00X/004 future nuclear CATOBAR carrier thread

[AndrewS]

The late decision to switch from steam to EMALS and the problems with the Fujian island were probably also factors.

We are at 3 carriers now. With the 004 being ready in the next 2-3 years we'd be at 4. There are also quite a lot of rumors that Jiangnan is already working on a conventional (Fuijan sister) carrier. So assuming that's true, we'd already be at 5. Yes, not six but still absolutely amazing production tempo and not completely impossible to achieve 6 around 2036-2038.

Given the observed and expected military procurement rates in the Chinese Navy and Air Force (~twice the US rate), by 2030, I expect the 1IC should be pretty secure.

So weapons system procurement should shift to distant power projection to the 2IC and beyond. That means a lot more aircraft carriers.

My guess is that today, China will simultaneously build a nuclear carrier and also a conventional carrier. So by 2030, there should be mature carrier designs ready for serial production.

So if US-China relations are still bad, I wouldn't be surprised if 4 carriers (from both shipyards) are built between 2030-2035.

That would mean 9 carriers in total in the aforementioned 2036-2038 timeframe

Combined with the Air Force and Missile Force, this would radically change the strategic balance, as China could aim for air-sea superiority to the 2IC and a bit further beyond.

 

[Blitzo]

2028 is still crazy

(as in its implications, not its likelihood)

If they are able to manage a 2028 launch, if they are able to spin up everything sensibly, could entail a 2031 commissioning; in some ways at lower relative readiness than CV-16/17/18 due to using a new propulsion system, but potentially at higher relative readiness in other domains such as maturity of airwing, catapult, deck crew, and virtually all other subsystems.

With the joining of the hull sections, it does look more and more like this may actually be a carrier, at which point we are basically just waiting for hangar sections to be installed to confirm it (or maybe flight deck overhang, or even the island, as definitive confirmations if one wants to be like that).
From there, the matter to confirm is whether this carrier is actually a CVN (which I think can only be properly concluded by structural completion of the aircraft's top side having no smoke stack).... and during all of this, wait to see what JN actually has cooking.

 

[TheWanderWit]

The late decision to switch from steam to EMALS and the problems with the Fujian island were probably also factors.

We are at 3 carriers now. With the 004 being ready in the next 2-3 years we'd be at 4. There are also quite a lot of rumors that Jiangnan is already working on a conventional (Fuijan sister) carrier. So assuming that's true, we'd already be at 5. Yes, not six but still absolutely amazing production tempo and not completely impossible to achieve 6 around 2036-2038.

There were problems with the Fujian's island during construction?

 

[ismellcopium]

If they are able to manage a 2028 launch, if they are able to spin up everything sensibly, could entail a 2031 commissioning; in some ways at lower relative readiness than CV-16/17/18 due to using a new propulsion system, but potentially at higher relative readiness in other domains such as maturity of airwing, catapult, deck crew, and virtually all other subsystems.

With the joining of the hull sections, it does look more and more like this may actually be a carrier, at which point we are basically just waiting for hangar sections to be installed to confirm it (or maybe flight deck overhang, or even the island, as definitive confirmations if one wants to be like that).
From there, the matter to confirm is whether this carrier is actually a CVN (which I think can only be properly concluded by structural completion of the aircraft's top side having no smoke stack).... and during all of this, wait to see what JN actually has cooking.

2027 H2 launch seems very possible too imo, & I'd guess being the first nuclear CV notwithstanding, familiarization/time to commissioning probably wouldn't take quite as long as Fujian which was the first non-STOBAR & first EMALS equipped vessel (plus first to introduce J-35, AWACS etc), ie overall leap will be smaller.