Not sure I agree with that.
Russia had an unique window of opportunity in 2014 where Ukraine was in chaos, Russian loyalty among the population was stronger, and most importantly, NATO training & support had yet to materialize on the ground. If, instead of fighting a proxy war with NATO in eastern Ukraine for eight years, it simply pulled off a Crimea with those regions, it likely would be in a much stronger position today.
Of course, we are not aware of what communications happened behind closed doors behind the US and Russia, at the time. Perhaps Putin struck a deal with the US that he'd stop at Crimea, in exchange for just "moderate" sanctions. We don't know. But it wouldn't surprise me if the strength of the 2022 sanctions was also the consequence of the eight years the West has had to develop contingencies against further Russian aggression. In that event, Russia would have been better off taking more the first time.
Fact is, in the eight years since 2014, Ukraine became much more hardened as a political and military opponent due to NATO training, equipment support, internal purges within the Ukraine political establishment to create an unified cause against Russia, and continued media and intellectual consensus building to secure the population's hostility towards Russia. So that, by the time 2022 rolled around, Russia faced an entrenched, fortified, and battle-hardened Ukraine that was firmly in the Western camp and which could count on the general loyalty of its military officers and main population groups.
I am of the strong belief, in this sense, that Russia's 2022 invasion was an act of desperation and not from a position of strength. They were well aware that the Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine were getting their teeth kicked in by a new, more powerful Ukraine and that further NATO support in the form of a de facto alliance was just on the horizon. Putin knew that status quo meant the defeat of the Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine and the continued build up of a modernized, combined arms force by US military trainers, which could soon threaten to take back Crimea and possibly push even further into Russia's back yard.
In this respect, once his proxy in Washington - Trump - lost the election, Putin knew that the writing was on the wall - it was now or never.
