100%, Taiwan is a big red herring for US. Even the crazy MSM admit how difficult it is. It almost makes me think US is threatening Taiwan as a distraction and it is not its primary strategy.Threats to invade China really just exposes how much on the back foot America is now on.
Contrary to what US will admit, it was never confident in its ability to take over Taiwan. There were many good chances for America to pull off their version of the crimea annexation, when China was not militarised at all and the only thing China could do to stop an invasion would be to lob tactical nukes at US formations.
Even then, America didn't dare to invade.
So that they're betting their future on this, in such a late hour when China has military parity, reeks of desparation.
As long as China can prevent a pearl harbor style surprise attack against the navy followed by a fait accompli landing of US invaders on its island, moves which America was never confident of pulling off even again Jiang Zemin's China, they'll never be able to do anything.
Between near peers that can threaten MAD, war becomes a battle of psychology. That's why I still wish Xi didn't mention US by name in his recent address. Such a immature country should not be acknowledged. It only feeds into their narcissistic tendencies and encourages them. You can see how happy MSM was just to hear "USA" mentioned a single time by Xi in a very long speech. Moreover, China should not commit its populace to the idea of red line at Taiwan even if Chinese leaders do, just to keep the country flexible to change in strategy. Mobilize the population to focus on China's current overall wellbeing and prosperity, not tie it to an external outcome defined by someone else. Say "we must become self-sufficient", not "we must 'win' the tech war against the enemy". What @Eventine wrote is right.This black guy is a genius. Agree with him on everything. However, the US is working toward forcing Xi Jinping and CCP to reclaim Taiwan, or else they are going to lose support domestically in China due to people's nationalistic spirit. They are forcing Xi's hand.
If such things as weapons sales to Taiwan and powerful officials of Taiwan and the US going back and forth there persist, or if they, I don't know, make some giant military exercises between Taiwan and the US, it's going to make people in China angrier and angrier.
Xi and CCP are rational, and they would like to take back Taiwan with 100% certainty in 2035 for example, however, it seems that the US is forcing them to take Taiwan with 75% certainty in 2027. For the US it's better 25% chance of victory than a 0% chance of victory.
And as for why they didn't act earlier, it's because of their imperial hubris, "American exceptionalism" and other bullshit, basically, before they underestimated and mocked China always before China grew to such an extent now that they can't do anything to stop it and gamble.
"Taiwan did not have fair elections. SeeSeePee interfere in election like they do in Canada. Current government is illegitimate. Taiwan has always had authoritarian history. Clearly, we will only acknowledge Juan Guaidó- oh sorry, read it wrong- President Tsai and DPP as the rightful government despite all evidence to the contrary. Our US Marines will kill protestors and suppress dissent while peacekeeping there."Kinda meaningless for DPP to get "massive boost" in "diplomatic presence" in the west only to get trounced in elections at home.
I don't think China would lose anything from apologizing. It would definitely soften some Vietnamese though.
There is time and place for "reparations". Giving gift now is sign of low confidence and "currying favor before the battle". Do your good deeds when the battle between superpowers is near it's conclusion: it will be a sign of confidence in your victory and indirectly show "I will be magnanimous as the new leader".
Last edited:
