Well the original post that touched off this latest flurry of posts was his prediction of 80-90 Aegis-like vessels, which is what I directly responded to.
Oh right, that was about four pages back.
Though to be fair that post didn't make any statements about when that many aegis ships would be acheived by, but whatevs.
A rumor is just a rumor. If three shipyards actually do get orders to simultaneously produce the 055, you may be on to something, but even then there are other possibilities, such as the PLAN just wants to put out a set number of cruisers in a short time period.
Well, let's wait and see.
It's still early days yet, and the first 055 hasn't even been launched. We know that JN is definitely building 055, DL is highly expected to build 055, and strong suggestions that HP LX will also be building them, so right now I'm not going to rule it out yet.
There is truth to the observation that the PLAN has been producing according to its abilities, but this is not mutually exclusive with the idea that it values and may have been planning a distributed lethality concept for a long time, which by the way is not exclusively referring to giving more ships more antiship capability, but refers also to a far more general concept:
In terms of hardware, at this stage I think their implementation of distributed lethality is essentially to give more surface ships access to anti surface weapons and especially anti ship weapons that in the last decade or so have not been standard fit aboard all USN surface combatants (including many burkes, like IIAs).
Tbh when I first read of the USN's "distribute lethality" concept, I thought their description in terms of hardware implementation aboard surface forces would have been fairly standard for most navies -- i.e.: that it is the norm for most navies to have "distributed lethality" among their surface combatant fleet as standard.
A decision which they now obviously regret, and which hopefully the PLAN will not try to replicate. I think a high/medium/low mix of CG/DDG/FFG weighted more towards the medium end (052 series) is an ideal force distribution for the PLAN.
I agree that the Chinese Navy should not seek to emulate the USN.
However, at the same time I think a better ratio of frigates to destroyers to large destroyers would be about 2:1:1, or even 1.5:1:1, in the long term "steady state" force composition.