The point is that Lynx, Panther and NH-90 are not part of the Seahawk supply chain, not whether they are good enough ASW platforms or are or not effectively competing against the Seahawk. This belies the 'Seahawk supply chain' financial argument. Also, the NH-90 was chosen for naval ASW over the Seahawk and over the Merlin and the Super Frelon, all of whom were already available and had supply chains in place. This to me speaks both against the supply chain argument and against the bigger is better argument.
The supply chain position applied only for seahawk regarding its popularity, not for the popularity of all medium and light weight helicopters.
I see the popularity of light and medium weight helicopters (which seahawk is a part of), as more a result of most navies either having ASW needs that can be fulfilled by a smaller helicopter, and also the fact that most navies do not have large enough surface combatants to field larger helicopters on in the first place (and cost).
Given that available 13 to 14 ton platforms with available supply chains already existed at the time most of these navies started looking for new ASW helos, I would think that unneeded capability is the greatest share of the correct answer. Back in the days of big budget military spending during the Cold War, the US and the West were still using helos like the Seaprite, Sea King and later the MH/UH-60 and NH-90. The Merlin and Super Frelon's lack of significant penetration into the ASW helo market is very telling IMO; even as legacy platforms were becoming obsolete and navies started looking for replacements, they in general eschewed these larger helos and overwhelming looked to 10 ton platforms like the Seahawk and NH-90. There is no sign of any significant changes going into the future as pretty much all warships that we know of are being designed with these medium helos primarily in mind.
Right, well at least we can agree that 13 ton helicopters offer capabilities which many navies may not require for their ASW helicopters.
But of course, the PLAN might have these requirements, as well as the funds to develop it, as well as the ship to comfortably fit it on.
Or that the additional capabilities provided by 13 ton platforms are seen as unnecessary to effective ASW.
Yes, I agree with this.
However, do we agree that 13 ton helicopters do provide an increase in capability for ASW compared to a 10 ton helicopter? That is to say, while a 10 ton helicopter might fit the ASW needs of many navies, that if we were merely measuring on sheer performance, a 13 ton helicopter will out perform a 10 ton helicopter?
I don't think anyone has been making claims to the effect that there is zero chance the Z-18 will appear on the 055. And if it does appear on the 055, I don't think 'because it's better' would be the obvious and necessary conclusion, either. 'Because it's available' would be my first inclination in such a case.
Well we seemingly disagree on the fundamental position of of a heavier versus a lighter helicopter's differing capabilities in ASW roles, so I suppose there's not much I can say.
However "because it's available" would be a poor reason for PLAN to go for Z-18 on 055 if it didn't offer the benefits of having greater capability as well. Higher unit cost and operating cost, needing a larger deck/hangar, all for a larger helicopter that supposedly doesn't offer any more meaningful capability beyond a 10 ton helicopter?
May as well just wait for Z-20 or use existing Z-9s or Ka-28s instead, then.
IMO the more interesting question is why didn't the USN feel the need to develop a heavier weight ASW helo.
Didn't have large enough surface combatants to hold them, didn't think the extra capability was worth the cost, or simply wanted to jump on the UH-60 bandwagon, but chances are it was all of these factors.