Indonesia has a Superpower threatening to position stealth bombers and nuclear subs on its doorstep. It needs serious kit.
052C/052D Class Destroyers
- Thread starter Jeff Head
- Start date
The only ship class that Indonesia doesn't need is an aircraft carrier (but only because it needs airfields anyway). Even LHDs will be necessary in time.
Just look at the sheer size of it.
And complexity:
Java - 149 mil., Sumatra - 59 mil., Sulawesi (Celebes) - 20 mil., Kalimantan (Borneo) - 17 mil, West Papua - 5,5 mil. All of Indonesia has approx 278 mil.
It's easy to imagine where the main threat requiring naval presence is located and which countries will be the threat vector.
A map I made a few years ago to demonstrate aerial theater in the region. It doesn't show ranges for naval SAMs but those can be inferred. There's an outline of Poland in the Timor Sea for reference and better understanding of scale.
There are only two viable sources of tested and future-proof AA naval assets:
- US and AEGIS which could be implemented in e.g. Korea or Spain
- China.
An air warfare destroyer is a must for Indonesia because it currrently has no ships with SAM better than Mica VL and it needs to protect LPDs of which it has seven already. With lack of infrastructure in the region ships are the only viable AA.
Considering that the main threat will come from F-35s a Chinese AA ship might not be a bad idea. Keeps the fleet diverse but viable. Makes sense militarily but it's ultimately a political decision. Buying a Chinese destroyer would be seen in DC as a clear signal and Jakarta may or may not want to send it, at least not yet. I don't know the internal politics enough to say more.
The unfortunate problem of Indonesia's geography is that China doesn't need to violate Indonesian space but US doesn't have a choice. Buying Chinese AA ships may be a solution and a signal in one direction but it will mean bad terms with DC immediately. But the US is only responsible for 10% of exports and 5% of imports so it may be a worthwhile tradeoff if China can compensate the loss - which in economic terms it can.
052C could be a testing of the waters/boiling the frog as they are not the most modern assets but will be essential to transition the crews to Chinese tech. With 052C in service any future acquisition of 052D/newer is much easier. Similarly an upgrade of 052C will be possible quickly judging by the speed of refits/upgrades of other older PLAN destroyers. Not to mention that with 052C already in service Indonesia can easily open itself to Chinese military aid should it feel threatened. Military equipment is all about the procedures and knowledge base necessary to use and maintain it. Ukraine demonstrated it very well - older Soviet tech was more useful than newer NATO tech because it could be implemented quickly. So it's an option that Indonesia may want to keep open.
Everyone looks at Taiwan or SCS but to me Indonesia is the most important factor because of how it legitimises foreign intervention in a neutral territory (see: East TImor) meaning that it allows a proxy conflict for all involved which is something that is no longer possible in SCS/ECS etc and draws China away from its prepared positions. If you're losing one game, start a new one.
I'll stop here as this shouldn't develop further into OT but this development is certainly worth the attention. Game-changing if true, and interesting either way.
Lethe
Captain
I suspect the recent showcase of 052D for export in Dubai is where this rumour comes from. If Indonesia is dithering over previous FREMM and Arrowhead 140 commitments on grounds of cost and propulsion, 052D makes no sense. It is like saying that you cannot afford to buy a new Corolla so you are going to buy a used Land Cruiser instead. If there is a power bloc that would permit the acquisition of Chinese warships, but cost is a limiting factor and propulsion is a concern also, buying new or used 054A would make a lot more sense.
It really depends. Europeans stuff are at a great mark up for its capability. 052E might not be more pricy, and if it were more pricy the cost efficiency still favors 052E series. The more apt analogy would be unable to afford Honda Civic and buys BYD Han instead. For little more the capability gap is huge.
Lastly 052E tonnage is not far from these oversized 'frigate'. 052C is roughly equal.
Lethe
Captain
No doubt Chinese solutions are most cost-effective than European solutions, but it to be a question of cost-effectiveness, but of acquisition and operating costs in the context of a limited available budget. The rationale for a Chinese acquisition would be to achieve a significant reduction in costs relative to alternative acquisition paths, not to maximise capability within a similar budget. 052D is a poor fit for that, and other PLAN destroyers are not much better. Unless and until we hear more detail, I am inclined to file this rumour under "wishful thinking".
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I think 052E makes a lot of sense. There are geopolitical concerns for sure but besides that 052E is far more sensible than FREMM. Long term operating cost is a non issue.
Chinese gears are known to have cheaper spare parts. China is open to have technology transfer and personnel training at super cheap price. Ammunition is also cheaper. Superior loan offers. I would not be surprised if 052E ends up cheaper both initial cost and operating cost.
This is not a problem. China can provide special-purpose radars based on different T/R modules, algorithms, and with similar performance. The United States also exports a large number of F-15s, F-16s, F-35s and other fighter jets, but it is not afraid of its technical secrets being leaked.
Lethe
Captain
Per Ananda (personally I have yet to encounter anyone better informed on Indonesian defence procurement matters who writes in English) the Indonesian Navy is still reluctant to embrace gas turbine propulsion and this is one of the issues with FREMM. 052D/E would not solve this. 052D/E also requires a significantly larger crew than FREMM, Arrowhead 140 or 054A and this is a major contributor to total lifecycle cost.
If Jakarta is willing to entertain Chinese solutions for major acquisition programs such as this, that is much more important than which specific platform they might end up purchasing. That political background is what I would like to read more about.
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FREMM is very comparable to 052E in my opinion. If Arrowhead's cost and low crew size is the decisive factor you can say the same to FREMM. Arrowhead is comparable to 054A and not to FREMM and 052E. I am very skeptical of Arrowhead personally because the cost did not include Mk 41, and true its crew is smaller due to being a smaller and less capable ship. Furthermore the ship is hardly built the cost estimate could go up.
I am not convinced of FREMM being so much less crew. Did it include complements? China is not behind in terms of automation. I am sure China can accommodate a load out less crew intensive, or maybe swap a whole engine which is totally doable for China. Cost is one thing European will never ever beat China in, it is not even close.
This is true. Like I said geopolitical reason is the only rational reason to pick European options. In terms of cost I am sure China is willing to give a very very generous offer just for the geopolitical significance alone, something I doubt others would.