09III/09IV (093/094) Nuclear Submarine Thread

[Tam]

I kind of feel that Mr. Sutton has been engaging with increasing levels of click bait as of late, which bloggers and people engaged in social media tend to get.

 

[AndrewS]

HI Sutton, the submarine expert who works for Naval News (not sure if he is still a staff member), believed these images to be the pre-assembled parts of the new Type 95 Sui class SSN. The article below is dated from February.

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This is the analysis Sutton offered to support this conclusion:

"The hull section is approximately 30-32 meters long and roughly 11-12 meters across. This points to the new Type-095 and Type-096 boats. The other possibility is an improved version of the current Type-093 Shang-class. This would logically be the Type-093B cruise-missile optimized version. This is expected to feature vertical launch tubes similar to the Russian Yasen class. These will allow it to carry more YJ-18 cruise missiles.

However the approximate measurements are making the completely new classes a safer bet at this stage.

These new classes will be more advanced than the Type-093, with increased levels of stealth. The Type-095 in particular may become very relevant if the PLAN increases its prescience in the Indian Ocean."

Thought this might be interesting to some.

With a module length of 30-32m, this implies that final assembly will comprise 4 modules in total.
That's similar to the updated Virginia SSN construction method for the Block II boats

However, there might be 5 modules in total, if there is a VPM plug like the latest Virginia Block V

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There have been previous discussions speculating that the vast increase in assembly hall capacity (2 brand new halls with space for up to 20 SSNs to be assembled) might actually mean more work done in the Assembly Hall rather than the Fabrication Halls

But modules of 30m length argue against this

 

[AndrewS]

Following on from the module length of 30-32m, that implies module assembly times similar to the Virginia SSN.
Call it 8-18 months depending on the boat, and with space for 12+8 boats in the 2 assembly halls

So I still expect a production ramp up to an absolute bare minimum of 3 SSNs per year
And I wouldn't be surprised if they ended up with a much higher production rate

 

[Andy1974]

What I don’t understand about these new halls is why are they not covering up the rails, and thus exposing the modules as they move between? Do they want theses to be exposed to satellites?

 

[Maikeru]

What I don’t understand about these new halls is why are they not covering up the rails, and thus exposing the modules as they move between? Do they want theses to be exposed to satellites?

Perhaps they move the modules mostly when there is no satellite cover? Not sure how long they take to move.

 

[Mirabo]

HI Sutton, the submarine expert who works for Naval News (not sure if he is still a staff member), believed these images to be the pre-assembled parts of the new Type 95 Sui class SSN. The article below is dated from February.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

This is the analysis Sutton offered to support this conclusion:

"The hull section is approximately 30-32 meters long and roughly 11-12 meters across. This points to the new Type-095 and Type-096 boats. The other possibility is an improved version of the current Type-093 Shang-class. This would logically be the Type-093B cruise-missile optimized version. This is expected to feature vertical launch tubes similar to the Russian Yasen class. These will allow it to carry more YJ-18 cruise missiles.

However the approximate measurements are making the completely new classes a safer bet at this stage.

These new classes will be more advanced than the Type-093, with increased levels of stealth. The Type-095 in particular may become very relevant if the PLAN increases its prescience in the Indian Ocean."

Thought this might be interesting to some.

If the module is 11-12 meters across, then it isn't indicative of a 095 under construction. In fact, much the opposite. One of the rumors we heard was that the 095 will be partially single-hulled, and 11-12m on the stern doesn't fit the bill assuming that rumor is true. Pretty much everything is still up in the air regarding submarines so it's best to just sit and wait before jumping to conclusions. Even Sutton has been a bit too lenient with his research as of late, all the more reason to take his articles with a pinch of salt.

 

[gelgoog]

In an effort to come up with news he sometimes writes articles based on the flimsiest of evidence and makes wild extrapolations I agree.
It has become worse since he became a regular contributor to those news sites.
Still better than a lot of other journalists like David Axe or Minnie Chan I suppose.

 

[5unrise]

I've seen some articles from David Axe and I got to say they were not very analytical. However, got to keep in mind he is probably writing for the general public, so got to oversimplify and generalize a bit. Probably the same can be said about Minnie Chan. I read some of her articles on SCMP, and she basically says the same thing as mainstream western media, sometimes line by line.

 

[lcloo]

Don't read too much into the hull design, the key is the power plant.

 

[Tam]

That looks suspiciously like natural circulation.