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Feima

Junior Member
Registered Member
ACuriousPLAFan said:
I don't care if this can be related to the current discussion or not, just wanna share it here. But let's hope the implied case can hold true.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1625859094790934528
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Long ago I read a book in Chinese that offered a theory: All dynastic founders were capable men who gathered other strong, able men around them and led them wisely. After decades of war to overthrow the previous regime, and sometimes a century or more of warlordism, the new ruling elite and general population were war-weary, went about rebuilding and brought stability to the new dynasty. After some decades, the rulers, who could be sons, grandsons or great grandsons of the founder, had grown soft in the new prosperity. Invariably some crisis happened, could be power struggle from court intrigue, natural disasters or foreign invasions. If the new dynasty survived, it will stabilize and last for much longer. Otherwise it fell, and other strong men would rise to found another dynasty.

Above theory, called the "new dynasty bottleneck test", is said to be supported by the data from the few thousand years of Chinese history. For Qin, history tells us Li Shi and the eunuch Zhao Gao conspired to kill Yin Zheng's capable older son and put the useless second son in power, so that they could dominate him. For Sui, 2nd emperor is well known as a brutal mad tyrant. For Ming, the founder's son Zhu Di fought a civil war and wrested power from his nephew but he proved a capable ruler and the dynasty survived.

For the current dynasty, question is, was the Cultural Revolution the bottleneck test, or is it the current all-but-kinetic war from the global hegemon?
 
vincent

vincent

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
Feima said:
Long ago I read a book in Chinese that offered a theory: All dynastic founders were capable men who gathered other strong, able men around them and led them wisely. After decades of war to overthrow the previous regime, and sometimes a century or more of warlordism, the new ruling elite and general population were war-weary, went about rebuilding and brought stability to the new dynasty. After some decades, the rulers, who could be sons, grandsons or great grandsons of the founder, had grown soft in the new prosperity. Invariably some crisis happened, could be power struggle from court intrigue, natural disasters or foreign invasions. If the new dynasty survived, it will stabilize and last for much longer. Otherwise it fell, and other strong men would rise to found another dynasty.

Above theory, called the "new dynasty bottleneck test", is said to be supported by the data from the few thousand years of Chinese history. For Qin, history tells us Li Shi and the eunuch Zhao Gao conspired to kill Yin Zheng's capable older son and put the useless second son in power, so that they could dominate him. For Sui, 2nd emperor is well known as a brutal mad tyrant. For Ming, the founder's son Zhu Di fought a civil war and wrested power from his nephew but he proved a capable ruler and the dynasty survived.

For the current dynasty, question is, was the Cultural Revolution the bottleneck test, or is it the current all-but-kinetic war from the global hegemon?
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Your post can be summarized as 生于忧患 死于安乐. One make progress under pressure and grow complacent when living with comfort. As long as there are external threats, China will do fine.
 
solarz

solarz

Brigadier
vincent said:
Your post can be summarized as 生于忧患 死于安乐. One make progress under pressure and grow complacent when living with comfort. As long as there are external threats, China will do fine.
Click to expand...

Nothing lasts forever, and the folk-wisdom on the dynastic cycle is a vast oversimplification of historical facts.

The Han dynasty, for example, is actually two different dynasties, where the later one simply picked up the former one's name for political expediency.

There's also the theory that the rise and fall of Chinese dynasties were tied to climate change. The "Mandate of Heaven" may be more literal than people think! It's an uncomfortable theory because it implies that those disastrous periods of China's history weren't due to human mistakes, but rather due to environmental factors that were out humanity's control, and that even today, we may have a lot less control than we presume.
 
Breadbox

Breadbox

Junior Member
Registered Member
solarz said:
Nothing lasts forever, and the folk-wisdom on the dynastic cycle is a vast oversimplification of historical facts.

The Han dynasty, for example, is actually two different dynasties, where the later one simply picked up the former one's name for political expediency.

There's also the theory that the rise and fall of Chinese dynasties were tied to climate change. The "Mandate of Heaven" may be more literal than people think! It's an uncomfortable theory because it implies that those disastrous periods of China's history weren't due to human mistakes, but rather due to environmental factors that were out humanity's control, and that even today, we may have a lot less control than we presume.
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I don't think it's so much climate change as much as it as with
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, it gets a bad rep in modern day as emerging technology and social trends made it obsolete, but it is absolutely true back in the day, every dynasty will inevitable be rocked by massive peasant rebellion no matter what. None of it is is due to human mistake, no one could have escaped it.

Europe and Japan won't be experiencing such cycles as Europe saw massive population loss during the collapse of the Western Roman Empire while Japan is a tribal backwater for most of its history, which means the grass root aren't nearly as numerous and farming land aren't nearly as scarce while regional nobles each have their private armies which can quickly put down rebellion on the spot.
 
9dashline

9dashline

Captain
Registered Member
solarz said:
Nothing lasts forever, and the folk-wisdom on the dynastic cycle is a vast oversimplification of historical facts.

The Han dynasty, for example, is actually two different dynasties, where the later one simply picked up the former one's name for political expediency.

There's also the theory that the rise and fall of Chinese dynasties were tied to climate change. The "Mandate of Heaven" may be more literal than people think! It's an uncomfortable theory because it implies that those disastrous periods of China's history weren't due to human mistakes, but rather due to environmental factors that were out humanity's control, and that even today, we may have a lot less control than we presume.
Click to expand...
EROEI
 
luosifen

luosifen

Senior Member
Registered Member
Chinese pet owners might have to switch to non-American supply for pet food:

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By Zhang Han Published: Feb 15, 2023 05:48 PM
This photo taken with a drone shows portions of a Norfolk and Southern freight train that derailed on Feb. 3 night in East Palestine, Ohio are still on fire at mid-day Feb. 4, 2023. Photo: VCG

This photo taken with a drone shows portions of a Norfolk and Southern freight train that derailed on Feb. 3 night in East Palestine, Ohio are still on fire at mid-day Feb. 4, 2023. Photo: VCG
Chinese pet owners have expressed concerns over pet food safety of American brands, following the serious Ohio chemical leak, as many of their frequently consume brands, such as Orijen and Acana, are headquartered in the neighboring state of Kentucky.

Another brand among those of highest concern is Blue Buffalo, whose headquarters is located in Indiana, west to Ohio.

A "map of American pet food brands" has been reposted frequently on China's Twitter-like Weibo, with more brands like RAWZ, Fromm, Instinct, Stella&Chewy's and Nutro marked in accordance with their headquarters' locations on a US map.

As the contamination could take weeks or potentially months to affect the locally sourced ingredients and the manufacturing process, some Chinese pet owners have already begun to stockpile supplies.

A Beijing-based cat owner, who went by the name Fanfan, told the Global Times on Wednesday that she just ordered three 5.4-kilogram bags of dry food in case the contamination would impact food safety in the future.

"I have read all sorts of media reports, some said it's 'Chernobyl 2.0' while others claimed local environment is within normal scope…But I don't want to take the risk," Fanfan said.

Fanfan is accustomed to feeding her cat Orijen, but she has decided to do some research on European brands. Some also started to consider domestic Chinese brands.

The Global Times tried to contact Orijen and Acana, but they failed to respond as of time of press.

According to a report released by e-commerce giant Tmall early in January 2023, China's consumption of imported pet food increased by 25 percent annually from 2016-21.

The pet economy volume in 2022 was estimated to top 494 billion yuan ($67.4 billion) and more than half of that was pet food.

Of more than 300 foreign companies that are permitted to export pet food to China, 80 are from the US, customs data shows.

The aftermath of an Ohio train derailment incident on February 3, which resulted in toxic chemicals being released into the environment, has left the local community reeling.

Fifty of the 150 cars veered off the tracks after the derailment with Vinyl chloride slowly released into the air from five of those cars before crews ignited the leak to extinguish the highly flammable, toxic chemicals "in a controlled environment."

Local residents were first ordered to leave, but allowed to return on February 8 after authorities claimed real-time air and water monitoring did not find any contaminant levels above screening limits.

However, community fears and concerns have not been dispelled. Many residents living near the affected area took to social media to report unusual and concerning symptoms presenting in the wake of the incident.
 
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