00X/004 future nuclear CATOBAR carrier thread

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wangcard

Just Hatched
Registered Member
Dalian seems to have confirmed it.
On December 18, Chengdu Nuclear Power Research and Design Engineering Co., Ltd. won the Dacheng (2024)-13 site on the east side of Xingquan Road and north side of Yongquan Lane, Qianyan Village, Dalian Bay Street, Ganjingzi District, with a base price of 17.45 million yuan.
The plot covers an area of 7497.99m and a building area of 9230m (excluding the construction area of equipment rooms, underground and semi-underground garages).
For 40 years of business and finance land
 
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ACuriousPLAFan

Brigadier
Registered Member
wangcard said:
Dalian seems to have confirmed it.
On December 18, Chengdu Nuclear Power Research and Design Engineering Co., Ltd. won the Dacheng (2024)-13 site on the east side of Xingquan Road and north side of Yongquan Lane, Qianyan Village, Dalian Bay Street, Ganjingzi District, with a base price of 17.45 million yuan.
The plot covers an area of 7497.99m and a building area of 9230m (excluding the construction area of equipment rooms, underground and semi-underground garages).
For 40 years of business and finance land
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Mind knowing how is that related?

Though, admittedly, the news of the 004 CVN having started construction at Dalian's Dagushan site since at least early this year if not sometime in 2023 has been around for quite some time.

The tender notice for a complete removal and rebuilt of the island mockup superstructure at Wuhan's Huangjiahu institute certainly lend credibility to this development, judging from histories for previous carriers.
 
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ACuriousPLAFan

Brigadier
Registered Member
Speaking of which, posts from Shenyang's J-XDS thread moved here to avoid derailing the original thread.

Lethe said:
There is a lot of talk around that J-XDS is intended to be a carrier-compatible design. It isn't clear to me how robustly sourced that information is, and I would be interested to read some informed commentary on the likely low-airspeed recovery characteristics of the aircraft as observed.

Nonetheless, if we are to take the rumours at face value, i.e. that the observed aircraft is a prototype for a large (i.e. 2xWS-15) manned naval combat aircraft that would debut in the mid-late 2030s, I would note with some satisfaction that I have long argued for just such a larger aircraft to complement J-35 in PLAN's future carrier air wings. This series of posts from late 2023 is my most robust presentation of the idea, against the notion that J-35/Super Hornet/F-35C (and to a lesser extent Rafale and MiG-29K) have converged on the "Goldilocks" size for naval combat aircraft, but I have been advancing the same basic line of argument since before J-35 was even confirmed as PLAN's near-term solution, as with this series of posts from late 2017. So, if we are to take these rumours at face value then, while I don't want to say "I told you so", well... I told you so.

Ok, ego off. Please resume photography and analysis. :)
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SinoAmericanCW said:
I agree with the general thrust of your post, but I expect SHENGAD's IOC to occur around 2032, not in the mid- to late 2030s. The latter dates would imply a longer development process than J-20, and I don't see why that would be the case.
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Lethe said:
I certainly wouldn't exclude an earlier IOC date along the lines you suggest, but I prefer to be conservative about these things and occasionally pleasantly surprised, rather than optimistic and regularly disappointed. Beyond that, one reason why this aircraft might spend longer in development than J-20 is because having J-35 in the inventory affords PLAN the luxury of doing so. Early 2030s, J-35 will be a modern, performant and still new aircraft that PLAN may well still be getting up to speed on in terms of training, doctrine, the full range of payload integrations, all occurring in the context of a still-evolving carrier development program, i.e. the 004 CVN. Allowing J-XDS to cook for a few more years and emerge either at a higher level of maturity or with a greater level of technology would not be the worst thing in the world.

There is a counter-argument to be made regarding deteriorating strategic circumstances requiring maximum capability to be delivered in minimum timeframe to maintain deterrence, etc. But I think PLAN's choice not to maximise short-term carrier capability by producing additional units of the 003 design suggests that, even if this mode of thought is entertained elsewhere, it is not entertained in relation to the carrier program, where the view is to the longer term, which in turn has implications for the urgency of J-XDS (or other future generation naval combat aircraft).
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SinoAmericanCW said:
On second thought, I see your point.

I would amend my argument: I expect SHENGAD, in its land-based variant, to enter service in the early 2030s. The carrier-borne version may well reach IOC a few years later.
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tankphobia said:
Would China have enough carriers real estate to host an additional model of fighter before late 2030s? If we get 004 before 2030, that's still only an additional wing of aircraft, they can easily manufacture enough ~50 J-35s/J-15s to fill out the air wing, plus UAV/Helicopters will also take up some of that space so there's really no need to rush Shenyang's model until catapult equipped carrier numbers/operation reaches maturity.
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According to the latest (or one of the latest) paid 察话会Au podcast by the Guancha Trios (which, unfortunately, I have no access to - Courtesy of @vincent for the news), particularly from Yankee:

1. China is indeed building two proper aircraft carriers simultaneously right now (not including the currently-under-sea-trials CV-18 Fujian);
2. One carrier is conventionally-powered (presumably CV-19), while the other is nuclear-powered (presumably CVN-20); and
3. The nuclear-powered carrier will be much bigger in order to accommodate the operations of future 6th-gen carrier-based fighters (presumably naval variant of the J-XDS).

(Phrases of my own are in Italic)

Given the above development, the CV-19 is likely to be built at Jiangnan, whereas CVN-20 is likely to be built at Dalian's Dagushan (not exactly brand-new developments per se).

As for the CVN-20 - Much bigger relative to Fujian or Ford? I don't think we can know for sure, for the time being...
 
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