00X/004 future nuclear CATOBAR carrier thread

[VESSEL]

In real combat, the impact of an aircraft carrier being attacked must be considered. Under high-intensity attacks, 4 catapults are significantly superior to 2-3 catapults.

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[H2O]

Some wild rumors emerge on Chinese interest, suggesting some China-related content in the new batch of leaked document. (which I can't find them)

Given the very poor choice of word in Chinese, I would say at least it was from English sources, directly translated into Chinese and now I translate it back.

Pentagon Leaks Updated:

China will have only one Type 003 aircraft carrier, the Fujian (CV18), and the new carrier, which has not yet been made public, is an improved and upgraded version of the Type 003 Fujian. China State Shipbuilding Corporation (CSSC), China's largest state-run military contractor, will build the new carrier in parallel with its two subsidiaries in Dalian and Shanghai because the design has matured. Intelligence sources predict that construction preparations are already underway, with new segments likely to appear first at the Dalian shipyard in the first quarter of 2024, and the Shanghai Jiangnan shipyard, which is conducting test work on the Fujian, to enter the dockyard phase later. The intelligence documents do not elaborate on the design and construction cycle of the new aircraft carrier.

I'd hardly call the Type 003 design as matured. The ship have yet to make it's first trip to the seas. LOL I seriously doubt this is a genuine leak from the Pentagon; probably some idiot in one of those "think tanks" trying to justify his or her paycheck.

In real combat, the impact of an aircraft carrier being attacked must be considered. Under high-intensity attacks, 4 catapults are significantly superior to 2-3 catapults.

I'm certain the PLA-N have considered situations when the carrier is under attack. Take out the propulsion system and it doesn't matter how many catapults you have, you're pretty much a sitting duck. Regardless, the PLA-N probably don't see themselves to be in a situation where they would even need 4 catapults. With the emergence of AI and unmanned drones, reliance on manned fighters would be reduced. And then there's the economic side of things to consider as well.

 

[ACuriousPLAFan]

Some wild rumors emerge on Chinese interest, suggesting some China-related content in the new batch of leaked document. (which I can't find them)

Given the very poor choice of word in Chinese, I would say at least it was from English sources, directly translated into Chinese and now I translate it back.

The rumor/"leak" about Jiangnan and Dalian currently constructing CV-19 and CV(N)-20 simultaneously has been floating around the Chinese internet since early to mid-April. No idea who started the information spread.

Meanwhile, I have not seen any news regarding that on Western defense-related news media in recent months, either. If the Pentagon leaked files on Discord does mention China is building 2 carriers simultaneously right now, you would have that being headline news on Western defense news webpages weeks ago.

I'm guessing that someone on the Chinese internet probably just attached the "Pentagon leaked documents" label to snatch clicks and likes.

 

[charles18]

...
And I would say there is 90% chance Dalian is planning to build something nuclear, unless they are sending working teams for countryside holiday in nuclear reactor design institute.

if you are 90% certain that there is going to be a nuclear powered ship is the reactor going to be fueled with:
20% enriched uranium ?
or
90% enriched uranium ?
This is an important question that must be answered before construction can begin. Furthermore, whatever decision is made it will most likely be permanent. For example back in the 1950's the US navy made a choice. It went with 90% enriched uranium to power its ships. Fast forward 70 years later to the present and things are still the same.

I think China has *already made* its decision. I'm going to take a wild guess and say they went with 20% enriched uranium. From my understanding relative to China's economic capacity it actually has a pretty small stockpile of HEU - 90% enriched uranium, about 15 tons. As a comparison, Russia has 680 tons of HEU. I don't think 15 tons of HEU is enough to power an aircraft carrier using 90% enriched uranium reactors. Maybe that's good enough for 1 carrier, but certainly not enough to power China's future ambitions which will include multiple aircraft carriers and a greatly enlarged submarine force.

 

[VESSEL]

I'm certain the PLA-N have considered situations when the carrier is under attack. Take out the propulsion system and it doesn't matter how many catapults you have, you're pretty much a sitting duck. Regardless, the PLA-N probably don't see themselves to be in a situation where they would even need 4 catapults. With the emergence of AI and unmanned drones, reliance on manned fighters would be reduced. And then there's the economic side of things to consider as well.

As far as I know, China's catapults are incredibly cheap.

 

[antiterror13]

if you are 90% certain that there is going to be a nuclear powered ship is the reactor going to be fueled with:
20% enriched uranium ?
or
90% enriched uranium ?
This is an important question that must be answered before construction can begin. Furthermore, whatever decision is made it will most likely be permanent. For example back in the 1950's the US navy made a choice. It went with 90% enriched uranium to power its ships. Fast forward 70 years later to the present and things are still the same.

I think China has *already made* its decision. I'm going to take a wild guess and say they went with 20% enriched uranium. From my understanding relative to China's economic capacity it actually has a pretty small stockpile of HEU - 90% enriched uranium, about 15 tons. As a comparison, Russia has 680 tons of HEU. I don't think 15 tons of HEU is enough to power an aircraft carrier using 90% enriched uranium reactors. Maybe that's good enough for 1 carrier, but certainly not enough to power China's future ambitions which will include multiple aircraft carriers and a greatly enlarged submarine force.

so how easy to produce 20% EU ? or how much China has 20% EU ?

What is the main disadvantage of using 20% EY for CVN ? more often refuelling ?

 

[Blitzo]

I'm certain the PLA-N have considered situations when the carrier is under attack. Take out the propulsion system and it doesn't matter how many catapults you have, you're pretty much a sitting duck. Regardless, the PLA-N probably don't see themselves to be in a situation where they would even need 4 catapults. With the emergence of AI and unmanned drones, reliance on manned fighters would be reduced. And then there's the economic side of things to consider as well.

Why do you think the PLAN don't see themselves to be in a situation where they wouldn't want 4 catapults on their future CVN?

Right now we don't know the exact configuration of the future CVN, and there is a possibility that it may have 4 catapults, and also a possibility it may have 3 catapults. There's no basis to speak of having 3 catapults as if it is a foregone conclusion at this stage.


If anything, it would be more prudent to entertain the idea that they would likely aim to have 4 catapults given a future CVN will be a larger, clean sheet design with the requisite power generation to support 4 catapults as well with all of the trimmings.


As for carriers coming under attack -- there are multiple ways of being struck which may degrade combat effectiveness in their own domains. Balancing survivability in each of those domains in a practical manner is always desirable. Propulsion is one domain, and flight deck operations is another domain. Mitigating one domain doesn't automatically mean the other is mitigated as well, just as how vulnerability in one domain doesn't automatically mean the other is inherently vulnerable either.

 

[Deino]

The rumor/"leak" about Jiangnan and Dalian currently constructing CV-19 and CV(N)-20 simultaneously has been floating around the Chinese internet since early to mid-April. No idea who started the information spread.

….

This is in fact exactly my point … when and where did these rumours appear for the first time and how credible they are?
I lost the track …

 

[Blitzo]

This is in fact exactly my point … when and where did these rumours appear for the first time and how credible they are?
I lost the track …

I agree, I have not seen any credible indications of that.

I strongly recommend that we all hold fire and not spread these unsubstantiated rumours (including on other places like Twitter, Reddit etc) ---- just don't even acknowledge them elsewhere.



I also think it's a good idea to not repeat weak rumours here either. I encourage people to practice good judgement as to whether an actual rumour is worth repeating here, and if it is, ideally with an original source or context to go with it.

 

[dxq4412]

I think this is another ‘Aircraft Carrier August on the Shipyard’ incident.