00X/004 future nuclear CATOBAR carrier thread

[BoraTas]

I think the Fujian being a single ship class is highly likely. Frankly speaking, it wasn't an ambitious design. It derived its propulsion and hull from the 001 and 002. It is evident when you look at it. Highly angled hull to accommodate the much larger deck, the shape and locations of the elevators, sponsons, shape of the stern, a slight distance between the island and edge of the flight deck, etc all signal that a lot of the design elements were carried. That is not a necessarily bad thing but it tells us that they did want to save some budget and time. They didn't develop a gas turbine based propulsion despite its known and big benefits too.

Because of this, I believe they view the Fujian as a stepping stone rather than something they would build in numbers. The real deal they will build in numbers and spent money to design from the scratch is the 004.

 

[windsclouds2030]

If you are trying to point out some "controverse" of my post, I think your calculation is based on wrong logics. China's transformed from an algriculture scoiety to be equal or surpassing the west in less than 70 years (from 1949 to 2020s). It took Europe more than 250 years to reach todays position. But we know that catching up takes a lot less time, and nobody should expect China to continue at 3.7 times of speed of others from now on.

Just to clarify some possible ambiguity, are you trying to say China will (continue to) proceed faster or slower (from 3.7x) from now on? Esp. in the discussion about the entire CVN build-up matter.

 

[taxiya]

Just to clarify some possible ambiguity, are you trying to say China will (continue to) proceed faster or slower (from 3.7x) from now on? Esp. in the discussion about the entire CVN build-up matter.

I was only talking specifically about building and commissioning the first CVN. I was trying to illustrate that China will be much faster than US in many area, but from some point on China's speed will be slower than China's speed in the past, especially after being ahead of everyone else. Whether that speed of being a leader is higher or lower than US used to be can not be determined. We should never make machenical deduction and prediction of the future, therefor my 3.7x was only a metaphoric analogy to the 11 months in the post that I replied to which used machenical deduction. 3.7x is either as rediculous as 11 months, or as reasonable as 11 months.

In short, in seriousness the post that I responded was either a joke or fell in

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which is philosophically wrong. My conclusion is that China was very fast in the past when catching up, it would usually take less time than the US to do things. After being on par of US (about now), China may still remain faster than US in advancing, but won't be as faster as the past.

With all being said, my answer to you is that China is likely being faster than US from now on from single ship to entire CVN build-up, but may not be staggeringly faster.

 

[henrik]

Any info on which shipyard is responsible for this tender?

As we see this tender offer, the building of the ship modules is already going on.

 

[charles18]

The Fujian will eventually take almost 9 years from the start of construction to entry into service. The PLAN's first 100,000-ton nuclear powered super carrier will certainly take even longer.
.......

Instead of asking how long is it going to take the Chinese to build a CVN,
I think a more interesting question is how many do they ultimately plan on building?

 

[TK3600]

First of all, called it. I made the conclusion of no sister 003 and nuclear 004 a year ago. It was based on developmemt of niclear engine and the fact no 003 clone was built long after fitting out finished.

My next prediction is after 004, China will shift from 1 to 2 carriers under construction a time. And if they are super ambitious, 2 004 a time. This is the logical conclusion if they want Taiwan in 2030s. Ships go from build to service ready in cycles of 4 years.

If 004 finish build by 2028, 005 start construction. If batch of 2, they are ready to fight by 2032. 2nd batch 005 ready by 2035, faster if they can rush ships of matured design.

2025: 3 carriers.
2028: 4
2031: 6
2034/2035: 8

By 2035 China can gather a combined carrier fleet comparable to US.

 

[Blitzo]

First of all, called it. I made the conclusion of no sister 003 and nuclear 004 a year ago. It was based on developmemt of niclear engine and the fact no 003 clone was built long after fitting out finished.

My next prediction is after 004, China will shift from 1 to 2 carriers under construction a time. And if they are super ambitious, 2 004 a time. This is the logical conclusion if they want Taiwan in 2030s. Ships go from build to service ready in cycles of 4 years.

If 004 finish build by 2028, 005 start construction. If batch of 2, they are ready to fight by 2032. 2nd batch 005 ready by 2035, faster if they can rush ships of matured design.

2025: 3 carriers.
2028: 4
2031: 6
2034/2035: 8

By 2035 China can gather a combined carrier fleet comparable to US.

At present it is very unlikely for 004 to have its construction finished by 2028, and certainly impossible for it to be in service by 2028.

 

[TK3600]

At present it is very unlikely for 004 to have its construction finished by 2028, and certainly impossible for it to be in service by 2028.

It should be on sea trial by 2028. I define that as finish because 005 construction may proceed.

 

[TK3600]

By 2028 I expect J-xx 6th gen to be internally well defined. 005 would be build with that as central consideration. This would make 005 a matured future proof design suitable of serial production.

 

[Blitzo]

It should be on sea trial by 2028. I define that as finish because 005 construction may proceed.

I would be surprised if 004 will even be launched by 2028, let alone on sea trial.