00X/004 future nuclear CATOBAR carrier thread

BoraTas

BoraTas

Captain
Registered Member
ACuriousPLAFan said:
Could this be hinting towards a successor class to the 052D or 055 already WIP currently?
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Yes. But that's about it. PLA watching is mostly about collecting and interpreting signs over years. If you see models on defense industry expos, see patents or media articles that suggest a system is being developed, see prototypes through people who spot it coincidently or in media releases, etc, you can conclude that something is coming.

So:
- If we keep seeing a similar CGI ship on PLA or defense industry related material
- See patents or auctions that conform with a new destroyer
- See something hinting at a new destroyer in shipyard commercial statements
- Global times, etc talking about a new destroyer
- See new radars getting trialed

We can conclude that a new destroyer is coming. So the ship we see in these images is a sign we need to record but we can't say a new destroyer is coming.
 
Lethe

Lethe

Captain
weig2000 said:
I certainly hope this is the case. It also makes a lot of sense now.

We know PLAN has been following a three-step roadmap envisioned/approved around 2004 for its carrier development program: Step 1, conventional STOVL carrier aka Varyag/Liaoning; Step 2, medium-weight conventional CATOBAR, now materialized as 003 Fujian; and Step 3, nuclear-powered CATOBAR carrier.

Since then, there have been some minor adjustments to the original vision & roadmap. The biggest change was adding 002 Shandong, a slightly modified version of 001 Liaoning, at the insistence of top CMC leadership to reduce the risks. This appeared to be a slowdown of the development pace. On the other hand, the 003, incorporating EMALS and weighing over 80,000 tons, was ahead of the planned and projected development pace.

I had hoped and predicted that they would build at least another 003 if not more, given how 003 having met China's current and intermediate term needs and the deteriorating geopolitical environment. However, we're not seeing the emergence of the second 003 and it looks increasingly less likely there will be one, even though we still can not rule it out 100%.

With all the bits and pieces information and leaks in the last few years, it has almost appeared that both Dalian and JNCX are preparing for yet another carrier respectively and that the next carrier is likely to be a nuclear-powered one. This indicates that PLAN is moving to the Step 3 of the roadmap, which is also the final step. It now makes sense for PLAN to start serial build the target CVN.

In that case, it will make sense for both Dalian and JNCX to build a 100,000-ton class, nuclear-powered EMALS carrier, in relatively short order.

I guess we will see.
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The problem with parallel construction at multiple shipyards is that it is going to lead to dramatic spikes in crewing requirements. The difficulties encountered in training personnel for Shandong with Liaoning as the sole source of trained personnel is well-known. Consistent serial production means that this problem eases over time. Effectively pausing, and then building multiple carriers at once, means that the problem persists. It will also create challenges for maintaining availability in relation to regular overhaul, MLU and retirement schedules over the decades to come.
 
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W

weig2000

Captain
Lethe said:
The problem with parallel construction at multiple shipyards is that it is going to lead to dramatic spikes in crewing requirements. The difficulties encountered in training personnel for Shandong with Liaoning as the sole source of trained personnel is well-known. Consistent serial production means that this problem eases over time. Effectively pausing, and then building multiple carriers at once, means that the problem persists. It will also create challenges for maintaining availability in relation to regular overhaul, MLU and retirement schedules over the decades to come.
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Your list of issues or potential challenges all exist, at relative scale, on paper and in theory.

All those can be overcome if the political decision is made. In fact, PLAN is in much better shape and condition when it comes to training crew and operating the carriers compared to when it had only Liaoning. Right now, the training program, the training bases and training aircraft/equipment are all in place and much more plenty. There are more experienced trainers and personnel. The process and methodology have all been established. It's literally day and night. With the commissioning of 003, there are one more carrier for training. It will be another 7 or 8 years out until the first CVN will be commissioned. There's definitely time to train the crew for two new carriers. Actually they don't even have to start from scratch, they can pick more experienced crew from the three existing carriers and backfill the existing carriers with new blood gradually. It's now assembly line operation there.

In short, when it comes to training crew and operating carriers, it will be time to scale, not to start up soon for PLAN.
 
Blitzo

Blitzo

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Registered Member
Lethe said:
The problem with parallel construction at multiple shipyards is that it is going to lead to dramatic spikes in crewing requirements. The difficulties encountered in training personnel for Shandong with Liaoning as the sole source of trained personnel is well-known. Consistent serial production means that this problem eases over time. Effectively pausing, and then building multiple carriers at once, means that the problem persists. It will also create challenges for maintaining availability in relation to regular overhaul, MLU and retirement schedules over the decades to come.
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In terms of MLU and overhaul and retirement, it essentially becomes a matter of strategic demand in the short/medium term versus the long and very long term consequences of faster procurement.

Things like crewing and personnel is dependent on money and will to fund the necessary workup (aka strategic demand).


At this stage I don't think dual yard simultaneous or overlapping carrier construction is necessarily guaranteed, but I wouldn't be surprised if it occurred.
 
FairAndUnbiased

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
weig2000 said:
I certainly hope this is the case. It also makes a lot of sense now.

We know PLAN has been following a three-step roadmap envisioned/approved around 2004 for its carrier development program: Step 1, conventional STOVL carrier aka Varyag/Liaoning; Step 2, medium-weight conventional CATOBAR, now materialized as 003 Fujian; and Step 3, nuclear-powered CATOBAR carrier.

Since then, there have been some minor adjustments to the original vision & roadmap. The biggest change was adding 002 Shandong, a slightly modified version of 001 Liaoning, at the insistence of top CMC leadership to reduce the risks. This appeared to be a slowdown of the development pace. On the other hand, the 003, incorporating EMALS and weighing over 80,000 tons, was ahead of the planned and projected development pace.

I had hoped and predicted that they would build at least another 003 if not more, given how 003 having met China's current and intermediate term needs and the deteriorating geopolitical environment. However, we're not seeing the emergence of the second 003 and it looks increasingly less likely there will be one, even though we still can not rule it out 100%.

With all the bits and pieces information and leaks in the last few years, it has almost appeared that both Dalian and JNCX are preparing for yet another carrier respectively and that the next carrier is likely to be a nuclear-powered one. This indicates that PLAN is moving to the Step 3 of the roadmap, which is also the final step. It now makes sense for PLAN to start serial build the target CVN.

In that case, it will make sense for both Dalian and JNCX to build a 100,000-ton class, nuclear-powered EMALS carrier, in relatively short order.

I guess we will see.
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I think the big question is to trial the catapults extensively.
 
P

pipaster

Junior Member
Registered Member
weig2000 said:
Your list of issues or potential challenges all exist, at relative scale, on paper and in theory.

All those can be overcome if the political decision is made. In fact, PLAN is in much better shape and condition when it comes to training crew and operating the carriers compared to when it had only Liaoning. Right now, the training program, the training bases and training aircraft/equipment are all in place and much more plenty. There are more experienced trainers and personnel. The process and methodology have all been established. It's literally day and night. With the commissioning of 003, there are one more carrier for training. It will be another 7 or 8 years out until the first CVN will be commissioned. There's definitely time to train the crew for two new carriers. Actually they don't even have to start from scratch, they can pick more experienced crew from the three existing carriers and backfill the existing carriers with new blood gradually. It's now assembly line operation there.

In short, when it comes to training crew and operating carriers, it will be time to scale, not to start up soon for PLAN.
Click to expand...
The 075s could also force generate crews for future carriers too.
 
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