00X/004 future nuclear CATOBAR carrier thread
- Thread starter AETHER
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Looks like the module to the left was moved to join with the other module. You can use the greyish structure on top as a reference.
For note, this satellite photo was taken just today (October 16th) by Copernicus.
According to SOYO, the overall length of the cojoined section is roughly around 172-185 meters per rough measurements on satellite imagery. For reference, the central section of the Ford-class CVN while under construction inside the Newport News drydock is about 175-178 meters:
In the meantime, it has been noted that the hull construction and assembly works may have been accelerated, and the current stage of work is likely equivalent to Fujian sometime in 2019.
There are some who estimated that this ship could be launched as early as 2027, though I'd say that 2028 is a more cautious and safer guess.
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No, not at all. Just look at 003 Fujian. When she was still under construction in the dock, it was generally believed that it would not be put into service until 2026-2027, and the earliest time of IOC would be around 2030. Now the result is obvious there. PLAN still holds China speed. By the same token, the progress of Type 004 will only get faster than we imagine, not slower.
Sorry, i'm not that upbeat as to the timescale. Dalian and 004 are late, i don't know why Dalian didn't immediately followed with another carrier after Shandong's launch in 2017. The americans were launching Fords 6 years apart, so even assuming delays caused by covid and an assumed learning curve being a CVN and all, 004 should have been launched by now, 8 years apart from Shandong. Of course, rumours of accelerated 004 construction as of now are great, but still i can't see how the goal of 6 CVs ready by 2035 can be met, at most 5, this assuming Jiangnan will be building another carrier by then.
Guess all the pathological underestimators are in for another shock this time. It's like how quickly 076 & 093B came together is forgotten already.
The late decision to switch from steam to EMALS and the problems with the Fujian island were probably also factors.
We are at 3 carriers now. With the 004 being ready in the next 2-3 years we'd be at 4. There are also quite a lot of rumors that Jiangnan is already working on a conventional (Fuijan sister) carrier. So assuming that's true, we'd already be at 5. Yes, not six but still absolutely amazing production tempo and not completely impossible to achieve 6 around 2036-2038.
A conventional (Fuijan sister) carrier would make a lot of sense. Could even see a family of four but if the CVN is progressing smoothly, why not stopping at two.