Yes...and a good point.
The Type 056 are much more capable and more modern (of course).
I expect something on the order of over 60 Type 056s will be built, but probably nor more than 75 or 80.
Time will tell...in the end, time tells all.
056 class FFL/corvette
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The Type 056 are much more capable and more modern (of course).
I expect something on the order of over 60 Type 056s will be built, but probably nor more than 75 or 80.
Time will tell...in the end, time tells all.
Part of me wants to agree with you. The other part of me believes they will replace 037s with 056s at almost 1:1 ratio, because the two ships require almost the same amount of total crew: 037 is 70, and 056 is 78. That is to say, if the replacement ratio is 2:1, we will see about 7000 navy crews losing jobs. Just something to think about.
Remember, they will be expanding the size of the rest of their surface fleet too -- namely destroyers, frigates -- in coming years, and that 7000 extra personnel would quite easily find new positions.
037 takes very little training and 056 takes a lot more training to use. There are a lot of new ships coming online with PLAN that will require large number of personnel. I don't think loosing jobs is what you should be thinking about here. I think around 40 will get produced.
Hehehe...good.
A little old fashioned difference we can measure against.
I say up to 60. Tphuang says 40.
Time will tell and we can (in the future) come back and see.
LOL! My 60 may be a tad high, but I still think it is possible.
If I may make a rough analogy:
056 = J-8
054A/X = J-10
052C/D/X = Flankers
055 = J-20
If the PLAN can afford it I am sure they would love to have a large core force of 054A/X and 052C/D/X but the recent surprise troop reduction shows the PLA overall has a tighter belt than their annual percentage budget increases would suggest.
Specifically the PLAN's development may have been spread thin pursuing niche projects across the board from hovercraft to carriers. With the choice not to modify the latest 071 build I think is a sign the PLAN may be re-prioritizing to focus on building their core generalist surface combatant force: corvettes, frigates, and destroyers.
The 056 is a cheap stepping stone but as with the J-8 it is likely a stopgap barely meeting the PLAN's needs while new systems with significant improvements in capability are fast coming online. It also only serves a "sentry" role effective only within the first island chain. Due to these limitations I think the PLAN would rather build more 054A/X or 052C/D/X instead of more 056 but I think 54x in the class makes sense:
NSF - 12x
ESF - 12x
ECS - 6x
SSF - 12x
SCS - 12x
056 = J-8
054A/X = J-10
052C/D/X = Flankers
055 = J-20
If the PLAN can afford it I am sure they would love to have a large core force of 054A/X and 052C/D/X but the recent surprise troop reduction shows the PLA overall has a tighter belt than their annual percentage budget increases would suggest.
Specifically the PLAN's development may have been spread thin pursuing niche projects across the board from hovercraft to carriers. With the choice not to modify the latest 071 build I think is a sign the PLAN may be re-prioritizing to focus on building their core generalist surface combatant force: corvettes, frigates, and destroyers.
The 056 is a cheap stepping stone but as with the J-8 it is likely a stopgap barely meeting the PLAN's needs while new systems with significant improvements in capability are fast coming online. It also only serves a "sentry" role effective only within the first island chain. Due to these limitations I think the PLAN would rather build more 054A/X or 052C/D/X instead of more 056 but I think 54x in the class makes sense:
NSF - 12x
ESF - 12x
ECS - 6x
SSF - 12x
SCS - 12x
I'm not sure about that -- it all depends on where that troop reduction is done. I imagine the Army and a lot of the bureaucracy and administration behind the Chinese military will suffer the vast majority of the troop reduction. The nature of China's military missions has already dramatically shifted from a land war to a naval-air war, and lots of inefficiencies have been exposed in recent years, so this troop reduction has long been expected.
If anything I expect the Navy and Air Force to experience boosts in absolute personnel numbers relative to previous years, even though the Chinese military overall will experience a reduction.
I'm not sure if the Chinese Navy development has been "spread thin" -- but I do think they are definitely realizing that some capabilities are probably not as important as others.
I wouldn't also try to extrapolate too much from the latest 071, the fact that it doesn't feature any meaningful external upgrades could be because they are intending to field upgrades on the next batch of 071s if they are produced, or maybe that they don't view a need to upgrade their LPD design... it's still early days yet.
I wouldn't call the 056 class a "stepping stone" and comparing it to the J-8 in the Chinese Air Force isn't also something I really agree with.
I think we need to view the Chinese Navy in future as really made up of "two fleets". One fleet is the "home fleet"/HF and the other is the "expeditionary fleet"/EF. These fleets would not exist in any administrative form, but rather it will be based on the numbers and types of ship which typically occupy any particular region of water.
The HF includes a variety of shorter range surface combatants and FACs including 056s and 022 FACs, but also includes a large number of blue water capable ships including destroyers, frigates, and future carriers etc (possibly amphibious assault ships depending on how many there are), and these ships would likely remain in the western pacific and possibly the first island chain.
The EF would include only blue water capable ships such as destroyers, frigates and carriers, amphibious assault ships, and would be made up of any ships which are operating outside of the western pacific elsewhere around the world.
Therefore, I see the role of the HF and the EF to be fundamentally different.
I see the HF has the job of conducting high intensity warfare around China's peripheries in the western pacific against a number of high capability potential adversaries, and for such a mission, I believe 056 corvettes and 022 FACs still have a role in the order of battle even alongside frigates, destroyers and carriers.
On the other hand, the EF has the job of conducting lower intensity warfare and patrols in blue water against a number of lower technology adversaries against low capability opponents, but still requires the capability to defend itself and survive against a limited attack from a higher technology opponent, and for such a role, of course only blue water capable vessels and power projection vessels would be suitable (AKA no FACs, no corvettes).
Therefore, I do not believe the 056 class is a "stepping stone," because the nature of China's geography and maritime surroundings (and regional geopolitics) means that for the long term forseeable future, it will always likely need a relatively large fleet of lower endurance, lower capability surface combatants to patrol its closer waters and littorals even while larger blue water capable surface combatants conduct action in the open ocean of the western pacific.
I believe that even if the Chinese Navy ends up building 24 052Ds, 24 055s, and 24 next generation frigates within the next decade or two, they will still have a role for corvettes and possibly even 022 FACs.
Yeah, my exercise in analogies really didn't go very far. While I do think the PLAN will build a good number of 056 I also think that they are "placeholders" if not "stepping stones" for when the PLAN can trade up to more FFGs instead, especially the non-ASW version. Coast guard cutters can do the low intensity jobs and when the military is needed a FFG can step right up.
Possibly, but I also think the Navy needs a short range littoral ship operating in or near China's own waters for ASW especially, as well as general light ASuW roles, and FFGs would have too much range and endurance for such a mission, but coast guard cutters also would not be equipped with the sonar suites and naval weaponry (torpedoes, AShMs, especially) for that role.
So even with a greater number of FFGs, I still see a role for a large number of relatively small, low capability (in ASuW and AAW, but competent in ASW especially if operating with ASW MPAs and ASW helicopters), low endurance, short range surface combatants explicitly to help defend China's coasts against subsurface threats and any small surface threats which may leak through during a higher intensity conflict.
I do not agree with this at all.
This is only true of you try and place the 056 in the full fledged, blue-water FFG role.
But they were never intended for that.
The Type 056 is a marvelous, new, and capable light frigate or corvette that will bring far more capability (both in weapons and sensors) to the role originally filled by the Type 037s.
They are going to be a Chinese close-in, littoral combatant that can cover needs for ASW, ASuW, and patrol duties all along the coast and down into the SCS.
For a large part of those duties a Type 054A would be overkill.
Unless there is a full scale war against near peer opponents, that reaches up to the Chinese coast, those larger FFGs are going to be further out to sea in their normal operations and exercises...at the first chain and beyond doing ASW, escorting carriers and other task forces, comprising SAGs with DDGs, etc.
The Type 056 will hold down the coastal areas and the closer in channels like in the SCS for less intense warfare needs, releasing the Type 054A FFGs for those other duties I spoke of.
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