Over on CDF a week or so ago there was some discussion about how many 055s may be built and how fast it may take to build them, in relation to potential total numbers (with some circulating rumours that 055 production may reach as high as 24) as well as when 055 may first be equipped with a railgun in relation to batch (mentioned to be after the "first batch" which was been described as four ships).
I posted this response, and I thought it might be worth xposting it here as well.
[disclaimer, I personally have no opinion as to whether the Chinese Navy will seek to build 24 055s and 24 052Ds, but the below projection was made assuming they do, and is more to illustrate the potential build rates of the various shipyards if such a demand occurred]
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I think JN will be able to launch its 8th 052D by early next year at the latest, and DL will probably launch all of its four 052Ds by 2018 (considering they seem to work a bit slower than JN), assuming they don't start building 055s alongside their third 052D.
If the order for the second 12 052Ds is made without JN or DL pausing 052D production, and if the 12 are divided with 8 for JN and 4 for DL as well... then it may look something like so:
Considering JN for the last few years has only been using one building hall to assemble 052Ds, at slightly under one a year (call it 7 months), and assuming that 055 production at JN is going to take place in the other building hall and that the pace of both 055 and 052D production are unaffected by each other, it'll take about 4.5 years for JN's second batch of 8 052Ds to be built, from mid-2016 -- so it'll be about 2021 when both building halls at JN can be used for 055 production.
If we assume that it takes one year's time between successive 055 launches (which is probably underestimating it slightly), and that the first 055 is launched late 2016 or early 2017, JN could potentially launch 4-5 055s from a single building hall prior to 2021.
At DL it's a bit more complicated, because they also have two building slipways, but it seems to be taking them much longer to build an 052D, let's call it 1 year between successive launches from one slipway, so it might take another 2 years (even assuming parallel construction using both slipways) for DL to be ready to start producing 055s after they've launched their last 052D of the second order of four, given the need to retool and change things for 055. So we may start seeing DL construct 055s by 2020 or 2021, after they've finished their 2x4 052Ds... which is about when JN would start producing 055s from both building halls.
Assuming the first batch of 055s are four ships, and that the second batch of 055s are equipped with railguns, then we may see the first railgun equipped 055 (or, the 5th 055 overall) launch from JN at about 2020.
From the 5th 055 onwards, JN will then produce 055s from each of its two building halls, and DL produce 055s from each of its two slipways (currently used for parallel 052D construction); let's call it a rate of launch of 2 055s per year for JN and 2 055s every two years for DL. Assuming a 16:8 distribution of total 055 production for JN and DL respectively (similar to the 16:8 ratio for 052D production), then it would take JN 6 years to produce its remaining 12 055s (as it's already produced 4 or 5 055s prior to 2020), and DL would need at least 4 years to produce its 8 055s... So 055 production may possibly continuing to 2026-27, if 24 ships are really on order, though it will likely take longer than that as well due to a degree of staggering of parallel production at both JN and DL, as well as possible difficulties in funding, or deliberately increasing production time to allow more ships to be commissioned without cramping the launching basins.
So all in all, if 24 055s really are on the cards, the last 055 might be commissioned by 2030.
And the first railgun equipped 055 (if it is the 5th 055 overall) may be launched around 2020 and enter service one to two years after that.
But I really can't wrap my head around the idea of the Chinese Navy having 24 052Ds and 24 055s in service by 2030... Not to mention 6 052Cs that will still be around as well, and then there are frigates to consider -- 24 054As... and what about 054B/057 production? I can't imagine they would only produce a small number of those -- and HP and HD together could build 24 054Bs together by the mid 2020s as well, assuming the first is launched around 2017-2018...
It all seems like a bit too much.
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I posted this response, and I thought it might be worth xposting it here as well.
[disclaimer, I personally have no opinion as to whether the Chinese Navy will seek to build 24 055s and 24 052Ds, but the below projection was made assuming they do, and is more to illustrate the potential build rates of the various shipyards if such a demand occurred]
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I think JN will be able to launch its 8th 052D by early next year at the latest, and DL will probably launch all of its four 052Ds by 2018 (considering they seem to work a bit slower than JN), assuming they don't start building 055s alongside their third 052D.
If the order for the second 12 052Ds is made without JN or DL pausing 052D production, and if the 12 are divided with 8 for JN and 4 for DL as well... then it may look something like so:
Considering JN for the last few years has only been using one building hall to assemble 052Ds, at slightly under one a year (call it 7 months), and assuming that 055 production at JN is going to take place in the other building hall and that the pace of both 055 and 052D production are unaffected by each other, it'll take about 4.5 years for JN's second batch of 8 052Ds to be built, from mid-2016 -- so it'll be about 2021 when both building halls at JN can be used for 055 production.
If we assume that it takes one year's time between successive 055 launches (which is probably underestimating it slightly), and that the first 055 is launched late 2016 or early 2017, JN could potentially launch 4-5 055s from a single building hall prior to 2021.
At DL it's a bit more complicated, because they also have two building slipways, but it seems to be taking them much longer to build an 052D, let's call it 1 year between successive launches from one slipway, so it might take another 2 years (even assuming parallel construction using both slipways) for DL to be ready to start producing 055s after they've launched their last 052D of the second order of four, given the need to retool and change things for 055. So we may start seeing DL construct 055s by 2020 or 2021, after they've finished their 2x4 052Ds... which is about when JN would start producing 055s from both building halls.
Assuming the first batch of 055s are four ships, and that the second batch of 055s are equipped with railguns, then we may see the first railgun equipped 055 (or, the 5th 055 overall) launch from JN at about 2020.
From the 5th 055 onwards, JN will then produce 055s from each of its two building halls, and DL produce 055s from each of its two slipways (currently used for parallel 052D construction); let's call it a rate of launch of 2 055s per year for JN and 2 055s every two years for DL. Assuming a 16:8 distribution of total 055 production for JN and DL respectively (similar to the 16:8 ratio for 052D production), then it would take JN 6 years to produce its remaining 12 055s (as it's already produced 4 or 5 055s prior to 2020), and DL would need at least 4 years to produce its 8 055s... So 055 production may possibly continuing to 2026-27, if 24 ships are really on order, though it will likely take longer than that as well due to a degree of staggering of parallel production at both JN and DL, as well as possible difficulties in funding, or deliberately increasing production time to allow more ships to be commissioned without cramping the launching basins.
So all in all, if 24 055s really are on the cards, the last 055 might be commissioned by 2030.
And the first railgun equipped 055 (if it is the 5th 055 overall) may be launched around 2020 and enter service one to two years after that.
But I really can't wrap my head around the idea of the Chinese Navy having 24 052Ds and 24 055s in service by 2030... Not to mention 6 052Cs that will still be around as well, and then there are frigates to consider -- 24 054As... and what about 054B/057 production? I can't imagine they would only produce a small number of those -- and HP and HD together could build 24 054Bs together by the mid 2020s as well, assuming the first is launched around 2017-2018...
It all seems like a bit too much.
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