plawolf
Lieutenant General
Great news about the 054 negotiations.
One of the things I have been ideally wondering is what VLS the PN will go for. While it would make a lot of sense for them to wait for the 054B/057 class, to get the new universal VLS, I actually think they will end up going for just the old 054A and its single (or dual, depending on what sources you believe) VLS system.
While the new universal VLS will indeed add a lot more flexibility compared to the current VLS in use on the 054A class, I think a few key factors will push the PN away from that.
The biggest benefit of the universal VLS will be its flexibility in being able to carry both shorter ranged quad-packed SAMs, and long range SAMs, as well as cruise missiles and AShMs and ASROCs (although the 054A's current VLS is claimed to have this last ability already). But that will come at the cost of greater cost (both procurement and operating, as the 054B/057 class is likely to be of a larger displacement, and may carry new developments that the PLAN want, but which the PN might be want to pay extra for, like IEPS etc), risk (newer design), and longer wait time (the PLAN will want to get its ships first before entertaining the idea of exporting it).
Given the realities faced by the PN, I think it might not get the most of the benefits offered by the 054B/057, while it might feel a lot of the costs more acutely.
In terms of flexibility of weapons load, well, the PN's current entire fleet only has short range SAMs, so I think that area is more than adequately covered. In real operationally deployments, I seriously doubt the PN would want to waste any of the VLS cells of a 054 class ship for short range SAMs, and instead want to load it up with as many longer range missiles as possible.
Speaking of longer ranged SAMs, with the massive number of AEGIS class destroyers and cruisers the PLAN has and are planning on, I somehow doubt they will bother putting such a powerful long range radar system on the 054B/057 class, and instead rely on co-operative engagement to make full use of any long range SAMs they might carry.
Without any AEGIS class ships of its own, the PN is unlikely to be able to make the most of any long range SAM carrying capabilities of the 054B/057 class without privately financing the development of a version for AEGIS grade radar and battle management system. That would be far too expensive and unlikely to happen.
Similarly, given the disparity of strengthen between the PN and IN, in any conflict scenario, I think the PN will use its subs for launch cruise missiles attacks rather than risk sending its surface fleet out for such a mission, especially since loading them up for cruise missile attack will make them more vulnerable to attack as it will need to trade SAMs for cruise missiles on its ships.
One of the things I have been ideally wondering is what VLS the PN will go for. While it would make a lot of sense for them to wait for the 054B/057 class, to get the new universal VLS, I actually think they will end up going for just the old 054A and its single (or dual, depending on what sources you believe) VLS system.
While the new universal VLS will indeed add a lot more flexibility compared to the current VLS in use on the 054A class, I think a few key factors will push the PN away from that.
The biggest benefit of the universal VLS will be its flexibility in being able to carry both shorter ranged quad-packed SAMs, and long range SAMs, as well as cruise missiles and AShMs and ASROCs (although the 054A's current VLS is claimed to have this last ability already). But that will come at the cost of greater cost (both procurement and operating, as the 054B/057 class is likely to be of a larger displacement, and may carry new developments that the PLAN want, but which the PN might be want to pay extra for, like IEPS etc), risk (newer design), and longer wait time (the PLAN will want to get its ships first before entertaining the idea of exporting it).
Given the realities faced by the PN, I think it might not get the most of the benefits offered by the 054B/057, while it might feel a lot of the costs more acutely.
In terms of flexibility of weapons load, well, the PN's current entire fleet only has short range SAMs, so I think that area is more than adequately covered. In real operationally deployments, I seriously doubt the PN would want to waste any of the VLS cells of a 054 class ship for short range SAMs, and instead want to load it up with as many longer range missiles as possible.
Speaking of longer ranged SAMs, with the massive number of AEGIS class destroyers and cruisers the PLAN has and are planning on, I somehow doubt they will bother putting such a powerful long range radar system on the 054B/057 class, and instead rely on co-operative engagement to make full use of any long range SAMs they might carry.
Without any AEGIS class ships of its own, the PN is unlikely to be able to make the most of any long range SAM carrying capabilities of the 054B/057 class without privately financing the development of a version for AEGIS grade radar and battle management system. That would be far too expensive and unlikely to happen.
Similarly, given the disparity of strengthen between the PN and IN, in any conflict scenario, I think the PN will use its subs for launch cruise missiles attacks rather than risk sending its surface fleet out for such a mission, especially since loading them up for cruise missile attack will make them more vulnerable to attack as it will need to trade SAMs for cruise missiles on its ships.
