Lethe
Captain
The large combatant force structure thing is possible but it will also depend on how the USN modifies it's force structure. I expect the USN to induct larger combatants by the late 2020s to 2030s as well that will drastically change their force structure by mid century too.
Well, in the medium-term USN's force structure is becoming lighter by inducting increasing numbers of LCSs, and a future "Small Surface Combatant". In any case, mid-century is too distant for useful projections, I only chose it in my previous post to get away from the restrictions of the present and therefore illustrate my concept in a 'pure' form.
That said I think saying having a fleet "comparable" to XYZ's navy only really makes sense if we are talking in terms of overall capability, overall force structure or maybe overall tonnage. I don't see how anything else could reasonably work in that case.
I am referring to overall capability (although tonnage probably works as well, at least with respect to surface combatants and submarines), which is really a simplification of a range of capabilities in a range of contexts. I expect China to have greater total numbers of surface combatants (and submarines), whilst having fewer large combatants (and fewer nuclear submarines). In certain contexts -- i.e. within China's regional environment, where all her forces can (at least in theory) be brought to bear -- such would translate to a comparative advantage for China (in a direct comparison with USA). In other contexts, e.g. the South Atlantic, it would not. Note that this division of strengths and weaknesses reflects the differing strategic interests of the nations involved. Another way of looking at it is that China would have more "raw capability", but that capability would degrade more rapidly with distance from China than USN's does with distance from USA.
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