We can clearly see a Low-Medium-High strategy in terms of naval shipbuilding.
And China's current Coast Guard fleet and ongoing production rate is already more than a match for the combined Coast Guards of Asia.
The same applies to the low-end (Type-56 Corvette) of China's Navy which is tasked with the SCS and littoral waters and ASW.
Where China lags somewhat is on the medium-end (Type-54 Frigate) and particularly on the high-end (Type-52/55 Destroyer) numbers.
At the moment, the Type-52D is smaller than the Burke in terms of physical size and weaponry, whereas the Type-55 will be bigger than the Burke in both departments. So the Type-55 will also have a much bigger psychological "presence" when meeting a Burke. The Type-52D does not have this and remember that there are a lot of Burkes already in the water.
And given that China will be spending at least $24billion more on high-end destroyers, the difference in hull numbers is notionally 20x Type-55 versus 24x Type-52D
In most scenarios, that won't make any difference in terms of physical availability in a particular location, but a fleet based on the Type-55 will have at least 40% more VLS cells available to use.
Hence the Type-55 is simply better value for money and also is affordable, given the increasing defense budget and how the low end presence mission is already adequately covered.
A few points.
Firstly, procurement costs are only one factor, you also have to bear in mind operational costs.
055 might be much more cost effective to buy compared to 052D, but given the much larger displacement and likely crew size, they will also be much more expensive to run, and would represent a bigger logistical burden for resupply, thus need more supply ships for the fleets. Those costs could also need to be considered and factored into the equation for deciding what ratio to buy the two types.
Secondly, a big badass cruiser is cool, but not every mission calls for such presence and firepower, as the USN has found out to its cost with its over reliance on Burkes and subsequent over-balance with the LCS, but that's a different discussion.
The PLAN is unlikely to face a problem of that level because of its heavy investment on Frigates, but the point remains that there are comparatively few missions where only an 055 and nothing less will do. For lesser missions, sending 052Ds will get the job done for less, both in terms of procurement and operational costs.
Thirdly, we need to remember that the currently PLAN fleet expansion is as much, if not more to do with giving Chinese shipyards a helping hand in a difficult market as it is with any imminent operational need from the PLAN.
As early as a couple of years ago, commercial shipping contracts were down from 40-70% in Chinese yards. That's a massive threat to the very existence of many yards.
The PLAN naval contracts are pretty much a form of government stimulus, designed to help yards weather the current rough times without having to make deep, painful cuts to core capacity that will be hard and expensive to reverse once the good times comes again.
In that context, efficiency is very much a secondary concern, and any additional costs incurred from setting up production at so many yards would also be offset greatly by the massive decline in commodity prices.
I agree that there is a considerable amount of overlap between the 052D and 055, and in normal times, 052D production may well be superseded with 055 production.
However, given the economic reality, the Chinese government will probably run both types in parallel to keep as many yards viable as possible.
Such a decision is especially evident in the way smaller ships like the 056 and coast guard ships are being built all over the place.
In a similar way, it may also be possible for the 054A and 054B/057 classes to be built in parallel, whereas in normal times you would expect production of the earlier type to be replaced with the newer.
WWII made the USN the power it has been ever since. The global economic downturn may well be doing the same for the PLAN.
