After 2030, I would expect shipbuilding to shift towards aircraft carriers and less towards destroyers/frigates
Considering the shortfall of modern and near-future-era destroyers and frigates in the PLAN compared to the USN, JMSDF and ROKN peers, China's construction fever of destroyers and frigates could still be going strong into the early 2030s.
Of course, with the maturing of carrier operations, marine nuclear propulsion system and stealth technology for submarines, we would see a gradual uptick of constructions of newer CVs, LPDs & LHDs, SSBNs & SSNs and SSKs starting this decade.
However, I think we would see the increase in procurement rates of flatdecks and submarines will happen concurrently as the increase in procurement rates of surface combatants starting this decade as well.
The PLA-navy is building an average of 6 destroyers per year ( 2 Type 055 and 4 Type 052D ).
At this rate within 12 years 6 x 12 = 72
Add this to the 50 China currently have 50 + 72 = 122 destroyers by year 2035
Let's just say 120 destroyers.
Let's also assume that 120 is good enough.
Besides, there is something else that definitely necessitates an rapid increase in major surface combatant procurements by the PLAN.
Here's the list of PLAN DDG classes in service right now:
055 - 7 (+1)
052D/DL - 25
052C - 6
051C -2
052B -2
956E/EM - 4
051B - 1
052 - 2
Then there's this list of PLAN FFG classes in service right now:
054A - 31 (+4)
054A - 2
053H3 - 8
053H1 - 2
Out of the total
49 (+1) DDGs and
43 (+4) FFGs listed above,
only 38 (+1) of the DDGs and
31 (+4) of the FFGs are
equipped with features and capabilities that
actually fulfill the requirements for present and near future naval warfare scenarios, i.e. 7 (+1) 055s, 25 052Ds, 6 052Cs and 31 (+4) 054As.
For the remainder 11 DDGs and 12 FFGs - Despite them being sequentially upgraded to modern-day standards - Would either have to be retired from active frontline service and be relegated to rearguard duties within the FIC, or be retired from PLAN service entirely.
In essence, in order for China to expand and upgrade her navy across the board simultaneously in order to compete and outmach all of her rivals in the Westpac,
the rate of newer warships that are being introduced into the PLAN must be at least twice or thrice as high as the rate of older warships that are being phased out of active frontline service or retired from the PLAN.
Now, it's not just a quality game but also a number's game. China cannot afford to lose out, in order to not repeat the same mistakes as the Qing Dynasty in the 19th century.