052C/052D Class Destroyers

Equation

Lieutenant General
And SM-3, THAAD you don't know :cool: nah :p

You're overestimating the SM-3 and THAAD ability to encounter such a missile program like DF-21D, DF-26 and HGV. What you read about countering live missile test is NOT at the exact same speed and maneuvering capability such as those "carrier killer" missiles. Remember China won't be launching just one missile at the CVG. Like they say, an inundated offense (ASBM) will always beat an inundated defense (SM-3 and THAAD) EVERY time.:D;)
 

delft

Brigadier
assuming neither country collapses or experiences a massive economic depression; this is not out of the realm of possibility for either country IMO. I have always thought that the banks and Wall Street are the biggest threats to US national security, not terrorism or major countries. /rant off
OT
You hit the nail on the head. The policy of many years of minimal interest rates, and the policies leading up to it and "made it necessary", is leading to massive waste and economic incompetence. Look at the Washington DC metro rail system. Compare the time necessary to build the Californian high speed railway with that of the the longer line between Beijing and Shanghai. No enemy can do so much damage.
 
After 15 years, it will be 2031, and depending on how China's economy, and overall socioeconomic and socio-political situation fares over the next decade and a half, I think it would be just as presumptuous to suggest that China's military industry and overall military capability may be able to achieve parity in the ways you described, as it is to suggest that such a prospect is unrealistic.

That's my point, that even goals less ambitious than what AndrewS stated are already very ambitious so the goals he stated are over-ambitious as to be unrealistic.

Remember, 15 years ago in 2001 the idea of even developing and producing domestic AEW&C, stealth fighters, aegis type destroyers, frigates, carriers, BVR missiles, PGMs, UAVs and UCAVs, all at once, would have seemed like pies in the skies.
Obviously the rate of advancement in technology and capability over the last 15 years does not mean that the rate of advancement in the next 15 years will be as fast, for all sorts of reasons (it may well be slower, or it might even be faster than the last 15 years)... but overall I think Andrew's projection is not excessively over-ambitious or unrealistic, unless the US or other powers manage to develop as of yet unforeseen game changing leap ahead technologies that China is unable to develop effective equivalents or counters for.

But then you arrive at the opposite conclusion?
 
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Iron Man

Major
Registered Member
I see some value in having a healthy number of cruisers/large destroyers with ~100 or 100+ VLS and long endurance, to use them to make up the bulk of a few high capability surface action groups operating independent of large task forces like CSGs or ARGs.
In my view, a 055 would become the HVU of a SAG and would have the facilities to serve as the brains of the operation, meaning there would only be need for a single one of these in a SAG. The 052D and the 054A are both considered blue water ships and there is no reason to assume they could not keep up with a 055. They would also be delegated slightly different roles in a SAG, with the 054A given the roles of ASW and local air defense, the 052D and 055 assuming the roles of long range air defense, and the 055 serving as the commander of the group, given only this ship will have the C&C facilities to enable such a role. Like I've been saying, I think the 055's main purpose will be to serve as a commander, not as a workhorse.

And SM-3, THAAD you don't know :cool: nah :p
Given that THAAD is a terminal interceptor, this system would be out of the picture for any realistic scenario involving the DF-21D, as the interceptor would have to be more or less right next to the DF-21D's target in order to have a chance at intercepting it. So if the CSG is sailing near Guam, then THAAD could protect the group. Otherwise the CSG would have to rely on its SM-2 and SM-6 missiles, or on another CSG's SM-3s, or an SM-3-carrying escort acting in the dangerous role of 'missile trap'. Remember that the target CSG cannot use its own escorts' SM-3 interceptors against an incoming warhead as the SM-3 has to be more or less directly underneath the midcourse portion of the DF-21D's flight path. It cannot attack a warhead already inbound during the final endo-atmospheric terminal phase.
 

Blitzo

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
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That's my point, that even goals less ambitious than what AndrewS stated are already very ambitious so the goals he stated are over-ambitious as to be unrealistic.



But then you arrive at the opposite conclusion?

You need to re read my post. The first part which you quoted me is not saying that andrewS's claim is over ambitious (ie parity).

I am instead saying that it is just as likely for parity to be achieved as it is for it to not be achieved, because we don't know how Chinas situation will unfold in the next 15 years.
 

kriss

Junior Member
Registered Member
I don't know why 055 have the capability means only to have one of them in a SAG. C&C is just one function of the ship and it's not likely the only or primarily function 055 is designed around. And it's also not the only area 055 would surpass 052D. We could have a 055 flotilla and geared only one of them with fleet commander center. Leave other 055 more focusing on other missions with maybe one of them with a less dedicated backup commander center.
 

Iron Man

Major
Registered Member
I don't know why 055 have the capability means only to have one of them in a SAG. C&C is just one function of the ship and it's not likely the only or primarily function 055 is designed around. And it's also not the only area 055 would surpass 052D. We could have a 055 flotilla and geared only one of them with fleet commander center. Leave other 055 more focusing on other missions with maybe one of them with a less dedicated backup commander center.
This is the same question as asking why can't there be 2 carriers in a CSG? Well, the answer is that there is no reason there CAN'T be 2 carriers in a CSG, but there probably won't be 2 for the same reason there probably won't be 2 055s in the same SAG (unless there are extenuating circumstances). If the main function of the 055 is command and control, then one 055 will serve this purpose. Besides, it's not like there would be multiple AAW commanders with attached staff on board every 055 in the same SAG waiting to take over for each other if one goes down. And if you want more firepower then the question is why not more 052D or 054A? Especially wasted would be a 055-only ego-stroking super-SAG sailing around while having to use one of them for the undignified purpose of towing a VDS around or tasked with local air defense when a frigate or a 052D could be doing the exact same jobs. People seem to forget that most modern destroyers in this world are not the size of the Arleigh Burke, Atago, or King Sejong, the latter two of which exist in only very scant numbers. The 052D itself already equals or surpasses most modern destroyers and "frigates" in terms of size and missile loadout, with none of them existing or building even remotely close to the numbers that the 052D is, which IMO is clearly the go-to workhorse of the PLAN rather than the 055. I think too many people are trying to out-epeen the largest of the world's destroyers using the 055 as a virtual phallus, when the 052D itself is already a plenty big-enough stick. That said, I think it is very likely that the 055 will eventually be in service in far greater numbers than all the larger destroyers of surrounding countries put together.
 

Blitzo

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
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This is the same question as asking why can't there be 2 carriers in a CSG? Well, the answer is that there is no reason there CAN'T be 2 carriers in a CSG, but there probably won't be 2 for the same reason there probably won't be 2 055s in the same SAG (unless there are extenuating circumstances). If the main function of the 055 is command and control, then one 055 will serve this purpose. Besides, it's not like there would be multiple AAW commanders with attached staff on board every 055 in the same SAG. And if you want more firepower then the question is why not more 052D or 054A? Especially wasted would be a 055-only ego-stroking super-SAG sailing around while having to use one of them for the undignified purpose of towing a VDS around or tasked with local air defense when a frigate or a 052D could be doing the exact same jobs. People seem to forget that most modern destroyers in this world are not the size of the Arleigh Burke, Atago, or King Sejong, the latter two of which exist in only very scant numbers. The 052D itself already equals or surpasses most modern destroyers and "frigates" in terms of size and missile loadout, with none of them existing or building even remotely close to the numbers that the 052D is, which IMO is clearly the go-to workhorse of the PLAN rather than the 055. I think too many people are trying to out-epeen the largest of the world's destroyers using the 055 as a virtual phallus, when the 052D itself is already a plenty big-enough stick. That said, I think it is very likely that the 055 will eventually be in service in far greater numbers than all the larger destroyers of surrounding countries put together.

The reason why I think 055 could or should make up the "bulk" of an SAG, is because of its (likely relatively high) VLS count; specifically the capability to carry a relatively large and strategically or tactically significant number of LACMs in VLS while retaining enough VLS to maintain a sufficient VLS count for other purposes including AAW, ASuW and ASW.
(C&C was never one of my arguments for having 055s in SAG -- though I also didn't explain my rationale for having 055s in SAGs to begin with)

The Navy could of course simply add two 052Ds instead of an 055 to an SAG if they want to have the same number of VLS tubes (depending on how many VLS an 055 actually has), but then we will have to ask whether it's more cost efficient to have the equivalent of a single 055 as part of an SAG vs two 052Ds (or vs 1 052D and 1 054B etc), if we are interested in VLS count. Issues of force flexibility in the SAG are also things to consider, which may tilt the SAG structure in either direction.

Of course another question is just what "strategically or tactically significant number" of LACMs will equate to in coming years as the Navy evolves its own projections for force structure.

I don't necessarily think a Navy with more 055s will definitely be the best option, and I can see some arguments in support of it and against it at this stage. But I do think that saying the discussion is due to a desire for measuring stick size is a bit simplistic and offensive.
 

Iron Man

Major
Registered Member
The reason why I think 055 could or should make up the "bulk" of an SAG, is because of its (likely relatively high) VLS count; specifically the capability to carry a relatively large and strategically or tactically significant number of LACMs in VLS while retaining enough VLS to maintain a sufficient VLS count for other purposes including AAW, ASuW and ASW.
(C&C was never one of my arguments for having 055s in SAG -- though I also didn't explain my rationale for having 055s in SAGs to begin with)

The Navy could of course simply add two 052Ds instead of an 055 to an SAG if they want to have the same number of VLS tubes (depending on how many VLS an 055 actually has), but then we will have to ask whether it's more cost efficient to have the equivalent of a single 055 as part of an SAG vs two 052Ds (or vs 1 052D and 1 054B etc), if we are interested in VLS count. Issues of force flexibility in the SAG are also things to consider, which may tilt the SAG structure in either direction.

Of course another question is just what "strategically or tactically significant number" of LACMs will equate to in coming years as the Navy evolves its own projections for force structure.

I don't necessarily think a Navy with more 055s will definitely be the best option, and I can see some arguments in support of it and against it at this stage. But I do think that saying the discussion is due to a desire for measuring stick size is a bit simplistic and offensive.
Come on now, don't act as if you've never seen this type of behavior, especially on internet military sites, and even on this one. I'm not accusing you of this behavior, but the 055 is definitely the perfect candidate (or rather victim) for use in epeen contests given its potential to be the largest Asian surface combatant, potentially even rivalling the displacement of the DDG-1000. I can already sense some of this going on in this very thread. The mad rush to install this relatively giant warship as the mass-produced standard-bearing footsoldier of the PLAN is as amusing as it is bemusing. Do people realize that this ship is potentially one third larger than an Arleigh Burke?? :)

In any case, the issue of cost efficiency is merely one factor in the equation of what goes into a SAG. You also have to consider that China's potential opponents may be stronger and more technologically savvy, meaning that you don't necessarily want 3 large warships in the place of 5 or 6 smaller ones since they may be more at risk than the risk they impose on enemy vessels. This state of affairs will likely persist until around the middle of this century. The other as I have already mentioned is role. Every member of the SAG will have a role, and some roles don't need to be performed by some ships. Having a SAG consisting mainly or solely of a bunch of 055s is IMO a supreme waste of a 055. Another benefit of having more 052Ds is the ability to enlarge your air defense zones, such as if you are preparing for a multi-axis attack.

Also, I don't see a role for a PLAN SAG to perform a primarily land attack mission anytime in the near future. I don't think China has any land targets at this time that can't be reached more quickly and efficiently by shore- or air-launched cruise missiles or ballistic missiles, especially with the newer generations of Chinese LACMs with ranges of 2,000+ km. If and when China's appetite grows large enough to sail to distant lands and make some craters like the US does now, this may be more of a role that PLAN SAGs will take on.
 

Blitzo

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
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Come on now, don't act as if you've never seen this type of behavior, especially on internet military sites, and even on this one. I'm not accusing you of this behavior, but the 055 is definitely the perfect candidate (or rather victim) for use in epeen contests given its potential to be the largest Asian surface combatant, potentially even rivalling the displacement of the DDG-1000. I can already sense some of this going on in this very thread. The mad rush to install this relatively giant warship as the mass-produced standard-bearing footsoldier of the PLAN is as amusing as it is bemusing. Do people realize that this ship is potentially one third larger than an Arleigh Burke?? :)

Oh absolutely I realize that 055 has been a condensation point for some of this kind of behaviour, but ever since the 055 first seriously became considered as a project a few years ago, in my experience most of the fanboy posturing around it was more related to the capability of the 055 itself -- such as saying things like it'll have a 155mm gun, or that it'll make Zumwalt obsolete etc, that it'll have 200 or whatever VLS -- and less about the absolute number of 055s that will end up being built.

At the very least, in the last few pages of posts, I think discussion about 055's numbers has not exhibited much fanboy posturing.


In any case, the issue of cost efficiency is merely one factor in the equation of what goes into a SAG. You also have to consider that China's potential opponents may be stronger and more technologically savvy, meaning that you don't necessarily want 3 large warships in the place of 5 or 6 smaller ones since they may be more at risk than the risk they impose on enemy vessels. This state of affairs will likely persist until around the middle of this century. The other as I have already mentioned is role. Every member of the SAG will have a role, and some roles don't need to be performed by some ships. Having a SAG consisting mainly or solely of a bunch of 055s is IMO a supreme waste of a 055. Another benefit of having more 052Ds is the ability to enlarge your air defense zones, such as if you are preparing for a multi-axis attack.

Yes, I'm aware of the benefits of having an SAG made up of a larger number of small ships vs a smaller number of large ships. However I think there are also benefits of having an SAG made up of a smaller number of large ships vs vice versa, and that there is probably a compromise somewhere in the middle as well.

And just to be clear, I was never suggesting that 055s should make up the only ship type in such hypothetical SAGs -- rather they could make up the "bulk". So say, 2-3 055s, 2 052Ds and 2 054As for example could make up a larger sized SAG, and maybe a smaller SAG could have 2 055s, 1 052D, and 1 054A (or 2 052Ds and no 054A, or 2 054As), but in to both cases the 055s would make up the majority of the displacement and firepower of such an SAG.


Also, I don't see a role for a PLAN SAG to perform a primarily land attack mission anytime in the near future. I don't think China has any land targets at this time that can't be reached more quickly and efficiently by shore- or air-launched cruise missiles or ballistic missiles, especially with the newer generations of Chinese LACMs with ranges of 2,000+ km. If and when China's appetite grows large enough to sail to distant lands and make some craters like the US does now, this may be more of a role that PLAN SAGs will take on.

Well, we'll see I suppose.
I personally can envisage the Chinese Navy wanting to have a USN style land attack capability via SAGs by the mid 2020s, which they may choose to implement by having a reasonably large force of 055s, but of course also having medium weight destroyers and of course frigates.

I'm not saying the Navy definitely will get a large number of 055s, but at this point I think there's enough logic to argue it for either way, and not enough solid evidence to put either argument convincingly above the other.
 
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