My thoughts on Russia's buildup in Syria:
Why is Russia Readying to Fight in Syria?
An insight into the recent Russian military buildup in Syria
24 September 2015
By Bilal Khan
The past several weeks have seen Russia rapidly bolster its military presence in Latakia, Syria’s coastal western region and one of Bashar al-Assad’s remaining strongholds. Latakia is considered the heartland of Syria’s Alawite minority and the core of Bashar’s internal support.
This month we have seen Russia deploy as many as 28 combat aircraft: 12 Su-24 fighter-bomber aircraft, 12 Su-25 close air support and ground attack aircraft and 4 Su-30M multi-role fighters. In addition, it has also reportedly sent 20 helicopters. Overall, this is not exactly a ‘small’ force, especially in terms of the apparent ground attack capability being built in Syria.
That said, it would be premature to suggest that the Russian military buildup in Syria is an indication of Moscow’s willingness to engage in fighting in that country. In fact, the U.S itself seems to think that Russia’s deployments in Syria are for maintaining a presence more than for fighting. For example, U.S Secretary of State John Kerry said, “It is the judgment of our military and most experts that the level and type represents basically force protection, a level of protection for their deployment to an air base given the fact that it is in an area of conflict.” (). In other words, Russia wants to maintain a physical presence in Syria, and the weapons it is sending there for use by its forces are likely intended to defend that presence, not necessarily weaken the capacities of others, including groups such as Jabhat an-Nusra, ISIS and others.
But it is worth noting however that Russia is apparently looking to ensure that it has a dense presence in Syria. For example, Jane’s noted that in addition to the airport in Latakia, the Russians were building two additional bases in the country, one 7km north of Latakia and the other 3km to the west (). Jane’s also noted that it is possible that the Russians could deploy as many as 1,000 military personnel at the airport alone (). Overall, the Russians are entrenching themselves within Syria quite firmly, essentially making them an actor to deal with in any scenario involving Bashar or his regime.
A well-entrenched presence and a resulting seat on any post-war discussion on Syria are the most likely objectives behind the Russian military buildup in Syria. Why this and not something more decisive, such as action against ISIS? To answer that, it would be a good idea to study the nature of Moscow’s ties with Damascus.
Understanding Russian-Syrian Ties
The root of Russian-Syrian ties is that of defence, particularly commercial transactions and technical support. While it is true that the Russians have been the modern Syrian state’s most prominent supplier of arms, it would be inaccurate to suggest that those arms sales translated into complete political influence in Damascus or unflinching support for Bashar and his regime. Russia is at heart a regional power, it is concerned about its borders first and foremost; issues in more distant lands, such as the Middle East, are generally an outer concern compared to the affairs of Russia’s direct neighbours. Just review the commitment of Moscow to the issues of the Middle East versus Ukraine to see the difference in the resources allocated to addressing each concern.
You can read the rest here:
Why is Russia Readying to Fight in Syria?
An insight into the recent Russian military buildup in Syria
24 September 2015
By Bilal Khan
The past several weeks have seen Russia rapidly bolster its military presence in Latakia, Syria’s coastal western region and one of Bashar al-Assad’s remaining strongholds. Latakia is considered the heartland of Syria’s Alawite minority and the core of Bashar’s internal support.
This month we have seen Russia deploy as many as 28 combat aircraft: 12 Su-24 fighter-bomber aircraft, 12 Su-25 close air support and ground attack aircraft and 4 Su-30M multi-role fighters. In addition, it has also reportedly sent 20 helicopters. Overall, this is not exactly a ‘small’ force, especially in terms of the apparent ground attack capability being built in Syria.
That said, it would be premature to suggest that the Russian military buildup in Syria is an indication of Moscow’s willingness to engage in fighting in that country. In fact, the U.S itself seems to think that Russia’s deployments in Syria are for maintaining a presence more than for fighting. For example, U.S Secretary of State John Kerry said, “It is the judgment of our military and most experts that the level and type represents basically force protection, a level of protection for their deployment to an air base given the fact that it is in an area of conflict.” (). In other words, Russia wants to maintain a physical presence in Syria, and the weapons it is sending there for use by its forces are likely intended to defend that presence, not necessarily weaken the capacities of others, including groups such as Jabhat an-Nusra, ISIS and others.
But it is worth noting however that Russia is apparently looking to ensure that it has a dense presence in Syria. For example, Jane’s noted that in addition to the airport in Latakia, the Russians were building two additional bases in the country, one 7km north of Latakia and the other 3km to the west (). Jane’s also noted that it is possible that the Russians could deploy as many as 1,000 military personnel at the airport alone (). Overall, the Russians are entrenching themselves within Syria quite firmly, essentially making them an actor to deal with in any scenario involving Bashar or his regime.
A well-entrenched presence and a resulting seat on any post-war discussion on Syria are the most likely objectives behind the Russian military buildup in Syria. Why this and not something more decisive, such as action against ISIS? To answer that, it would be a good idea to study the nature of Moscow’s ties with Damascus.
Understanding Russian-Syrian Ties
The root of Russian-Syrian ties is that of defence, particularly commercial transactions and technical support. While it is true that the Russians have been the modern Syrian state’s most prominent supplier of arms, it would be inaccurate to suggest that those arms sales translated into complete political influence in Damascus or unflinching support for Bashar and his regime. Russia is at heart a regional power, it is concerned about its borders first and foremost; issues in more distant lands, such as the Middle East, are generally an outer concern compared to the affairs of Russia’s direct neighbours. Just review the commitment of Moscow to the issues of the Middle East versus Ukraine to see the difference in the resources allocated to addressing each concern.
You can read the rest here:
