However, when it comes to Russia, if it is already too big of a risk for Virginias to enter the Bohai Sea, I doubted the Akulas and Yasens would try. If either the Russians or the U.S. try really hard to hunt down the five 094s, there could be an incentive among the Central Military Commission members to "use them, or lose them," increasing the likelihood of a premature nuclear exchange. Also, it seems like the South China Sea is another area for the 094s to operate it, and Russian subs have not likely patrolled the South China Sea since 1991, so I say the type 094s is an Ivan deterrent (just in case Russians decide to pick a fight with China by persecuting ethnic Chinese living in Russia's Far East). Btw, forget about that I said about EU. The JL-2 is purely an anti-Russian weapon. When launched from Bohai Sea, the 7,400km ranged JL-2 covers Moscow, St. Petersburg, Kiev, Crimean, etc., but not Paris and London.

In my view you are making a lot of speculations about areas of operation (submarine missions) which tends to be least known and on policies and conditions (nuclear usage) which are purposely kept opaque.

 

[Miragedriver]

Yu-3C and Y-6 Torpedo

Back to bottling my Grenache

 

[Brumby]

Do you expect the 094 to sail beyond China's coast? So who are China's nuclear-armed neighbors? I retract the "purely anti-Russian" phrase, but the JL-2 is not going to be an anti-U.S. deterrence, unless China can either increase the range of the JL-2, or decrease the noise level of the 094. As with the JL-2 range, the Pentagon for year believed that the former has a range of 7,400km.

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You are right on the two points. In order to be a credible deterrence, the 094 need to reduce the noise level because by modern standard it is very noisy. The Chinese will continue to work on this and we should be see the extend of the improvement in the Type 096. Likewise, work will continue in the extending the range of the JL-2. These things can only be done incrementally and will need time.

In my view, the type 093 at least should move out beyond the first island chain and no doubt they will be tracked easily. The main objectives are to gain experience from extended missions and to map the terrain for future use when they have a quieter platform. I believe they have started patrolling as far as to the Hawaii islands. I think the type 094 will stay within the first island chain because of their noise level as they are too vulnerable outside the first chain. The downside is that the launch window from within the first chain is narrower as opposed to anywhere in the Pacific viz a viz BMD shield.

 

[thunderchief]

In my view, the type 093 at least should move out beyond the first island chain and no doubt they will be tracked easily. .

Not necessarily and not so easily . During Cold War Soviets regularly sabotaged an spoofed NATO efforts to create sensor net (SOSUS) in GUIK gap . These are international waters so everybody has right of passage . I'm certain that PLAN would not allow to be bottled up so easily in first island chain, especially they would not allow any permanent structure that would control movement of their subs . Therefore, in case of war, any OPFOR would need to do ASW work from scratch , and in area near first island chain it would not be easy, becasue of land-based Chinese assets in the area .

 

[Brumby]

Not necessarily and not so easily . During Cold War Soviets regularly sabotaged an spoofed NATO efforts to create sensor net (SOSUS) in GUIK gap . These are international waters so everybody has right of passage . I'm certain that PLAN would not allow to be bottled up so easily in first island chain, especially they would not allow any permanent structure that would control movement of their subs . Therefore, in case of war, any OPFOR would need to do ASW work from scratch , and in area near first island chain it would not be easy, becasue of land-based Chinese assets in the area .

No doubt they will be repaired and so the game continues. The difference though is that the type 093/094 because of their noise level, the US is less dependent on fixed sensors in tracking them. The ocean condition outside the first island chain is such that their depth is more conducive to long range sensors unlike within the first island chain where the water is shallower.

 

[Jeff Head]

I deleted a bunch of posts and responses to them that are not on topic.

This thread is not about alliances, who is whose friend, who broke what alliances...or about the Chinese subs being specifically a weapon against this or that nation.

STAY ON TOPIC.

DO NOT GET NATIONALISTIC OR POLITICAL.

DO NOT RESPOND TO THIS MODERATION

 

[thunderchief]

No doubt they will be repaired and so the game continues. The difference though is that the type 093/094 because of their noise level, the US is less dependent on fixed sensors in tracking them. The ocean condition outside the first island chain is such that their depth is more conducive to long range sensors unlike within the first island chain where the water is shallower.

First island chain is bigger then GUIK gap, and is closer to China then GUIK gap to USSR. therefore, it will be almost impossible to operate continuous sensor net if China wants to stop that . Also, Type 093 is not so loud as you make it, it should be at least equal (or better) acoustically to Victor III class . I agree they would not stand much chance attacking US carrier groups (talking about version without VLS ) but there are other targets in the area .

 

[tphuang]

First island chain is bigger then GUIK gap, and is closer to China then GUIK gap to USSR. therefore, it will be almost impossible to operate continuous sensor net if China wants to stop that . Also, Type 093 is not so loud as you make it, it should be at least equal (or better) acoustically to Victor III class . I agree they would not stand much chance attacking US carrier groups (talking about version without VLS ) but there are other targets in the area .

Victor III actually apparently got significantly better in acoustic levels in the later constructs. And USN have put the noise level of 093 not only worse than Victor III but also 094 and not that much better than 091. We will see how good these new 093 builds are in a few years time.